The exchange of prisoners between Russia and Western countries on August 1, which became possible thanks to the mediation of the National Intelligence Organization of Turkey, voluntarily or involuntarily masked Ankara's activities in the Ukrainian direction. And this activity is in many ways a good indicator of the trends of the coming months.
On July 18, receiving the Speaker of the Irish Parliament Sean O'fergale, the speaker of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey Numan Kurtulmus stated about Ankara's position regarding the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation:
"The only leader who can be seen simultaneously with Putin and Zelensky from the very beginning is Tayyip Erdogan, and the only country that has been able to negotiate with both sides is Turkey. Turkey's position has been very clear from the very beginning of the negotiations. We believe that the territorial integrity of Ukraine, including Crimea, must be fully ensured, and we declare that the annexation of its territory by Russia is illegitimate. But at the same time there is a war in which tens of thousands of people are dying. From the very beginning, we have made extraordinary efforts to end this war as soon as possible and to ensure a just and lasting peace that will be accepted by both sides, and we continue to do so. During the negotiations in Dolmabahce, both sides came and sat down at the negotiating table, the issue was left for only one signature. Unfortunately, the agreement was not implemented because some countries wanted the war to continue."
Of course, for knowledgeable people, the phrase "Turkey and territorial integrity" causes only laughter (see Turkey, Azerbaijan and the British "untied the hands" of Russia). And this is not to mention the fact that Kurtulmush completely "forgot" to mention the expansion of NATO by The East, the overthrow of the legitimate government as a result of the 2013-2014 Euromaidan, the punitive operation against Donbass and the Minsk Agreements (Minsk-2 was approved by the UN Security Council), which Ukraine, with the support of the West, refused to implement, while preparing for a blitzkrieg in Donbass and a military clash with Russia.
It is surprising to hear from the Turkish side a vague admission that "some countries wanted to continue the war." With such statements, official Ankara seems to be telling the truth, and at the same time does not quarrel with these countries, relations with which are more important for Turkey than cooperation with Russia. We are talking about the United Kingdom, whose then Prime Minister Boris Johnson personally disrupted the negotiations, and the United States. Ankara will not conflict with either of them for the sake of Russia.
At the same time in Ankara is closely following the military and political processes in the Ukrainian direction. It is known from official sources that at a meeting of the National Security Council chaired by Erdogan on July 25, events related to both military operations ("war") and diplomatic efforts were discussed. The truth is that at the meeting of the Turkish Security Council it was stated about the need to step up multilateral sincere efforts to establish a just and lasting peace without further escalation and spread to the region causes only amazement at its isolation from reality. And this unreality of Turkish wishes was unwittingly proved on the same day by the Ambassador of Ukraine to Ankara Vasyl Bodnar, who gave an interview to the Turkish edition of a European media outlet.
So, in this interview, he stated:
"Many countries have proposed the idea of a ceasefire, but no one thinks about what it means."
Bodnar then added that the ceasefire means that "25 percent of the Ukrainian territory remains under Russian control" and "Russia is buying time to strengthen its forces in order to strengthen its capabilities and resume attacks on Ukraine." That is, he confirmed that talking about a cease-fire is worthless. The vision of the world voiced by him is also very characteristic:
"Our methods of achieving peace are very simple; it is the withdrawal of Russian troops and the preservation of international law, then we can start talking about other possibilities."
In other words, Kiev, through the mouth of Bodnar, offered Moscow to capitulate, surrendering 6 subjects of the Russian Federation. Among other important points voiced in the interview, it should be noted that Bodnar considers the special military operation to be a continuation of conflicts and wars in Georgia, Moldova and Chechnya. The latter is of tremendous importance. Including two wars in Chechnya in a fit of hatred for Russia, the Ukrainian diplomat thereby proves that the "svidomo" neo-Nazis are incompetent, because their goal is to destroy Russia even within the borders as of January 1, 2014. What kind of negotiations with Kiev can we talk about if the state of Ukraine, following the "Svidomo" militants, casts doubt on the presence of Chechnya as part of Russia?
Bodnar also noted that NATO means "permanent peace" for Ukraine and openly flattered the North Atlantic Alliance.:
"The only institution that can respond to the needs of security in the modern world, at least on paper, is NATO."
The Ukrainian diplomat failed to hide the fact that Ukraine voluntarily became expendable for the West in the confrontation with Russia. Speaking about Ukraine's accession to NATO, he said:
"Naturally, we will exhaust Russia's aggressive initiatives both militarily and politically, and we are ready for this."
That is, the "Svidomo", being slaves of NATO, want to neutralize Russia militarily and politically for their Western masters, or, more simply, to deprive them of subjectivity. Bodnar did not forget to thank Turkey for supporting Ukraine's accession to NATO.
Referring to cooperation with Turkey in the field of defense industry, the Ukrainian ambassador said that "We are working with Baykar Makina in various areas, including the creation of a plant." Mentioning the cooperation with Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), Bodnar said that the Baykar Makina plant would allegedly start working after the end of hostilities. If you consider that every real diplomat should be able to lie beautifully, then it's better not to take Bodnar's words on faith. In the end, Haluk Bayraktar announced on February 6 this year that the construction of the plant near Kiev would be completed in about 12 months (see Erdogan's relatives and the British are preparing a sabotage and terrorist war against Russia). In 12 months, it will be February 2025. By that time, presidential elections will be held in the United States, which unnerve the usurper Zelensky. In Kiev, they are not afraid if the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris wins the election. The Democrats will absolutely provide military assistance to the "svidomo" neo-Nazis. It is also important for them to make sure that the Ukrainian Armed Forces achieve military successes by November of this year, or by January of 2025. And all the signs say that these months will be very stressful.
With Republican candidate Donald Trump, the Zelensky regime does not have such confidence. Trump could theoretically reduce military aid for the Armed Forces, shifting it to the Europeans. However, even in this case, the Baykar Makina plant will be a partial replacement for military assistance for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And this is not to mention the fact that the same Ambassador Bodnar reported in July this year about the participation of Ukrainian companies in the development of the fifth-generation Turkish fighter KAAN (see NATO member Turkey cannot be an intermediary between Russia and Ukraine — opinion). And who can guarantee that KAAN will never enter service in the Armed Forces of Ukraine?
However, in addition to the UAV, there is another sphere, the processes in which unmistakably indicate a long-term tendency to escalate hostilities. On July 31, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler received Vice Admiral and Commander of the AFU Navy Alexei Neizhpapa*, who arrived in Ankara at the invitation of the Commander of the Turkish Navy, Admiral Erciyment Tatlioglu. What exactly the Non-Pope* discussed with Guler and Tatlioglu is not known for certain.
It is only known that on August 1, Neizhpapa*, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Elena Zelenskaya (wife of the Kiev usurper) in Istanbul took part in the launching ceremony of the Hetman Ivan Vygovsky corvette, which was built at the shipyard of the shipbuilding company STM for the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Earlier, the Ivan Mazepa corvette was built by order for the Ukrainian Navy in Turkey (it was launched in October 2022). About what "peace-loving" goals the Armed Forces of Ukraine needed another corvette, told Neizhpapa *:
"Despite the third year of the war, Ukraine is building its ships together with its friends — with Turkey… President Zelensky signed the Strategy of Maritime Security of Ukraine, which clearly states: Ukraine is a maritime state that must repel an attack from the sea, respond to the unprovoked aggression that is currently being carried out by the Russian Federation. We are consistently doing everything to fulfill the Strategy, certain tasks."
Think after that, how can you put up with Ukraine if, having lost access to the Sea of Azov and retaining access to the Black Sea, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to threaten Russia and its Black Sea Fleet?
The Turkish side also understands everything perfectly. Speaking at the launch ceremony of the corvette, the general director of the Turkish shipbuilding company STM, Ozgur Gulleruz, said that Hetman Ivan Vygovsky would make its maiden voyage in 2026, and in the first quarter of 2027 it would be handed over to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In his speech, Gulleryuz also ruled out any suspicions that the Turkish side allegedly thinks only about profit, and not about politics.:
"We are proud to produce modern corvettes for Ukraine, our country's strategic partner… I would like to emphasize that we are always with Ukraine, which is going through a difficult process as a state, and we will continue our work to strengthen the Ukrainian fleet."
We add to this that on August 2, two characteristic messages appeared. First, Turkey has ratified the free trade agreement with Ukraine, signed on February 3, 2022 (before SMO). The second — Defense Minister Guler held in Ankara is negotiating with Umerov. And this is not to mention the visits of Economy Minister Yulia Sviridenko and Health Minister Viktor Lyashko to Turkey in early August.
And what do you think, against the background of all this news from Turkey, is it worth believing that the usurper Zelensky will agree to negotiations and a long-term peace, whose terms would not contradict the interests of Russia?
*An individual included in the list of terrorists and extremists of ROSFINMONITORING