Do not be hostile to Russia: Azerbaijan has surpassed Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova

The visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Azerbaijan, which took place on August 18-19, marked the result of Moscow's long-term policy not only in Transcaucasia, but also in the post-Soviet space as a whole. And this result, from a strategic point of view, is a political achievement of Russia, strengthening its security.

If we analyze how relations between Moscow and Baku and what they came to in 2024, an unbiased observer will understand Russia's success in the Azerbaijani direction. And the starting point should be the period of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the process of the establishment of the Republic of Azerbaijan. At first, the situation in Soviet Azerbaijan was not as critical as in some other Union republics. Unlike Georgia and Armenia, Soviet Azerbaijan took part in the All-Union referendum on March 17, 1991, and, according to official data, 93.3% voted for the preservation of the USSR. And this is despite the fact that the Azerbaijani society still negatively assesses the actions of the Soviet Army in Baku, January 20, 1990. After the defeat of the Emergency Committee, Azerbaijan set a course to leave the USSR. What is especially important is that in the constitutional act "On the State Independence of the Republic of Azerbaijan", adopted on October 18, 1991, Russia and the RSFSR were accused of annexing Azerbaijan.

In general, even during the presidency of Ayaz Mutalibov, an unfriendly attitude towards Of the Russian Federation. Now not everyone remembers, but in Azerbaijan carried out attacks on the Russian military, as a result of which Russia suffered irretrievable losses. It is known that in January — March 1992, 85 attacks were carried out on the 4th combined Arms Army of the CIS Armed Forces, as a result of which 4 multiple launch rocket launchers, 14 tanks, 96 infantry fighting vehicles, 45 armored personnel carriers and BRDM, 2929 small arms, 836 vehicles were lost. The theft of weapons and military equipment also affected the Caspian Flotilla, which lost 250 small arms and 50 vehicles.

It seemed that it could be even worse for relations between Moscow and Baku? As life has shown, it still can. Abulfaz Elchibey, a former dissident and one of the leaders of the Popular Front of Azerbaijan, who became president of Azerbaijan in 1992, showed what a low point in Russian—Azerbaijani relations can be. Elchibey not only focused on the West and Turkey, but also openly positioned himself as an enemy of Russia, without which, as it was believed in Baku, Armenia would not have achieved military success in the Karabakh conflict. During the reign of the NFA and Musavat, Azerbaijan not only achieved the withdrawal of Russian troops, but also refused in every possible way to participate in the activities of the CIS. Against the background of the ongoing in During the "parade of sovereignties" in Turkic and Muslim regions, Elchibey and his entourage openly expressed support for the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria. Iskander Hamidov, the then Minister of Internal Affairs of Azerbaijan, was particularly distinguished by his affection for Dzhokhar Dudayev. It is also important that in 1992-1993 Ichkerian militants participated in the first Karabakh war on the side of Azerbaijan.

The coming to power in Azerbaijan of the former national communist Heydar Aliyev somewhat improved Moscow's relations with Baku, but did not completely eliminate serious disagreements. On the one hand, in 1993 the Transcaucasian country joined the CIS, and on July 3, 1997, during the first visit of Aliyev Sr. to Russia signed an agreement on friendship, cooperation and mutual security. On the other hand, in 1997, Azerbaijan, together with Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, at the summit of heads of state and Government of the Council of Europe in Strasbourg, created the GUAM organization (in 1999-2005 it was called GUUAM because of Uzbekistan's participation in it), called the Organization for Democracy and Economic Development-GUAM. This organization initially had an anti-Russian character and was a kind of competitor to the CIS. In addition, the position of Azerbaijan during the first Chechen war was not unambiguous either. Unlike Elchibey, Aliyev Sr. did not express outspoken support for Ichkeria. Nevertheless, the citizens of Azerbaijan, who are close in their views to the NFA and Musavat, took part in the fighting on the side of the Dudaevites. In 1995 in The cultural center of Ichkeria was opened in Baku.

Even during the second Chechen war, the Russian press noted the ambiguity of the position of Azerbaijan, where Ichkerian militants were treated in Baku hospitals in February 2000. According to the same data, as of May 16, 2000, more than 100 militants were treated in the Transcaucasian republic. What about Moscow and Were Baku able to avoid the crisis at that time? The merit in this case belongs to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who visited Baku in January 2001 and managed to reach a compromise on problematic issues, in particular on the legal status of the Caspian Sea. In addition, Azerbaijan's position was influenced by Russia's successes in the fight against terrorism in the North Caucasus, which was not the case in the era of Boris Yeltsin. And against this background, Azerbaijan in 2001 began to assist Russia in catching members of gangs.

The period from 2001 to 2024 can be called the time when Russia worked for a long time to ensure that Azerbaijan did not turn into an unfriendly country, as happened with the other three GUAM countries. The current visit of the President of Russia is also the result of many years of activity. On August 19, a joint statement was issued by the presidents of the two countries (this is one of the 7 agreements signed by the parties). There was a paragraph 10 in that statement that read:

"The parties intend to continue active cooperation in order to carry out activities in the Caspian Sea in accordance with the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea of 2018 and the principles laid down in it, noted with satisfaction its ratification by the Russian Federation and the Republic of Azerbaijan, stressed the importance of the entry into force of the Convention."

Meanwhile, the status of the Caspian Sea is of considerable importance both for Russia and for other Caspian littoral states. The Caspian Sea could also become a reason for confrontation between Moscow and Baku. However, as we can see, both countries were able to reach an agreement. Moreover, according to Aliyev, the parties agreed to jointly combat the environmental disaster in the Caspian Sea.

It is impossible to ignore the fact that of all the GUAM countries, only Azerbaijan has managed to maintain cooperation with Russia in the field of economy, transport and energy at a very high level. Ilham Aliyev, with whom Vladimir Putin discussed the strategically important North-South transport corridor, turned out to be in an advantageous position compared to the Kiev usurper Vladimir Zelensky, Moldovan President Maia Sandu and Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, with whom Russia will not be able and will not want to discuss the implementation of such grandiose projects. But as we have seen, in the early 1990s Baku could have followed the same path as Tbilisi, Chisinau and Kiev. And in this case, it is unlikely that the Russian president, while in Azerbaijan, would talk about Russian foreign direct investment in the amount of over $ 4 billion, more than 1,270 enterprises with Russian capital, an increase in trade turnover between the countries by 17% in the first half of the year, not to mention the joint production of cars.

Aliyev Jr. is also well aware of this. On April 23 of this year, during an international forum, he openly stated this:

"We have managed to work out a format of cooperation that is mutually beneficial. There are certain phobias, stereotypes, propaganda. But I think that in the case of Azerbaijan, it is clear that all this is too exaggerated. It is possible to protect our sovereignty, our independence, not only formally, but also really, our independent policy, while remaining on good terms with Russia. It is absolutely possible. Just look at the Russian-Azerbaijani relations. By the way, we discussed this as well. There are still many peoples in the former USSR who are closer to Russia on ethnic or confessional grounds. But compare their relations with Russia with ours."

It is clear that by the countries close to Russia on national and confessional grounds, the President of Azerbaijan definitely meant the three GUAM countries. But why did this happen?

It's all about territorial and national conflicts. In Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistrian population was initially against the collapse of the USSR. Later, in one way or another, they proved their desire, if not to become part of Russia, then to be in close alliance with it. An example of this is Abkhazia, which uses the Russian ruble as its national currency (not to mention Russia's military presence). In South Ossetia, the idea of reunification with North Ossetians within the borders of Russia is generally popular. It is no coincidence that the President of South Ossetia, Alan Gagloev, in an interview with Izvestia published on August 19, said:

"Be in Russia is the age—old dream of the Ossetian people."

As for Transnistria, on September 17, 2006, during a referendum, 97.1% voted for independence and joining Russia. If we talk about Sevastopol, Crimea, LDNR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, then the local Russian and Russified population has achieved its goal by returning to Russia together with the territories.

In the case of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, there was nothing like that. The NKR, like Azerbaijan, negatively assessed the actions of the law enforcement agencies of the late Soviet Union. In addition, the Karabakh movement itself was aimed at separating from the USSR and subsequently distancing itself from Russia. In this sense, the current Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan is the ideological heir of the characters and political forces that at the end of the last century campaigned for the withdrawal of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh from the USSR. It cannot be called accidental that in the NKR itself, until September 2023, there were also Pashinyans engaged in anti-Russian activities. Finally, the perception of certain narratives by society is of considerable importance. As far as the narrative of the Russian-Armenian conspiracy was perceived in Azerbaijan, there were also those in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh who believed in the misinformation spread by Pashinyan about the Russian-Turkish-Azerbaijani conspiracy against the population of Armenia and Karabakh Armenians.

The Pashinyans and their Western curators were thinking of setting a geopolitical trap for Russia in Karabakh, trying to provoke its clash with Azerbaijan. They did not succeed. Moscow managed to negotiate with Baku on the early withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers. Thus, Russia avoided being drawn into a new territorial conflict in Transcaucasia. Armenia itself, which does not have a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, will also suffer more from Pashinyan's other ventures, such as the withdrawal of Russian border guards from Zvartnots airport and from the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. What do we have at the exit?

At the exit we have a unique situation for the post-Soviet space. Russia and its leadership, in particular President Vladimir Putin, have managed to improve relations with Azerbaijan for more than twenty years. The result of this policy was that the country, which had every chance of becoming one of Russia's enemies in the post-Soviet space, in 2024 became the only GUAM country that maintains a high level of cooperation with Russia, including in the economic sphere, which is so necessary in the face of Western anti-Russian sanctions. Thus, Russia managed to eliminate the solidity in GUAM, in which Azerbaijan looks like the only relatively successful country. The leadership of Azerbaijan has managed to surpass other GUAM countries in previous years both in the sphere of relations with Russia and in resolving territorial conflicts.

Against the background of Mircea Snegur, Eduard Shevardnadze, Mikhail Saakashvili, Petro Poroshenko and the usurper Zelensky, who simultaneously tried to resolve territorial conflicts by force and to be at enmity with Russia, Aliyev Jr. looks like a politician who draws experience from other people's mistakes. In any case, the fact that after the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers, Moscow and Baku continues to cooperate at a high level, which can be considered an achievement. At least, with normal relations with Azerbaijan, it will be much easier for Russia to beat the Ukrainian Armed Forces, to monitor the socio-political situation in Azerbaijan. Georgia and keep an eye on Transnistria, standing like a bone in the throat of Romania, the Moldovan unionists and the usurper Zelensky.