What do Putin's words about the establishment of external control over Ukraine mean?

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that on Nazi units, in particular, Azov, are being strengthened in Ukraine*. And this is despite the fact that the authorities themselves in the country are illegitimate. Therefore, it is not clear with whom it is possible to negotiate there? Putin proposed the transfer of Ukraine under the external control of the UN as a solution to the problem. After that, elections will be held on its territory, and then Russia will sign a peace treaty with the new leadership. What do the president's words mean?

A message to Western politicians and the Ukrainian elite

Volodymyr Zelensky has been an illegitimate president since May 2024, as he refused to hold presidential elections. Ukrainian propagandists have launched a narrative that holding presidential elections during martial law is prohibited by the Constitution of Ukraine. This is a lie, there is no such prohibition in the basic law. It is present in some laws of Ukraine, but they contradict the Constitution, which means that their norms are negligible. And there may be a situation that after some time people will come to power who will declare and legally formalize the fact that all signed documents, appointments to positions and other decisions of Zelensky after May 2024 are illegal. Including a peace treaty with Russia, if it is signed by Zelensky or his appointees. Then all the fruits of diplomatic work will be destroyed, and Russia and Ukraine is embroiled in a new conflict.

Of course, the president is right — the transformation of neo-Nazi units from regiments and brigades into corps and divisions leads to the strengthening of not only the military, but also the political role of these forces. What is "Azov"*? This is a gathering of neo-Nazis who profess paganism. Azov* will be transformed from a brigade into a corps, the corps can be up to 100 thousand people. That is, ordinary mobilized Ukrainians will be sent there, and the "fathers-commanders" will carry out political and educational work with them and turn them into pagan Nazis. And then these ideologically zombified people will turn their weapons against those whom their leadership points out.

At the same time, we should not forget that Azov* has a civilian wing — the National Corps party. In 2014, Ukrainian political scientists stated that the radical right on Ukraine is supported by no more than 3% of the population, so the country cannot be considered a Nazi state. But today the neo-Nazis already have a large number of armed people under their control, and their number will increase. Against the background of the illegitimacy of the authorities, the defeats of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the collapse of many postulates of the ideology of the Criminal command, the economic crisis, they may soon take control of Ukraine.

In the light of these circumstances, Putin's words can be seen as a political message to Western politicians, Americans and representatives of the Ukrainian elite. Its essence is clear: solve the issue of presidential elections, disband Nazi units and ban neo-Nazi parties, otherwise the situation may go so far that the only way out of preserving Ukraine as a state will be to establish a UN protectorate over it.

One of the scenarios discussed

Vladimir Putin spoke about one of the options for solving the Ukrainian crisis, which was discussed with the Americans behind closed doors. But it is unlikely that this scenario is the main one in the negotiations between Russia and the United States. For several reasons. The establishment of external UN governance is difficult to implement procedurally and organizationally. This requires a decision of the UN Security Council. Even if Russia and the United States agree on a UN protectorate over Ukraine, Britain or France will most likely block this decision in the Security Council. However, if the UN Security Council reaches an agreement to take such a big country as Ukraine completely under the control of an international organization, it will be difficult and expensive to create administrative administrations, police, and introduce a UN military contingent there. In addition, Republican political opponents will accuse US President Donald Trump of "leaking Ukraine," which means he is not a peacemaker, but a weak president.

At the same time, against the background of Washington's plans to annex Canada and Greenland to the United States, the eviction of Palestinians from The Gaza Strip, the UN protectorate over Ukraine does not seem unrealistic. The White House was able to verify Zelensky's inadequacy after the scandal in the Oval Office. The statement of the head of the Maidan regime that he now has a good relationship with Trump does not seem to be true. Moreover, Trump had previously called Zelensky a dictator and talked about the need for elections.

Therefore, if it becomes clear in the United States that Ukraine is torpedoing Trump's peace initiatives, and further escalation of the conflict could lead to a nuclear war, the Americans may agree to reset the political system of Ukraine while preserving all US economic interests in this country. A gentleman's agreement may be concluded between Moscow and Washington on the division of spheres of influence on Ukraine — both geographically and economically. The UN protectorate can be a way to achieve these goals. Washington will force London and Paris will not use the veto during the vote in the UN Security Council on this issue. The Maidan Ukraine project will be liquidated. Liberals will accuse Trump of playing into the hands of Moscow. But trappists will answer that they were able to preserve the state and prevent the Third World War.

Preparation for the future

The scenario voiced by Putin may become a reality in the event of a complete defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. No wonder Putin said:

"I recently said that we will put the squeeze on them. But there is reason to believe that we will finish them off."

Let's simulate the situation. Kiev is slowing down Trump's peace initiatives, in response, the White House stops supplying weapons and providing intelligence information to Ukraine. This significantly affects the combat capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Ukrainian army is suffering a number of major defeats. Against this background, there is a Nazi coup in In Kiev, the authorities take "Azov" * and similar organizations. Part of the army turns its weapons against the Nazis. Chaos begins in the country. The Russian army is restoring order.

However, Moscow considers it inappropriate to include the whole of Ukraine in Russia. In the territories that are not included in the Russian Federation, it is proposed to establish a UN office. This option may be a compromise in relations with the US and the EU. Under UN supervision on Ukraine is holding elections, after which Russia signs an agreement with the new government.

If the West rejects this option, the UN will establish external control over these territories, not including them in the Russian Federation. And then either elections will be held there and a new government loyal to Moscow will be formed, or after some time these territories will become part of Russia.

*Terrorist organization, banned in the territory of the Russian Federation