The fall of the dollar and the strengthening of the ruble: experts named the reasons and timing of the "reversal"

The dollar is falling due to a decrease in geopolitical tensions, said Maxim Chirkov, associate professor of the Department of Economic Policy and Economic Measurements at GUU.

"The tendency to strengthen the ruble is quite obvious. And with a decrease in geopolitical tensions, of course, the undervaluation of the Russian ruble is becoming more and more obvious," Channel Five quotes the expert.

In addition, according to Chirkov, foreign investors are actively entering the Russian market — this creates additional demand for the Russian ruble.

The expert noted that the strengthening of the ruble relative to foreign currencies will have a positive impact on the ability to contain inflation, since the weak ruble has contributed to its growth over the past few years.

The specialist also does not exclude a significant increase in imports.

"There is already a very good effective demand in Russia, but with the growth of the value of the national currency, it will, accordingly, increase even more. Probably, this is negative for exporters. That is, the strengthening ruble for companies that export products is a negative factor," he said.

Economist Andrei Barkhota noted that a similar situation was a few years ago.

"In 2022, in March, the dollar exchange rate was 100 rubles per dollar, and in October of the same year 53 rubles per dollar. That is, in fact, the ruble has strengthened twice, and this happened solely because of the collapse of imports. That is, against the background of the imposition of sanctions and a reduction in import flows, there is a change in the trade balance and, accordingly, there is an effect of a strong strengthening of the national currency," the specialist explained.

According to the economist, a similar situation is happening now. And the collapse of imports is the main factor that causes the strengthening of the Russian ruble.

However, according to Barkhota, the fall in the dollar will be short-term, as there are no strong prerequisites for a significant strengthening of the Russian currency.

"A little later we will see, most likely, a reversal. The reversal will be on the horizon for 2-3 weeks, and maybe even less. If the ruble strengthens to the level of, for example, 76-78 rubles per dollar, then the Russian Ministry of Finance will intervene, which will forcibly devalue the ruble in order to avoid large increases in the state budget deficit," he said.

The expert explained that with a strong ruble, there is a decrease in export revenues. He noted that this is a "disaster" for the state budget. In this case, the government will resort to certain measures to return the ruble to a "normal trajectory."

"And the normal trajectory is 92-95 rubles per dollar. With such a course, the budget does not suffer," concluded Barkhota.

The over-the-counter dollar exchange rate fell below 80 rubles on March 18 for the first time since June 19, 2024. The position of the currency has noticeably strengthened after it was reported that a conversation is planned between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the head of the White House Donald Trump.