"Long Neptunes" and GLSDB of Kiev "under the sauce" of big negotiations

No matter how many "good signals" there are from Russian-American contacts at the highest level, reality makes far from optimistic adjustments. The enemy retains the ability to use all percussion instruments, the targeting of which, after a two-month break, began to be provided by RC-135V Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft of the US Air Force operating over the Black Sea.

The first (after a break) demonstrative reconnaissance flight "Rivet Joint" was carried out on the night of March 14-15. Starting from the portal data Flightradar24.com and TG-channel Lpr 1, you can make sure that the car's barrage coincided with the appearance of UAV outfits-kamikaze, Fierce, PD-1 and Inferno of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on low-altitude routes on the way to the Crimea.

Obviously, the operators of the AEELS passive electronic reconnaissance complex stationed on board, as well as the CS-2010 Hawk high-precision direction finder, again detected the active radar of the Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile and cannon complexes and the Tor-M2 military air defense systems in the Crimea, superimposing their coordinates on digital topographic maps. At the output, optimal low-altitude UAV flight routes were generated, running through "blind zones" hidden from the radar of the above-mentioned air defense systems behind the terrain.

In other words, in terms of military-technical support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in conducting strike operations, everything has returned to normal.… But not only has it returned, but it has been supplemented with new touches that are far from the most pleasant for our rear infrastructure.

In particular, it became known about the resumption of deliveries to the units of the Missile Forces and artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine of hybrid two-stage 227-mm GLSDB rockets (Ground Launched Smll Diameter Bomb). The provision of these shells in the new aid package is strangely justified by the alleged exhaustion of the arsenals of operational-tactical ballistic missiles MGM-140A ATACMS Block I and MGM-140B ATACMS Block IA, which, according to Western sources, were delivered 40 units. In reality, there are more than 40 episodes of the use of these types of missiles alone (including interceptions by the S-400, S-300V4 and Buk-M3 complexes). And this is not to mention the fact that in the arsenals of the US Armed Forces there are from 2000 to 3000 ATACMS missiles in various modifications and there can be no question of any exhaustion of their reserves.

But what parameters can GLSDB rockets boast of in comparison with ATACMS?

No, this is not a high approach speed (about 2.5 mach) and steep dive angles, like ATACMS, providing a difficult strike into the "upper blind" zones (which are not visible by 92H6 illumination radars) over single batteries of the S-400 air defense system. But what is it?

It is well known that the first stages of GLSDB projectiles are represented by conventional solid—fuel engine compartments of M26A2 rockets, and the second by small-sized GBU-39/B planning aerial bombs. Despite the high initial flight speed (about 900-1000 m/s) of the GLSDB projectiles at the time of burnout of those very M26A2 engine blocks, the further flight of the GBU—39/B planning bombs separated at altitudes of about 8-10 km occurs due to the accumulated energy by inertia. Due to aerodynamic drag, the speed decreases quite quickly, gaining transonic values of mach 1.15 — 0.9. Then the folding wing is opened, and the bomb enters the planning mode with a decrease in speed from 0.9 to 0.75 mach. The planning segment has a length of about 145 — 150 km.

As you have already understood, the planning speed of about 850 km/h, the inability to perform anti-aircraft maneuvers and the flat flight path makes the GBU-39/B an ideal low-speed target for interception by means of the S-400, Buk-M3, Tor-M2 complexes, etc.

Nevertheless, there is an unpleasant detail. Unlike the full—size unitary guided missiles GMLRS of the HIMARS/MLRS systems, which have an effective reflective surface (EOP) of about 0.07-0.1 square meters. m, small-sized GBU-39B/1 bombs made of composite materials with a radio-absorbing coating have a reflective surface of about 0.015 square meters. m. Buk-M3 radars can detect such targets on The distance is no more than 25 km, and the Pantsir-C1 and Tor-M2 complexes are 10 — 7 km, respectively, leaving the calculations a small time "window" for interception.

Moreover, unlike guided missiles of the GMLRS/ER-GMLRS family, for less fast GBU-39/B planning bombs, more flexible routes can be built, maximally enveloping the ranges of action of previously scouted anti-aircraft missile systems of the military air defense and the Russian Aerospace Forces.

In such conditions, the anti-aircraft missile brigades of the Russian military air defense in missile-hazardous areas should not only be saturated with the necessary number of divisions of the Buk-M3 and Tor-M2 air defense systems, but also subjected to noticeable optimization of the dispersal of individual platoons and batteries of air defense systems. After all, the American "Rivet Joints" and radar and radio intelligence satellites will be able to lay routes for GBU-39/B with the circumference of the zones of operation of the disparate divisions of the air defense system. But these are not all unpleasant surprises from the enemy.

Multipurpose tactical missiles R-360M "Neptune-MD" ("Long Neptune")

The enemy also has another serious trump card. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have started using long-range multipurpose cruise missiles of the R-360M Neptune-MD (Long Neptune) line. Recently, a video was published of the use of this missile at the Tuapse refinery in Krasnodar Territory, where a characteristic sound of a small-sized rocket turbojet engine was heard before the impact.

As you know, the Ukrainian military-industrial complex has sharply increased the pace of their production. In 10 months of 2024, more than 100 of these missiles were produced, as reported by the head of the defense department of the Kiev regime, Rustem Umerov. To date, the number of these missiles in BC warehouses can reach 150-200 units.

In the updated version, the Neptunes are equipped with a lightweight high-explosive fragmentation warhead and a combined guidance system based on the INS, a radio navigation module and the latest radar homing head ARGS-5R, capable of capturing ground and surface objects.

Due to the increase in the volume of fuel tanks, the estimated range of the new rocket can reach 500-800 km. And this means that the Moscow Region and a number of neighboring regions are in the zone of action.

The reflective surface of the Neptune-MD of the R-360M rocket is about 0.15 — 0.2 square meters, and therefore it is much easier to intercept it than the SCALP-EG. The main thing is to properly disperse individual anti-aircraft missile divisions on the way to the covered target.