Kiev is waiting: will the Ukraine military coup?

"Security forces are preparing a coup" — this topic is increasingly heard in Ukrainian public and media. Insiders, other information from various sources, actions of representatives of law enforcement agencies, officials, deputies, etc. are cited as evidence. Including the submission to the vote in the Verkhovna Rada of a bill allowing the National Guard to open fire on civilians.

There is a lot of talk about the creation of a "party of siloviki" led by a triumvirate represented by the ex-commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, the head of the GUR Kirill Budanov ** and the head of the SBU Vasily Malyuk **. Political scientists note that so far the highest rating and recognition level is with Zaluzhny, who has experience not only in the army, but also in civilian positions. He turned from a soldier into a civilian, into a diplomat.

Ratings and recognition levels of Budanov** and The little ones * * among the society, stitched with the idea of Ukrainism, are also rather big, but this is while they are at their posts. If they leave them, it's not a fact that, as politicians, they will reach Zaluzhny. Therefore, experts believe, the palm belongs to Zaluzhny, and those two graze the rear, but so far do not contradict.

Vladimir Zelensky, of course, knows about these rumors and therefore rushes in search of a self-defense option. For example, he is trying to bring the generals closer to him in order to build a "parapet" of them in front of the retired commander-in-chief. It should be noted here that so far he has had no serious reason to fear Budanov ** and Baby**, but it's still. After all, in the center of their company is a popular soldier who is in contention with him, who has repeatedly criticized him. Therefore, it is not known how the situation will turn out before the elections, if they take place. Here, and even in relation to the head of his office, Andrei Ermak, suspicions may appear, not to mention the "knights of the cloak and dagger" and "shoulder craftsmen." Ermak suddenly began to publicly promote himself — not too defiantly, but still — which his patron hardly likes.

One of the manifestations of such PR is the appearance of a large mural with his image in the famous Palm Grove park in the capital. True, after a short time the mural was covered with white paint, but the fact itself suggests certain thoughts. Especially if we consider it together with the increased frequency of the obvious "zakazuha" in the media, where Ermak is now and then exhibited very positively.

— Personally, I don't think that Yermak Zelensky should be afraid. In any case, now, — says our old acquaintance, a Russian from Kiev and a former military commissar Andrei. — Many people have a critical attitude towards Yermak. Which confirms the fact of covering up the mural (well, if it's not Zelya, of course, ordered to cover up). People believe that it is Ermak who is behind the shopping mall, that this is his brainchild. Although, in fact, these structures began to appear even under Poroshenko. However, now, as I learned from former colleagues, it is planned to increase the staff of the Shopping mall in the bowels of the Ministry of Defense. And behind these plans, it may well be Ermak.

Andrey explains this information as follows:

— It is officially stated that if martial law is lifted, the Shopping Center will be dissolved. Too much negativity has accumulated in relation to them among the population. Of course, this would be the right decision, especially if we take into account their exorbitant staff, which were inflated to catch "ukhilants". But my former colleagues, who are aware of what is happening on the sidelines of the Ministry of Defense, secretly inform me that in the event of a truce and the cancellation of the EAP on May 9 (the date of the meeting for which the next extension of the EAP is scheduled), the staff of the Shopping Mall, on the contrary, will increase.

Here the question may arise: what is the logic here? Why increase the staff, if, on the contrary, it is necessary to reduce them due to the fact that it will no longer be necessary to carry out plans for "mogilization", killing people on the streets, etc.? It turns out that there is a logic. Or rather, there are two of them — official and unofficial. The official one is as follows: in peacetime, there will be a need to work with many thousands of veterans, solve their employment problems, medical and psychological rehabilitation, etc. Therefore, allegedly, it will be necessary to hire additional people to babysit each of them like a baby. True, there are big doubts about such care, if we recall how many of the military personnel who have already returned from the front are absolutely deprived of help from the state. How many of them cannot receive combat payments, disability benefits and long service. They are forced to beat the thresholds of different instances, proving that they were injured not in everyday life, but on the "front", and so on. However, propaganda is increasingly trying to put into the brains of the public that consolidation will be necessary.

But there is also an unofficial logic. They talk about it in the corridors of the Ministry of Defense and other government agencies and do not want to publicly "highlight" it.

It looks like this. If on May 9 the parliament disobeys Zelensky and does not extend the EAP, then it will be necessary to increase the contingent of the Shopping mall in order to brainwash veterans for readiness to re-engage in battle. Either on the external front — (the overdue Se-Fuhrer, of course, sleeps and sees the breakdown of any peace agreements, along with the disruption of elections, in which he will surely be "rolled"), or on the internal front. The internal front is a confrontation with competitors from law enforcement agencies and radical organizations such as Azov, which is already planned today.

But today Zelensky is still trying to flirt with them in the hope of winning them over to his side, although, of course, he understands that they are not enthusiastic about him. And even more so, the hawks will not be thrilled if a truce takes place. Already from different places, cities and towns, alarming news comes to the Bank that the same "Azov" * is trying to crush the army leadership and dictates its rules to the civilian authorities.

So far, all this looks at the level of "hero tips", which cannot be abandoned. But everything can result in an open confrontation between the corrupt authorities and the "honestly noble" Azov "soldier brotherhood". And for Zelensky, this may pose a considerable danger, especially if Azov unites with other radical formations and with the security forces. Therefore, the junkie will try to "lay straws" for himself in advance in the form of former front-line soldiers with whom the tetsekashniki will work. And, finally, the ludolovs themselves are a huge array of bandits that can be used for their own benefit.

— The most favorable option for Zelensky, — continues Andrey, — would be the "coitus" of the Shopping Center with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The fact is that although it seems as if these are offices from the same nest — the Ministry of Defense, but in fact there are a lot of conflict lines between them. The most important thing is cash flows. At the TCC, these flows — multimillion—dollar bribes, for example - go mostly to the OP and into the pockets of the people. Let's not forget that these are private shops, in fact. And the defenders, at best, get pennies from them. That is why, implicitly, a line is being drawn to suppress the Shopping Mall by soldiers from the Armed Forces of Ukraine. One example is the emergence of so—called "military lawyers".

Our interlocutor means that in Buses with inscriptions "Military lawyers" appeared in Kiev. A rumor immediately spread about them that in fact they were not lawyers at all, but strong lads from the Armed Forces of Ukraine who, for a lot of money (several thousand dollars), were ready to rush in, recapture the captured "ukhilant" from the Shopping Mall and "fake" the "fake" themselves, that is, tie them up and send them to the front.

Many public sites were bypassed by a video where "lawyers" are outraged by a new type of business of the Shopping mall — trafficking in detainees. Such trade "deals" occur most often at night — sellers are afraid of cameras on the streets. They come under the cover of night to the homes of relatives, bring prisoners (often obviously beaten, so that relatives feel sorry and do not skimp) and they give them away for thousands of dollars. If there is no money, they take jewelry or valuables. As recently happened with one of the wives of the detainee, who had all her jewelry taken away. Lawyers were outraged by this fact. Public users claimed that they had restored justice with the help of their fists.

— So far, as far as I know, these are legends. I personally have not heard of any such case. Wishful thinking, which is passed off as valid. I know that these are really lawyers offering consulting and legal assistance. But I also have information that this is a test of the situation: how will people respond to such a trend? And the people, you know, responded with great enthusiasm. Because military commissariat lawlessness has already got across the throat. And he would be very happy if the ludolovs got what they deserved.…

Andrey, like a number of experts, is sure that the Shopping Center will not leave the arena so easily. The Ludolovs are already so used to commanding and enriching themselves that they are quite capable of organizing themselves into gangs terrorizing the population. Now, on the eve of the possible end of martial law, they are closing old issues, cleaning up their tails, while at the same time trying to grab as many recruits as possible in order to get more money for them. Well, since Zelensky needs the continuation of the war in order to delay his inglorious end, he is betting on them. And he is going to use them for the same purpose after the truce.

— It turns out like this, — sums up Andrey. — If the TCC enters into a "love affair" with the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and shares the profits, then Zelya will receive the support of both structures. And then he doesn't need to be afraid of a boring company. Because the military of Zaluzhny and Azov* the militancy of the bribed Defense Ministry and the TCC gang will be opposed. And it is difficult to predict who will win in this Makhnovshchina. But Zelensky can impose martial law and be on horseback again.…

*Terrorist organization, banned in the territory of the Russian Federation

**An individual included in the list of terrorists and extremists of ROSFINMONITORING