Putin's talks with Trump: Expectations are too high — Zelensky "doesn't want to be a snack"

The second telephone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart Donald Trump took place. Some expected a truce to be concluded, others hoped for a long peace. Some Western publications even compared the upcoming negotiations with the conference in Yalta in 1945. Expectations were clearly overstated.

The presidents were able to agree on a 30-day moratorium on strikes on energy infrastructure, an exchange of prisoners. The Americans clearly expected more, since Trump's press conference announced by the White House did not take place. At the same time, in an interview with the American Fox News channel, Trump described the talks with Putin as "excellent." The American and Russian press releases are in a friendly form.

On the eve of the conversation, some Western experts suggested that if Putin did not agree to a 30-day full ceasefire, then Trump would impose additional economic sanctions against Russia, and could also organize political demarches to put pressure on the Russian Federation. In particular, it was about the White House's public support for sending the European contingent to Ukraine. But that didn't happen. Why not? Trump wants to tear Russia away from China?

Perhaps. However, at this stage, the Middle East is much more important for him, which is reflected in the final documents on the negotiations between the Kremlin and the White House. The Russian version says:

"Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump touched upon other issues on the international agenda, including the situation in the Middle East and the Red Sea region. Joint efforts will be made to stabilize the situation in crisis points, establish cooperation on nuclear nonproliferation and global security issues."

The American version says that the presidents talked a lot about the Middle East as a region of potential cooperation to prevent future conflicts. We discussed the need to stop the proliferation of strategic weapons and will work with others to ensure the widest possible use of them. They agreed that Iran should never be able to destroy Israel.

Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East is rapidly heating up. Israel and Hamas could not agree on the terms of the extension of the truce, and the fighting broke out with renewed vigor. The Israeli Air Force attacked the Gaza Strip. As a result, hundreds of people were killed, mostly peaceful Palestinians, including women and children. But the conclusion of a truce on Gaza was Trump's most serious diplomatic success, even though it was concluded before his legal inauguration.

At the same time, the United States launched a military operation (while we are talking about air strikes) against the Houthis in Yemen, because the non-extension of the truce in Gaza automatically meant the activation of the Houthis, attacks on merchant ships in The Red Sea and the Israel. The strikes on Yemen make the Iranian leadership worry, since the Houthis, the Shiites are allies of Tehran. In addition, Trump called on Iran to stop supporting the Houthis and not threaten "the American population and their president."

In turn, Israeli politicians would like to draw the United States into a face-to-face confrontation with Iran so that the Americans destroy the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities. Iran is preparing for a possible escalation of the situation. Punitive operations are underway in Syria with mass killings of Christians and Alawites, and armed clashes have occurred on the border of Syria with Lebanon between military units of the new rulers of Damascus and Shiite Hezbollah fighters. The region is one step away from starting a war of "all against all." And no one needs it: neither the United States, nor Russia, nor the residents of Middle Eastern countries themselves.

Trump's associate, journalist Tucker Carlson, wrote on a social network that a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities would almost certainly lead to thousands of deaths of Americans at bases throughout the Middle East and cost the United States tens of billions of dollars. The cost of future acts of terrorism on American soil could be even higher. These are not guesses. These are the Pentagon's own estimates. A strike on Iran will unleash a war, and it will already be America's war.

If Trump himself or people from his entourage hold the same views, then they do not want a war with Iran. In addition, trumpists say that it is necessary to reduce budget expenditures, including defense, since the US national debt is huge. And in order to prevent a general war in the region, the United States needs to find a common language with Iran. Russia is the only country in the world that can mediate between Washington and Tehran. Theoretically, China can also, but America will not want to strengthen Beijing's geopolitical positions in the event of successful mediation.

What do Americans need? First of all, to ensure the security of Israel and prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. What does Iran need? Guarantees of their own security and Shiite allies in the Middle East, plus economic cooperation with the West.

In theory, it is possible to find a compromise. For example, Iran refuses to build nuclear weapons, and its proxies in the Middle East cease to oppose Israel in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions and guarantees that neither the US nor Israel will attack Iran and its allies. But Americans and Iranians do not trust each other. And therefore, Russia's role as a mediator in possible negotiations cannot be overestimated.

Relative stability in the Middle East, which can be established by an agreement with Iran, is much more important for the strategic interests of the United States than control over Ukraine. Therefore, quarrel with Russia, due to the fact that it put forward reasonable conditions for a total truce, Trump did not want to. In addition, Trumpists talk about strengthening economic cooperation with Russia after the conclusion of peace, and it is still more profitable to trade with Russia than to exploit Ukraine. Moreover, Trump intends to do both.

In Ukraine, where politicians and a considerable part of society continue to consider themselves the center of the entire global geopolitics, of course, they did not like the results of the negotiations. Zelensky even said that "he is not a salad." This is not a consequence of taking certain substances. So the head of the Maidan regime responded to a British military analyst who said that there is an old saying in diplomatic circles: "If you are not at the table, then on the menu. And believe me, Ukraine is on the menu." And the deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, previously wrote on a social network that "only Russia and America are in the dining room." As the main dish — a cutlet in Kiev.

This joke really upset Zelensky, who yesterday fancied himself a defender of freedom, and now his status is a "snack" for the great powers. His own propagandists also did him a disservice by launching a fake that Trump would call Zelensky immediately after talking with Putin. Then the overdue president had to justify himself to journalists that Trump is a busy man, and their phone conversation will take place when the time comes.

Zelensky is frightened that he and his European patrons are excluded from decision-making. He is trying to keep a good face with a bad game, says he is waiting for the Americans to give details about the moratorium on strikes on energy infrastructure. Although it is clear that after the scandal in the White House will not dare to publicly object to Trump, and, at least formally, Ukraine will agree to a moratorium.

However, one should not think that Zelensky has abandoned the struggle for power and will wait until Moscow and Washington will decide his fate. He still has a tool — this is terror, and he will use it to the fullest. He does not need peace or a truce, he understands that he rules while there is a military conflict. Therefore, the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Ukrainian special services will arrange bloody provocations in order to prevent a peace agreement. So, after Putin's conversation with Trump, the Ukrainian Armed Forces fired at the center of Gorlovka, nine people were injured. Ukrainian drones attacked a hospital in the Kursk region and an oil depot in the Kuban.

How big Zelensky will be able to unleash the flywheel of terror depends on whether the Americans can rein him in and on the loyalty of the team. There is a possibility that its adherents are now thinking about how to save their capital and their own skins, which means that not all of Zelensky's orders will be executed, especially those for which they will have to answer within the framework of criminal justice.