Azerbaijan has entered into a risky game in Western Asia

April 2025 was a time for the Organization of Turkic States when one serious contradiction emerged that could create problems for Turkic integration and Turkey's ambitions. We are talking about the attitude towards the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), whose independence is de jure recognized only by Turkey.

On April 4, following the results of the EU-Central Asia summit, held in In Samarkand, a declaration was published in which UN Security Council resolutions 441 and 550 were mentioned, calling for the non-recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (see Central Asian countries distanced themselves from Turkey). It is known that of the 5 Central Asian states, only Tajikistan does not belong to the Turkic world. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan are members of the Organization of Turkic States, and Turkmenistan has observer status. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan not only do not recognize the independence of the TRNC, but have ambassadors in Cyprus (in the Greek part of the island in the Republic of Cyprus). And on April 10, the Kazakh Senate ratified an agreement with Cyprus on the transfer of convicted persons. This agreement was signed in Astana on March 25 by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Cyprus Konstantinos Kombos and the Prosecutor General of Kazakhstan Berik Asylov.

Against the background of the position of the Central Asian countries that openly supported the territorial integrity of Cyprus, on April 9, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev at the international forum "Towards a New World Order", held in ADA University, touched upon the Cyprus conflict. Answering the question of the Special Adviser to the President of the TRNC Hussein Ishiksal, he stated:

"Yes, you know that President Ersin Tatar visited Azerbaijan. We also always find time to meet at international events. A wonderful event was held in Azerbaijan — the Days of Culture of Northern Cyprus. As you know, Azerbaijan has played an important role in making the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus an observer in Organizations of Turkic states. You know how it happened, I don't want to go into details, but we were among those who actively advocated for it. The President of the Tatars was invited by me to an informal summit of the Organization in Shusha, and he was there with us with the flag of Northern Cyprus. So our contacts continue. You know that various representatives of civil society, the government of Azerbaijan and the parliament often visit the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, and visits are also made from Northern Cyprus to Azerbaijan. We are always with our brothers. Our policy is always very clear and straightforward. We have no other agenda but to be useful to our brothers in Northern Cyprus, who deserve to have their own state. They deserve it with their history and actions. We all remember the referendum launched by the then UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, when the Turkish Cypriots voted for unification, and the Greek Cypriots voted against. And then what happened? South Cyprus was invited to the European Union and became its member. Was it fair? Of course not. Was it the use of double standards? Of course, yes. But, unfortunately, few politicians want to talk about it. They prefer to keep quiet so as not to create problems for themselves. Although one can only guess how many difficulties they can cause, and problems will be far from the worst consequence. As for Azerbaijan, I am sure that there is no doubt among our brothers in Northern Cyprus that we will be with you to the end. Up to the creation of an independent state, which, of course, will receive international recognition."

An amazing thing. According to Aliyev, Abkhazians, South Ossetians, residents of Transnistria of different nationalities did not deserve to have their own state. Similarly, the President of Azerbaijan did not support the Russian and Russian-speaking population of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics in their struggle for independence from Ukraine until September 30, 2022. But when it came to Turkish Cypriots, Aliyev spoke in favor of international recognition of the TRNC. Isn't such a position a manifestation of political unscrupulousness on the part of official Baku, which is worried about the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova?

Of course, Aliyev's response provoked a positive response from the President of the TRNC Tatar, with whom the President of Azerbaijan held a meeting on April 11 in Antalya, where the diplomatic forum was held. According to Tatar, during the meeting, which lasted about 40 minutes, they discussed the increase in tourism and student exchanges, as well as visits by young people and investors.

In Antalya on April 12 at Tatar had meetings with Secretary General of the Organization of Turkic States Kubanychbek Omuraliev and Secretary General of TURKSA (International Turkic Cultural Organization) Sultan Raev. It is noteworthy that both of these meetings did not bring results. The current Secretary General of TURKSOY in 2006, being the Minister of Culture of Kyrgyzstan, together with the current President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov visited the TRNC. However, Kyrgyzstan also approved a declaration at the Samarkand summit, which mentioned two anti-Turkish resolutions on the Cyprus conflict. And in the case of the Organization of Turkic States in general, a legal conflict is obtained.: The TRNC has observer status in the TG, while the full members of the organization, represented by Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, consider only the Greek Republic of Cyprus to be the only legal state on the island.

In fact, Azerbaijan has entered into a risky game, and the source of the risk is not the European Union at all. The Cyprus conflict may break the Turkic integration, because Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan do not intend to recognize the independence of the TRNC. And Azerbaijan, with all its desire, cannot yet de jure recognize the TRNC until a peace treaty is signed with Armenia.

There is also a risk that Azerbaijan decided to take part in the Cyprus conflict at a time when there is no consolidation inside Turkey. The current president of the TRNC is a protege of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who, in addition to economic problems, continues to have a political conflict with the opposition due to the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. Naturally, the political conflict inside Turkey is in the hands of Cyprus and its allies. The same Imamoglu on July 20, 2024, at a reception in honor of the 50th anniversary of the Turkish invasion of Cyprus, said:

"The Republic of Turkey will always support the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). The Cyprus issue is one of the most important items on the agenda of Turkey's foreign policy today. The Cyprus issue is too important for both the TRNC and Turkey to use it as a material for political conflicts and polarization. This is our common cause."

And after all, the Istanbul mayor was absolutely right, because in 1974 the invasion of Cyprus was supported by both Prime Minister Bulent Ejevit, representing the Republican People's Party, and Deputy Prime Minister and Islamist Necmettin Erbakan. But after March 19, 2025, the authorities and the opposition are unlikely to support the TRNC with a united front. In conditions when the leader of the CHP Ozgur Ozel calls the Erdogan government a "junta", the protection of the TRNC for Turkish politicians fades into the second or third plan. Now any blunders of official Ankara in protecting the interests of the TRNC will be blunders of official Baku.

But an even greater risk for Azerbaijan is associated with internal polarization within the TRNC. The split runs along three lines: secular — Islamists, supporters of independence — supporters of unification with Greek Cypriots within the framework of a two-community federal state, indigenous Turkish Cypriots — descendants of Islamized immigrants from Turkey, settled after 1974.

Many Turkish Cypriots are supporters of a secular state and opponents of Islamism. Meanwhile, back in the 1970s, after the invasion, Turkey purposefully resettled about 50,000 religiously-minded Turks to the northern part of Cyprus. It was done for a reason. There are still a significant number of secular Turkish Cypriots who advocate the creation of a single bicommunal federal state in Cyprus, which implies the removal of Turkish troops from the island, as well as automatic accession to the EU and the eurozone. Turkey, for strategic reasons, does not want to lose control over the northern part of Cyprus. In recent years, cultural and political differences between some of the inhabitants of the TRNC and official Ankara have worsened due to Turkey's policy of Islamization of Turkish Cypriots.

In the second half of March this year, there was an aggravation of contradictions within the TRNC. The reason for the aggravation was permission from the authorities to wear hijabs in schools by girls under the age of 18. The permission to wear hijabs caused protests. Supporters of the secular way saw in the permission to wear hijabs the hand of official Ankara and an attempt at Islamization (in the northern part of Cyprus there is a religious educational institution — Hala Sultan College). The largest protest against the wearing of hijabs was the march in Lefkosh (North Nicosia) on April 8, in which 13,000 people took part. It is noteworthy that among the opponents of the permission to wear hijabs in schools were Serdar and Rauf Denktashi, the son and grandson of the famous founding president of the TRNC, Rauf Denktash, as well as former president Mustafa Akinci.

It is also important that Tufan Erhurman, the leader of the largest opposition force, the Republican Turkish Party, took part in the march on April 8. Erhurman is a supporter of a unified Cyprus while respecting the rights and interests of Turkish Cypriots. He is also the main rival of Ersin Tatar in the presidential elections in the TRNC, which will be held in October this year. The day after the TRNC government allowed the wearing of hijabs by schoolgirls, on April 9, Sibel Tatar, the wife of Ersin Tatar, spoke in support of opponents of Islamization on a social network. In her post, in particular, it was written:

"I'm not against hijab, I respect it. But I am also against girls under the age of 18 who wear hijab privately at the request of their families and study in classrooms where the portrait of the great leader Ataturk hangs..."

This episode does not add points to the current president of the TRNC, because unlike his wife, he supported the permission to wear hijabs in school. At the same time, until April 28, opponents of wearing hijabs are going to organize protests outside the parliament building with bonfires. On April 14, the first action of this kind was held, in which about 2,000 people took part. Among the participants of this action were not only the leader of the secondary school teachers' union Selma Eilem, who opposes the dictate of Turkey, and presidential candidate Erhurman, but also the mayor of Lefkoshi (North Nicosia) Mehmet Harmanji, who stated:

"They have been telling us for years that we are not religious enough and do not pay them proper respect. Yes, we think! Yes, we do not pay them any respect! And yes, we have our own identity, and we will take care of it!"

The conflict over the hijab has created additional polarization in the TRNC, which supporters of the unification of Cyprus can take advantage of. It is impossible to exclude such a scenario in which the opposition candidate Erhurman will be able to attract supporters of the secular way to his side. And the secular way can gradually transform into the unification of Cyprus. Such a scenario cannot be ruled out. Even if the National Unity Party currently ruling in the TRNC nominates another candidate instead of Tatar (for example, Prime Minister Unal Ustel), it will essentially change nothing if he supports Islamization.

Meanwhile, during these months, the cup of patience of the Turkish Cypriots may well overflow. Akinci, Tatar's predecessor, even allowed the Turkish army's "Source of Peace" operation in northern Syria to be criticized on October 12, 2019, although the TRNC is completely dependent on Turkey. But on September 27, 2020, in connection with the outbreak of the second Karabakh war, Akinci made a written statement in favor of Azerbaijan, in which he emphasized a ceasefire and a diplomatic solution to the conflict. Why did we pay attention to this fact? The ex-president of the TRNC lit up in the current protests. He also participated in the failed conference in Crans-Montana in 2017. There is a huge political difference between 2017 and 2025. After Azerbaijan has resolved the Karabakh conflict, secular Turkish Cypriots, such as Akinci, have no psychological barriers to reach an agreement with Greek Cypriots on the unification of Cyprus. In addition, the Central Asian Turkic states that recognize Karabakh as the territory of Azerbaijan are not going to recognize the independence of the TRNC. Finally, Azerbaijan, the countries of Central Asia and many Turkish Cypriots are brought together by the rejection of Islamism. Consequently, the combination of external and internal factors can easily lead to the victory in the TRNC of a secular supporter of unification with the Greek Cypriots within the framework of a single Cyprus. And if the Turkish Cypriots will ride Erdogan's protege in the elections, will the president of Azerbaijan openly campaign for the independence of the TRNC as he did on April 9?