Why does Ilham Aliyev need to inflate the scandal over the disaster in Aktau?

The conflict between Russia and Azerbaijan over the assessment of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash continues to escalate. Why can't it be solved by negotiations, Pravda.Ru Sergey Lunev, Professor of the Department of Oriental Studies, Chief Researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained.

Azerbaijan is preparing a lawsuit to the International Court of Justice on the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash at Aktau airport in Kazakhstan, APA news agency reports. The article entitled "Russia wants to arrange a second incident with the Malaysian Boeing" draws parallels with the case in the skies of Donbass in 2014 and indicates that both then and now Russia does not want to admit its guilt, although the alleged evidence is there.

According to the agency, it is obvious to the Azerbaijani leadership that "the missile was launched at the aircraft from the territory of the military base in Khankala," and the main complaint is that AzerAir pilots were not notified of the Carpet plan in connection with the attack of Ukrainian UAVs.

"At 05:13:32 the aircraft lost the main flight control, and only at 05:21:42 the dispatcher-coordinator transferred to Grozny Department of Internal Affairs information about the special operation "Carpet", — stated in the report of the commission of inquiry established in Kazakhstan.

It is also concluded that the fragments recovered from the aircraft have been confirmed as fragments of the Pantsir missile system as a result of international expertise, and the Azerbaijani side is preparing to submit this evidence to the international court. However, in the preliminary report of the commission of inquiry there are no conclusions about the ownership of the wreckage. It is indicated that the damage to the fuselage was caused by foreign objects from the outside.

"We expected Russia to publicly take responsibility for the downed plane and pay compensation to the victims. Instead, Russia simply ignores the catastrophe, hoping that it will pass by itself. It's condescending, they look down on us," a source in the Azerbaijani foreign Ministry told the agency.

It turns out that it's all about the pride of the first person of Azerbaijan. It is obvious that Baku does not want to wait for the commission's conclusions, although according to international rules, the final report should be prepared within one year. The issue is openly politicized by Azerbaijan. Baku is trying to prove that by pushing, it will get its own. According to President Ilham Aliyev, Moscow should apologize, punish the perpetrators and pay compensation. It seems that this will be done in the case of the relevant conclusions of the commission, but for now the rule of presumption of innocence is in effect. Any court where Azerbaijan appeals will wait for the commission's conclusions. So why get into a pose?

According to Lunev, "we have very dissolved the neighboring countries, the former republics, and voluntarily accept all their "wishlist".

"The example of Ukraine perfectly shows us what this can lead to," the expert said.

The orientalist recalled that Azerbaijan struck at Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh in September 2023, resulting in the death of six servicemen. A criminal case was opened, "but we still do not know the outcome of this case."

According to Sergey Lunev, Russian diplomats in the current situation are acting within the powers they have, and they are negotiating with Azerbaijan to resolve the conflict, "but they are not making decisions, but in Moscow is the first person."

The orientalist explains the confrontational behavior of Baku by the fact that Azerbaijan has excellent relations with Turkey, and To Iran in Baku is treated "quite negatively." And Iran is much more preferable for Russia as an ally than Turkey.

"The further development of the situation, as well as the state of Russian-Azerbaijani relations, will primarily depend on issues that are of a strategic nature and will not always depend on the positions of Russia and Azerbaijan," the expert concluded.

On February 6, tensions in relations reached a new level — Azerbaijan ordered Moscow to close the Russian House cultural center in Baku. At the same time, Azerbaijani state media reported that Baku had sent a batch of non-military aid to support Ukraine.

In recent years, Azerbaijan has strengthened its economic ties with Russia, and Moscow is increasingly relying on Azerbaijan as the most important transit hub of the North—South corridor, facilitating the delivery of goods to Iran and Persian Gulf ports and back from Russia bypassing Western sanctions. But the North—South corridor runs along three routes: the trans—Caspian one using the ports of Russia and Iran, the western one through Azerbaijan and the eastern one through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.