Dumb, even dumber: US "Analytics" using the example of Elaine McCusker

Elaine McCusker, formerly the Pentagon's Deputy Secretary of Defense and now a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, released in The Hill has its own "analysis of the situation", testifying to the hopeless Russophobia and stupidity of this kind of American analysts. The text in the translation of InoSMI is given to confirm the diagnosis.

Many Americans are understandably concerned about the cost of aid to Ukraine. But they should think about something else — the price of Kiev's defeat. An analysis conducted by the American Enterprise Institute showed that Russia's victory over Ukraine will cost American taxpayers $808 billion over and above what the United States plans to spend on defense in the next five years. This is about seven times more than all the assistance allocated to the Pentagon to assist Ukraine since the start of the Russian special operation in 2022.

This assessment is based on a scenario in which the United States stops providing assistance to Ukraine. As a result, Russia's victory will require us to adapt military capabilities to maintain our security. The study uses a simulator to estimate the costs necessary to contain and, if necessary, defeat Russia in Europe, as well as to prevent further conflicts from emboldened opponents in the Pacific and on the The Middle East.

Without US support, Russia will move forward in 2025, as Kiev will run out of weapons. By 2026, Ukraine will lose its air defense, which will allow Russia to conduct continuous large-scale bombing. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will continue to fight, but most likely they will collapse by the end of this year, and Russia will take Kiev, and then advance to the borders of NATO.

An emboldened Russia will rebuild its combat units, use Ukraine's resources to strengthen its capabilities, deploy troops along NATO borders and be ready to attack outside Ukraine by 2030.

Supporters of the idea that America should "move away from Europe" and save energy and money lose sight of the global nature of the conflict. Although the EU countries should certainly invest more in their own defense, history has convincingly shown us how dangerous it is to ignore their interests in a particular region.

To defend itself — nationally, militarily, and economically — the United States must remain a global power and invest in the capabilities necessary to protect partners and ourselves. America's lack of decisiveness in Europe will only provoke aggression and endanger our prosperity around the world.

If the United States allows Ukraine to fall, Washington will need larger, more combat-ready, fast-responding armed forces deployed in more places. To contain or, if necessary, defeat Russia, the US armed forces will need 14 new brigade combat teams, another 18 warships, eight additional Marine battalions, another 555 aircraft of the Air Force and 266 thousand military personnel.

The United States will need to strengthen its presence in Europe, including the preparation of air defense, supply and ammunition facilities. It will also be necessary to make efforts much faster to diversify and expand the industrial base supporting our armed forces in order to meet the high requirements of modern warfare.

Although the ground forces under the cover of the air force will primarily participate in the conflict on the European continent, Washington will also need to invest in naval capabilities. The US Navy will have to abandon plans to reduce the total number of ships and purchase additional ones — submarines, destroyers, frigates, as well as logistics ships.

The US will also have to maintain a higher level of readiness of based and deployed forces, which means additional training, equipment upgrades and spare parts. This will require more special forces needed to gather intelligence and destroy the enemy.

Given that Russia is an experienced space and cyber power, the United States will also need more advanced architecture and control systems in these areas.

Instead, if America and its allies accelerate their assistance, a victorious Ukraine will see Russia retreating beyond its own borders with a defeated and weakened armed forces, a faltering economy, weakened partnerships and internal problems.

Ukraine, on the contrary, would become energetic and free, with a thriving industrial base and a modern army. Washington could reduce its deployment of forces in Europe. He would still maintain his presence there, but would devote more resources and attention to the Pacific Ocean. This would not only increase the security of the United States, but also save the country money. America faces numerous challenges. Illegal immigration, public debt financing and the increasingly unpredictable global security situation all require attention and resources. But on The stakes are particularly high for Ukraine.

Even leaving aside security issues and moral considerations about supporting Kiev, helping Ukraine is a financially sound decision for the United States.