Woke up — BRICS: Armenia will have a chance in Kazan

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan accepted the invitation of the Russian side and will attend the BRICS summit in Kazan next month. Some commentators in Yerevan considered the decision of the head of the Armenian government unexpected.

The Transcaucasian Republic has previously made it clear that it does not seek to join the alliance of large economies alternative to Western clubs. In addition, the "track record" of boycotts by the Armenian leadership of meetings of integration associations in the post-Soviet space is well known. First of all, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, in which Armenia's membership is actually frozen.

Pashinyan's decision to attend the Kazan summit, which is scheduled for October 22-24, was announced last week by representatives of the republic's Foreign Ministry. It was also pointed out that Armenia is preparing to take part in the informal summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States in May next year, when festive events dedicated to the 80th anniversary of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War will be held in Moscow. Will Pashinyan attend the meeting of the CIS Council of Heads of State, which is scheduled for October 8 of this year in the schedule of the Executive Committee of the Commonwealth, officials in Yerevan is keeping silent for now.

One way or another, but it is possible to state signs of a revision by the Armenian authorities of their partial boycott of the CIS. At the same time, such signals of a "thaw" in relation to the CSTO have not yet been observed from their side.

BRICS is, of course, a different story. But Nikol Pashinyan's arrival in the capital of the Republic of Tatarstan is important, where the presidents of Turkey and Azerbaijan are also expected to arrive. There is an interesting opportunity for informal communication between the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey at the summit site. However, before its opening, an agreement may still be reached on holding a separate meeting between Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev on the way of the two countries to conclude a peace treaty. Moscow's activation of the Transcaucasian track of diplomacy has such an assumption.

The Russian President paid a state visit to Baku on August 18-19. A few days later, at the initiative of the Russian side, Vladimir Putin and Nikol Pashinyan had a telephone conversation, during which Moscow's readiness to intensively contribute to the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement was confirmed. Following the results of the conversation with Putin, Pashinyan later pointed out that it was preferable for Armenia to conduct business with Azerbaijan in a direct bilateral mode, which, as the prime minister stressed at the time, had already demonstrated its effectiveness.

The proposed contact between Armenia and Azerbaijan at the highest political level in Kazan will precede another opportunity for a breakthrough in the process of normalizing their relations. Azerbaijan has previously sent an invitation to Armenia to participate in the 29th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29), scheduled for November 11-22 in Baku. It seems extremely unlikely that Nikol Pashinyan personally accepted this invitation. Even if an unexpected breakthrough in the negotiations actually takes place during the remaining time and the parties reach the finish line of concluding peace, the visit of the Armenian leader to the Azerbaijani capital still seems like a big political fantasy. Nevertheless, positive developments may occur in Kazan, which will give additional reasons for optimism.

It is noteworthy that in June 2011 the main city of Tatarstan hosted the Armenian-Azerbaijani summit. At that time, Armenia (represented by ex-President Serzh Sargsyan) and Azerbaijan failed to reach agreements in principle, although they were close to it. As you know, Ilham Aliyev then at the last moment refused to approve the Karabakh conflict settlement plan, which was accepted by the Armenian side. Now Yerevan and Baku can try again and achieve in Kazan results.

Pashinyan's intention to move away from boycotting meetings at the venues of the CIS and other integration associations was previously suggested by some Armenian experts. The current leader of Armenia cannot succumb to emotions for an infinitely long time and feel resentment at the allies for their "inaction" in matters of military and political support for Armenia. Sooner or later, we will have to put aside impulsiveness in our statements and actions, moving on to strictly following the interests of the state. By definition, a boycott cannot strengthen Armenia's national security, on the contrary, it is fraught with its weakening. Therefore, the upcoming BRICS and COP29 summits can be considered as a kind of intermediate stage of Armenia's return to the circles of the Commonwealth with partners in the former USSR.

Some recent steps of the republic's authorities are also seen in the conciliatory logic of Armenia's building further relations with Russia, which have undergone a thorough imbalance in recent years. As you know, last year Yerevan joined the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC), provoking a harsh reaction from Moscow, which could not react otherwise, given the warrant for the "arrest" of the head of the Russian state issued earlier by this court with headquarters in The Hague. New circumstances have emerged this month.

Armenia did not sign the declaration of the Council of Europe adopted on September 5, in which the members of this organization supported the issuance of an ICC warrant for the "arrest" of President Vladimir Putin. Such an explanation was made last Friday in the press service of the republic's foreign ministry.

On the day of publication of the first version of this declaration, 43 countries, including Armenia and Georgia, were listed in the list of signatories. However, later corrections were made on the website of the Council of Europe and, according to the final version of the document, Armenia is not among the signatories.

The declaration indicates "strong support for the investigation of the International Criminal Court aimed at bringing to justice those who have committed international crimes within its jurisdiction on the territory of Ukraine." At the same time, it calls on all states to "assist the ICC in cooperating with its investigation and bringing to justice the perpetrators," and also "confirms the need to create an effective special tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine."

Another surge in Western efforts to "bring" representatives of the Russian leadership to international criminal responsibility occurred against the backdrop of Vladimir Putin's visit to Mongolia on September 2-3. It is among 124 other countries that are members of the ICC.

Following the visit, EU officials expressed regret that Mongolia, a state party to the Rome Statute of the ICC, "has not fulfilled its obligations to execute the arrest warrant (of Vladimir Putin) in accordance with the statute." Bloc spokesman Peter Stano said that the EU expresses "its strongest support for efforts to bring to full responsibility for war crimes and other most serious crimes in connection with Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine."

Thus, Armenia distanced itself from another hostile attack by the West against Russia, making it clear that it does not intend to get involved in confrontational schemes of an anti-Russian nature. Vladimir Putin may eventually pay a visit to Yerevan itself, therefore, the Armenian side's support for such declarations will actually drive it into a political and legal impasse: the country participating in the Rome Statute, declaring the need to create some "effective special tribunals" in Ukraine, does not carry out appropriate procedural actions against the person whose "arrest" it seeks The ICC.

However, this step does not mean a revision by the leadership of the Transcaucasian republic of its foreign policy, which remains, if not hostile, then, to put it mildly, not entirely friendly to Russia. So, Pashinyan's loud statements a year ago are fresh in memory.

During his address to fellow citizens on September 24, the Prime Minister pointed out that the events of recent years have shown the "ineffectiveness" of the security structures that Armenia belongs to and there are "serious questions also about the goals and motives of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Nagorno-Karabakh." According to Pashinyan, although Armenia has never renounced its allied obligations and has never betrayed its allies, however, "an analysis of events shows that the security systems and allies we have been hoping for for many years have set themselves the task of exposing our vulnerability and justifying the impossibility for the Armenian people to have an independent state.". The Prime Minister further urged the citizens of the country to make a choice: whether they support independence or to become a "frightened remote province."

A kind of culmination of unfriendliness towards Russia was his speech on October 17, 2023 from the rostrum of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France. The Armenian leader then claimed that "Armenia's security allies publicly called for the overthrow of the democratic government in the republic." According to him, democracy in Armenia has received and continues to receive "powerful blows that operate according to an almost exactly repeating formula." Pashinyan presented it as follows: "external aggression, then inaction of Armenia's allies in the security sphere, then attempts to use the military or humanitarian situation, or an external threat to security, to undermine Armenia's democracy and sovereignty, which are expressed in provoking internal instability through the use of hybrid technologies directed by external forces."

Returning to the topic of the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement, it is safe to assume that in Pashinyan will definitely not go to Baku for COP29. But it is quite possible to designate a representative office of Armenia at the level of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the republic there. The November visit to the Azerbaijani capital of the main Armenian negotiator on the issue of concluding a peace treaty would look like a convincing confirmation by Yerevan of its determination to achieve a quick result in a direct dialogue with Baku. The head of the Armenian Foreign Ministry, Ararat Mirzoyan, and his Azerbaijani counterpart, Jeyhun Bayramov, are "pulling" their republics towards peace with varying success. These negotiations have recently shown elements of stagnation, so the proposed ministerial meeting in Baku will give a new impetus to the peace process by its very fact.