The European Union burned all the gas stored last year: LNG tankers turn to the EU

Cold weather, windless weather and the stoppage of Ukrainian transit of Russian gas provoked a jump in gas consumption in the EU. Daily deliveries from UGS have increased to the maximum since the winter of 2021. At the beginning of the third decade of January of the country The EU has taken all the volumes pumped last year from the storage facilities. By next winter, European companies will have to buy additional tens of billions of cubic meters to fill the UGS. Meanwhile, fuel prices have firmly established themselves above $ 500 per thousand cubic meters. Experts believe that the energy crisis in Europe can only intensify, despite all the plans of the European Commission to reduce gas prices.

A few days ago, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, curled on At the World Economic Forum in Davos, an energy plan will be ready in February to reduce gas prices in Europe and completely abandon Russian fuel.

Her words were made during another jump in gas consumption in the EU countries, which threatens to intensify the energy crisis, and the European Union will not fight for lower prices, and with their growth.

According to GIE, on January 21, gas extraction from EU storage facilities increased to 992 million cubic meters per day. This is the highest figure since January 2021. At the same time, these platforms say, the European Union has already taken all the gas pumped last year from the UGS. For more than two and a half months, more than 40 billion cubic meters of all reserves were taken from storage facilities — 39%.

63.9 billion cubic meters remained in the UGS of the EU countries. So much was by April 1, 2024, when the heating season ended. If the average occupancy rate of European storage facilities has decreased to 58%, then in five countries (Belgium, Croatia, Denmark, France, the Netherlands) it has dropped below 50%, and in Romania it is close to this indicator.

The reasons for the high selection are colder weather, windless periods and the suspension of Russian gas transit through Ukraine from January 1.

At a seasonal storage rate The EU will end the season with reserves of about 30 billion cubic meters. This will be the lowest figure since 2022.

"It was expected in the current conditions. Moreover, the Europeans have lost transit through Ukraine, and at the same time they are trying to contain the price increase without increasing LNG imports. But the risks for the rest of the heating season are growing and the energy crisis in Europe may well intensify," said Alexey Grivach, Deputy Director of the National Energy Security Fund (NWF).

On the one hand, a higher selection may also be in the interests of traders, since last summer they pumped fuel at a lower price. On the other hand, LNG suppliers cannot sharply and quickly increase shipments to Europe, as Gazprom did earlier during the day. An LNG tanker from the USA will take at least a week on the road.

According to AIS vessels, over the past two weeks, at least eight gas carriers going to Latin America and Asia have changed course to the EU countries. Together, they can deliver up to 800 million cubic meters of gas in the form of LNG.

In this situation, the cost of fuel on European stock exchanges has firmly established itself above $ 500 per thousand cubic meters. On January 23, gas supplies for a month in advance were traded at the Dutch TTF hub at $ 537 per thousand cubic meters. This price is slightly lower than the quotes of the previous days and the beginning of January, when the Ukrainian transit stopped, but exceeds all the others since November 2023.

If Europe maintains the pace of selection from storage facilities, then by next winter it will have to additionally buy, taking into account the dropped volumes of Ukrainian transit, more than 38 billion cubic meters. Their market value is now more than $ 20 billion.

Experts noted to EADaily that several new LNG projects are being introduced in the USA this year, but they will be able to cover additional demand in Europe with a creak. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the pressure on prices will increase and the balance of supply and demand will remain fragile.

"LNG production growth is at a below-average level and keeps supply in a limited volume, while extreme weather events increase market tensions. Geopolitical tensions continue to fuel price volatility. Although the termination of the transit of Russian pipeline gas through Ukraine from January 1, 2025 does not pose an immediate threat to supply security for the European Union, this may lead to an increase in LNG imports and a tightening of fundamental market indicators in 2025," the IEA report says.

As EADaily reported, the future problem of restoring stocks in storage facilities has already been taken care of in Germany. The German authorities are considering the possibility of financial support for companies to actively pump gas into storage facilities for the next heating season.