And not a friend, and not an enemy, but Erdogan: Turkey praised Pashinyan "out of spite" to Aliyev

Last Friday, official Ankara expressed hope that Armenia and Azerbaijan will sign a peace treaty this year. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan shared similar expectations, as well as very flattering assessments of the Armenian leadership.

As the head of Turkish diplomacy reminded, Yerevan and Baku has to agree on several points of the draft agreement "On the establishment of peace and interstate relations between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan." At the same time, Fidan pointed to the "positive signals" coming from the Armenian authorities and noted the personal role of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in efforts to achieve long-term peace in the region, where a "window of historical opportunity" has appeared for this.

"A window of historic opportunity for lasting peace, stability and prosperity has opened in our region. I believe that Armenia will act with a long-term strategic perception. We consider the positive signals (from) Prime Minister Pashinyan in this direction to be important. We note that he expresses a position in favor of peace, contributes to positive progress in this process. We continue to facilitate bilateral negotiations between the parties without intermediaries. The establishment of peace will open up unprecedented new opportunities for the development of our region," the minister said.

At the same time, he stressed that the South Caucasus is an "extremely important region" for Turkey, and compared the importance of Transcaucasia with the Balkans in this context, stating that if the Balkans are the way to Europe for Turkey, then the Caucasus is the gateway to Central Asia.

The statements of the head of the Turkish Foreign Ministry are remarkable for a number of reasons. Among them, it is possible to note the newly manifested differences between the approaches of Ankara and Baku is ready for the timing and the very possibility of signing the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace. In fact, Turkey has made it clear that it does not share the position of its "younger brother" that the conclusion of a peace treaty with Armenia is not yet "ripe" and it is required to fulfill a number of conditions. And some of them, as we have already noted earlier, are almost ultimatum-like on the part of Azerbaijan.

For example, President Ilham Aliyev reiterated earlier this week that he sees no opportunity to force negotiations with Armenia on signing peace as long as "territorial claims" to Azerbaijan remain in its constitution. Moreover, the tone of the Azerbaijani leader, judging by his communication with local TV channels on January 7, has become tougher against Armenia. Aliyev described the neighboring country as "fascist", apparently deliberately allowing such obvious political correctness in relation to the Armenian counter-partners in the peace process.

Yerevan responded to such a bellicose verbal attack and other statements of the Azerbaijani president comparable in severity (for example, that Yerevan should abandon all concluded and implemented arms contracts with foreign countries and "return" to them the already delivered shock and defensive systems) in the pacifist manner familiar to the Pashinyan government. The Prime Minister of the Republic indicated that he was not going to reciprocate the statements made by Aliyev, including about "fascist Armenia," but would continue to avoid any risks of escalation in the region and follow the path of finding mutually acceptable solutions in the negotiation process for signing a peace treaty.

The above-mentioned statements of Fidan in this light are seen as a certain moral support of Yerevan and personally Pashinyan. Turkey does not share Aliyev's rigid style of doing business with Armenia. But he is not going to disappoint his "younger brother" and even more so spoil relations with him because of Armenia.

Ankara has repeatedly expressed at the highest political level the need to sign a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan as soon as possible. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan held personal meetings, the last of which took place on September 24 last year in New York. As the Turkish leader said after the meeting, the Armenian Prime Minister asked to facilitate the signing of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, "and we are actively working on this."

Pashinyan announced the rejection of the idea of "historical Armenia" in favor of building the statehood of "real Armenia", the territorial limits of which are limited by the borders of the former Armenian SSR (29,743 thousand square kilometers). After Aliyev's attack on "fascist Armenia", the head of the government of the republic decided to clarify the concept of "real Armenia".

"Western Azerbaijan is Gazakh, Tovuz, Agstafa, Gedabek, Dashkesan, Kelbajar, Lachin, Kubatlu, Zangelan. There is not and cannot be a Western Azerbaijan outside of this. If they really want to look elsewhere, we can consider Nakhichevan as Western Azerbaijan. Western Armenia is Armavir, Talin and Maralik. There is not and cannot be a Western Armenia outside of this… Azerbaijan insists that Armenia discuss the issue of refugee rights under the auspices of "Western Azerbaijan". When Azerbaijan uses the phrase "the issue of the return of refugees from Western Azerbaijan", with this wording it closes the possibility of any discussion, because it becomes obvious that they are trying to use the issue of refugees to cast doubt on the territorial integrity of the subject of international law, the sovereign state of the Republic of Armenia, to formulate territorial claims against Armenia. To discuss the issue, Azerbaijan must first abandon such statements to "Western Azerbaijan"," Pashinyan said.

According to him, "questioning Armenia's right to have a defense-capable army, official Baku is trying to get an opportunity for unhindered aggression against the Republic of Armenia." In this regard, he reiterated Yerevan's readiness to "establish long-term stability and peace in the region," for which he outlined several steps that the parties need to take on the way to signing peace. Among them is the mutual rejection of escalatory rhetoric and the continuation of the process of demarcation of the Armenian—Azerbaijani border. At the same time, Pashinyan called on Aliyev to conclude a peace treaty, "which is 90 percent ready."

The almost complete agreement by Armenia and Azerbaijan to date on the text of the treaty does not mean that it will be signed in the coming months. However, the hope expressed by the chief Turkish diplomat that this will be possible before the end of 2025 inspires confidence in the Armenian leadership and allows it to count on certain foreign policy support from Ankara. Although not so long ago, such expectations of Yerevan were simply unthinkable.

The Turkish interest in bringing closer the moment of the conclusion of the "historic" Armenian-Azerbaijani agreement is quite extensive, covers a number of issues not only from the current agenda of the South Caucasus, but also beyond. First of all, Erdogan is flattered by Pashinyan's emphatically respectful attitude towards him. His position during the 44-day war on the destructiveness of the active Turkish presence in Transcaucasia has changed to a virtually diametrically opposite approach, according to which Turkey is an important force for the region. Erdogan can be described as a "sentimental" politician who attaches great importance to the symbols and gestures of his foreign colleagues. Among the relatively recent similar episodes, it should be noted that Armenia officially recognized the state independence of Palestine, which also received a commendable response from the Turkish capital.

Pashinyan, having changed tactics, began to play along with Erdogan's traditional foreign policy ambitions, which extend far beyond the countries surrounding Turkey. It is important for Ankara to consolidate its role as a key player in the South Caucasus in order to then project a similar status to adjacent regions, including Central Asia. Hence the comparisons made by Fidan of the "transit" importance of the Balkans and Transcaucasia for his country. Armenia's peace with Azerbaijan will bring Turkey closer to this goal through promising transport and other cross-border projects. The current closed borders (Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Azerbaijani) have become an obstacle for Ankara, they have fulfilled their mission of blocking Yerevan during the Armenian "occupation" of Karabakh (in the understanding of Turkey and Azerbaijan) and should now be opened on favorable terms for Turkey.

The local leadership views the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement in a larger context than Baku does. The Turkish vision of peace between the two Transcaucasian republics does not entirely coincide with the Azerbaijani approach. This is especially noticeable in the issue of the expected timing of the signing of a peace treaty. Turkey is clearly pushing Azerbaijan to formalize the "historical" document as soon as possible, while the "younger brother" is determined to extend the pause and try to "sell peace" to Armenia at a higher price.