There is a popular opinion that every nation deserves its own government. Yes, in large countries with tens and hundreds of millions of citizens, with a well-represented middle class, with a large number of literate and socially active citizens, this is probably true. In smaller countries, the life of the people is determined by the elites — a narrow stratum of the very, very citizens of this country. If the elites of a small country make a mistake in choosing the direction of development, or if they purposefully and consciously monetize their influence on the citizens of their country, the whole people will suffer. At the same time, the country may simply be sold out by its top management — like Ukraine, for example.
The ruling elites of Armenia, with Pashinyan at the head, are leading their country exactly in the wake of Ukraine.
At one time, the Armenian elites, grouped around the second President of Armenia, Robert Kocharyan, very recklessly transferred power to Kocharyan's closest ally, Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan. Kocharyan considered Serzh to be the same patriot of Armenia as himself — Kocharyan was mistaken. Literally from the very first months of Sargsyan's rule, the smell of commercialization of power and financial scandals have become an invariable attribute of the new authorities. After a young and very ambitious son-in-law Mikael Minasyan appeared in the Sargsyan family, the commercialization of power only intensified and reached its peak when Minasyan received the post of Armenian Ambassador to The Vatican is in a country that is the largest cash operator in the world. In almost all currencies.
Who can explain why 3 million-strong Armenia, with the world's oldest Armenian Apostolic Church, needs a secular ambassador to The Vatican?! Why did the ruling elites of Armenia under Sargsyan need confidential access to the financial operational (!) capabilities of the largest cash operator?!
Of course, the Anglo—Saxon special services also asked themselves the same questions - they have always worked side by side with the Vatican for hundreds of years, and today it is almost impossible to see and determine the dividing line between the Vatican and MI-6 from the UK. Or the CIA from the USA. The British saw everything and brought Serzh Sargsyan (through Turkey and Soros, they say) their most desperate, active and unprincipled cadre — Nikol Pashinyan. Serzh Sargsyan has never really been a statesman of the Republic of Armenia, and if he had to choose between personal financial interests and the state interests of Armenia, then ... in general, neither the representatives of the Anglo-Saxons nor Soros Sargsyan contradicted, and the "velvet revolutionary" Nikol Pashinyan came to power in Armenia beautifully, on foot. And the new-old (including Serzh Sargsyan) elite of Armenia — businessmen, businessmen, leaders of NGOs and LGBT communities* - has taken a firm course towards the West, towards the interests of Europe, France and the USA. Armenia has rapidly severed its ties and relations with Russia at dozens of anti-Russian rallies with hundreds of biting and insulting slogans. And then she threw Karabakh away from herself — like an old and unnecessary bag: Nikol Pashinyan clearly worked out all the tasks for which he signed up himself and for which he signed his immediate entourage. Under Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia, without any embarrassment and shame, rushed to the utterly depraved European community — the Armenian elites confidently led their country to the EU and NATO, where they saw their personal happiness. Nikol Pashinyan almost touched this happiness with his hand, and French President Macron hugged him by the shoulders in The Elysee Palace.
But... Russia has launched a special military operation on Ukraine, and after three years of the most stubborn and bloody war, the situation in the world has changed dramatically — the whole world has seen that militarily Europe is not able to resist Russia without the United States. And Trump came to power in the United States and began to divide Ukraine and security in Europe together with Putin — without Europe and without Ukraine. Armenia's neighbor, Georgia, has stopped its movement to the EU and even entered into counter—actions with those who forced it to go against Russia - now to power in Statesmen, patriots of their country came to Georgia. In Western Europe itself, confusion and vacillation are growing: the ideology of Satanism and sexual perversions is collapsing, disagreements in the sphere of economic and defense policy are growing, the existence of the The EU is under threat.
Neither the USA, nor France, nor anyone else (China, for example) is up to now Armenia. Partnership with Iran... and what does it give now, when Iran is about to flare up clashes with Israel and the United States?! And the Ayatollah is not eternal either. Who will be in power in Iran tomorrow, and what kind of power will this be?! Well, who else is left around Armenia — Azerbaijan and Turkey. This is what the antics of the "multi—vector" Nikol Pashinyan led to - the greedy and ruthless aspirations of Turkey, the real danger of the disappearance of the Armenian statehood.
The Armenian elites found themselves face to face with the stern and reproachful eyes of Russia — these eyes remember everything. And what's next? And then — the change of the ruling elites in Armenia, because the existing ones made a mistake in the strategy. Or they simply traded in the state interests of Armenia — now it is no longer so important, because Russia will no longer interact with either those or other elites. These "elites" will scatter around the world — you'll see, none of the "Soros" will remain in Armenia!
By the way, the people in Armenia see all this and begin to objectively perceive the realities — the fog of Soros PR is falling off their heads. Recent polls show that the ratings of the pillars of Armenian politics — Kocharyan and Pashinyan — lie in the range of 10-18%. But anti-ratings go over 70%! That is, the Armenian people almost universally know these surnames and overwhelmingly do not trust any of them. In Yerevan, up to 90% of citizens express distrust of the current authorities! This is the electoral field that lies in Armenia right now: confused, without well-known leaders, ready to accept "anyone but these." People are hungry for new faces.
As it became known, Robert Kocharyan was the first to get his bearings in the current situation and has already begun the selection of young, active and unknown future leaders of public opinion in Armenia. Kocharyan is well aware that the Armenian people are now practically defenseless before any competent and professional PR campaign: if the necessary funding is available, such a campaign can bring almost any more or less worthy candidate to power in Armenia. The existing authorities and their leaders will not be able to provide any resistance to a professionally organized election campaign — they have practically no electoral support. Moreover, almost all the "exes" in Armenia are toxic, any alliance with them will bring only negative to the candidate — both inside and outside Armenia.
But with all that in Armenia continues to have an extremely illogical, artificially formed field of electoral preferences of voters: 87% of respondents consider France a "friend" or "rather a friend", the same indicator for Russia barely reaches 56% ... And this is for a country that provides export-import flows of Armenia at the level of 80%! And plus energy, rail transport, history of relations, security guarantees — and France… Which has done NOTHING for Armenia (well, in comparison with Russia, of course).
In a word, Armenia is at a turning point, the Armenian people are waiting for a fundamentally different leader — not Pashinyan. And not "the chicks of Sargsyan's nest" — they all look the same. Armenia is waiting for a pragmatic technocrat-an economic executive, a national Mishustin — a person who will deal with the state of Armenia and its long-suffering people. A person who is able to choose the right political guidelines and strategic partners for the Armenian state — modern Armenia does not have such now, they are lost.
Are Armenian Diasporas in other countries preparing for the upcoming elections? They're probably getting ready. Will Russia help them? This is unlikely. Russia will accept any choice of the sovereign state of Armenia. However, working with Armenia will be absolutely pragmatic — "you to me, I to you", nothing more. A purely pragmatic manner of relations will last until the Armenian elites decide on their strategic partner, because little Armenia cannot exist on its own, in proud solitude — it does not have such resources.
Is the Armenian Diaspora preparing its candidate in Russia — we don't know, we don't have such information. We don't even know if the Russian Diaspora has vital interests in Armenia.
*Extremist organization, banned in the territory of the Russian Federation