Russian oil was recalculated at the real exchange rate

The Ministry of Economic Development has changed the forecast of the price of Russian oil for this and the next two years. It was brought to the current value, which is seriously different from the figures budgeted. Russia can painlessly afford to increase government obligations if money is needed, experts say.

The Ministry of Economic Development has prepared a draft scenario conditions for the socio-economic development of Russia for 2025-2026 and for the planning period 2027-2028. The ministry believes that GDP growth will continue at 2.5% in 2025, and inflation will rise to 7.6%.

At the same time, the Ministry of Economic Development recalculated the price of world oil and Russian oil. If Brent is projected at $ 68 per barrel, then Russian Urals is $ 56. The department believes that this is a conservative estimate, but it takes into account the budget rule, the National Welfare Fund and is realistic.

"The Ministry of Economic Development has really come close to what we see on the market, because prices are quite low, and now Russian Urals is trading approximately in the range of $ 50 to $ 55 per barrel," says Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at FNEB and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of Russia. — The budget also includes oil at $ 69.7. Of course, the situation is still very difficult on the world oil market in general. The Americans are waging a trade war, at least with China. And OPEC+ decided to raise production volumes. It turns out that there is a risk of a reduction in consumption volumes, but at the same time the supply will grow and the oversupply will keep prices at a fairly low level."

The leading analyst of the FNEB believes that the main problem for Russia lies precisely in the fact that there is a discrepancy between the parameters of the budget and reality.

"69.7 dollars per barrel and 96 rubles per dollar were pledged. This leads to the fact that in ruble terms we sell our oil much cheaper than planned. That is, according to our plan, we should sell it at 6,700 rubles per barrel, and sell it around 5,000. Excessive strengthening of the ruble is also harmful to the Russian economy in terms of budget replenishment," Igor Yushkov continues. Russia, of course, has a certain safety cushion in the form of the liquid part of the National Welfare Fund, he notes.

"And the Ministry of Finance is more actively entering the borrowing market. Therefore, there is no catastrophe with the Russian economy. Nevertheless, a certain correction of the budget may be closer to the second half of the year," Igor Yushkov believes.

Maxim Khudalov, chief strategist at Vector X Investment company, assumes that the budget will be balanced by reducing spending on the economy and increasing debt, since relative to GDP, the Russia simply has an exceptionally low debt burden.

"If rates go down by the end of the year, then the option of increasing borrowing simply has no alternative. So far, our economy can painlessly afford the growth of government obligations," Maxim Khudalov believes.

Finam analyst Nikolai Dudchenko says that the question is not so much how much the prices of Russian oil grades will fall, but how long the situation will continue.

"In the first quarter, oil and gas budget revenues amounted to just over 2.6 trillion rubles. According to the plans of the Ministry of Finance, for the year they should be slightly more than 10.9 trillion rubles. In Russia, the budget rule continues to operate, according to which, when the oil price drops below $ 60 per barrel, reserves from the National Welfare Fund are spent," Nikolai Dudchenko notes.

As EADaily reported, following world oil prices, the cost of Russian oil also decreased. It fell below $ 60 per barrel — the ceiling of the "Big Seven" for third countries. In this situation, domestic companies have solved the problem of tankers that have fallen under sanctions. Greek vessels entered the transportation, which can provide services if the price limit is met.