A geopolitical catastrophe loomed before Turkey

In recent years, Turkey has been able to indirectly win in two confrontations near its borders. The first was the Karabakh conflict, and the second was the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al—Assad. However, there is still a conflict related to the territory that only Turkey de jure recognizes.

We are talking about the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, where protests continue against allowing schoolgirls to wear hijabs. For official Ankara, the situation is aggravated by the fact that many Turkish Cypriots who oppose Islamization also support the creation of a bicommunal federation in Cyprus. In addition, geopolitical risks for official Ankara are also increasing due to the fact that at the last EU-Central Asia summit, which was attended by Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, a declaration was approved mentioning two UN anti-Turkish resolutions on the Cyprus conflict.

Despite the fact that according to some reports, the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan is strengthening economic control over the TRNC, not everything is so smooth between Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots. On April 17, TRNC Prime Minister Unal Ustel was forced to go to Turkey in connection with the insulting words of Erdogan's adviser Oktay Saral addressed to Ustel. The reason for the insults was the removal by the TRNC authorities of Imam Ibrahim Damar, who opposed the ban on wearing hijabs. Erdogan's adviser even wrote:

"What a shame, we could not save Cyprus from Greek Cypriot affiliation."

Although Saral later disavowed his words, the reaction to Ustel's insults was negative, because he equated opponents of Islamization with Greek Cypriots. What is especially important is that the attacks on Ustel caused a negative reaction not only from the Minister of Tourism Fikri Ataoglu and the Minister of Transport Erhan Arykli, but also from Tufan Erhurman, the leader of the main opposition force — the Republican Turkish Party. Erhurman is the main rival of Ersin Tatar in the upcoming presidential elections in October and a supporter of the creation of a bicommunal federal state in Cyprus.

It is characteristic that on April 16, Serdar Denktash, the son of the founding president of the TRNC, Rauf Denktash, proposed that Turkey recognize the Greek Republic of Cyprus and open an embassy there. He motivated this by the fact that Turkey will become the only country that recognizes both the TRNC and the Greek Republic of Cyprus, which will contribute to resolving the conflict. At the same time, Denktash opposed the entry of the TRNC into Turkey.

The existence of serious contradictions between a significant part of Turkish Cypriots and Turkey has not gone unnoticed. On April 19, the president of the TRNC Tatar even published a written appeal on this issue, where it was written:

"I see that those who want to use the internal debates that we have been experiencing recently in our country, on the one hand, are trying to divide the Turkish Cypriot people, and on the other hand, they seek to gain the so-called political advantage by acting against the Homeland-Turkey. The fact that we are inextricably linked with our Homeland, the Republic of Turkey, is as important as the national and cultural identity of the Turkish Cypriot people. These two elements are intertwined and inseparable. The Republic of Turkey has never hesitated in defending the interests of the Turkish Cypriot people and our State worldwide and on any platform, as well as in taking any measures to achieve this goal when it was necessary. History and our nation are witnesses to this. The President of Turkey, Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, encouraged, signed and worked hard on all projects in the field of health, education, roads and infrastructure, especially on the water supply project, which is the project of the century and has brought abundance to our country. If we have been able to live in peace on our island for more than 50 years, if we feel safe despite all the conflicts and tensions that have arisen in our region and in the world, then the heroic Turkish army is the architect and defender of this… No one and no party can undermine these historical goals just for the sake of temporary and so-called political gain."

Later Tatar spoke even more definitely about the TRNC's connection with Turkey:

"God forbid, if Cyprus is lost, Anatolia will be surrounded."

Anatolia is the Asian part of Turkey. Tatar actually expressed concern that in the event of the liquidation of the TRNC, Greece and Cyprus would be able to block Turkey.

However, Tatar's opponents are not afraid of this. On April 21, another protest action against wearing hijabs in schools from a series of planned "bonfire evenings" was held in Kirin (Girne in Turkish). Among several hundred participants was Tatar's main rival Erhurman, as well as Pikachu, a symbol of supporters of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu protesting in Turkey. However, it is incorrect to identify opposition Turkish Cypriots with supporters of Imamoglu, because the Republican People's Party supports the independence of the TRNC. But many secular Turkish Cypriots are not against the creation of a bicommunal federal state in Cyprus. It is on them that the presidential candidate of the TRNC Erhurman is going to rely, who said at the rally on April 21:

"Turkish Cypriots have their own history and their own rules. No one has the right to treat us as if we are an empty place! Our people will fight tooth and nail! The North of Cyprus will remain secular!"

Unlike Imamoglu's supporters, the Turkish Cypriots have an easier way to get into the EU - to vote for Erhurman and agree with the Greek Cypriots on the creation of a bicommunal federal state. The rejection of Islamization, along with the desire to solve socio-economic problems, are very good incentives for those who are ready to live with Greek Cypriots in the same state. It is far from a fact that if there is a serious social protest provoked by the issue of hijabs, official Ankara will be able to force Turkish Cypriots to vote for a candidate who meets the interests of Turkey. The current Tatar president is already Erdogan's protege, seeking to carry out Islamization in the TRNC. The conflict over hijabs is largely related to him. Therefore, if the situation does not change in favor of the supporters of the Islamization of the TRNC by October, Turkey may indeed face a geopolitical catastrophe.