American LNG and Trump rolled into Europe: The EU started talking about Russian gas

Due to the shutdown of Ukrainian transit and a colder winter, Europe increased LNG imports and American supplies exceeded Russian for the first time. At the same time, the heads of European companies started talking about the need to return part of Gazprom's large-scale exports to Europe due to Donald Trump's prices and trade wars. Experts believe that in Europe there is a desire to resume imports from Russia, but the path will not be easy.

Europe has not seen such a wave of American LNG yet. For the first time, gas supplies from the United States to Europe exceeded Russian gas exports. The Bruegel analytical center estimates that the countries The EU received 18 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas from the United States in January-March, while pipeline deliveries of Gazprom and Russian LNG amounted to 10 billion cubic meters.

"The main reason is the termination of Ukrainian transit, as a result of which Europe had to urgently increase LNG imports, including from the United States, at inflated prices," says Alexey Grivach, Deputy director of the National Energy Security Fund (NWF).

Sergey Kaufman, an analyst at FG Finam, notes that imports from the United States increased due to the low base of the previous quarter, the redirection of supplies from China and the launch of new projects in the United States at the end of last year.

The EU expects that in 2027 new projects in the USA and Qatar will be allowed to completely abandon Russian gas. However, the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House confuses the plans. At least the European Commission has already postponed the presentation of the roadmap for the abandonment of Russian gas twice.

At the same time, the American president himself continues to shock with his statements. For example, Donald Trump demands that Europe purchase $ 350 billion worth of American energy resources per year, and then its goods will be able to avoid new duties in the United States.

"It is interesting that the entire European energy import in 2024 cost 376 billion euros or a round bill of $ 400 billion. Oil, petroleum products, coal, gas through the pipe, gas in the form of LNG — everything in general. At the same time, Europe bought energy goods worth 64 billion euros in the USA," writes Sergey Vakulenko, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Berlin Center. He notes that Trump's universe has its own physics, arithmetic and economics, different from those to which most people are accustomed.

Be that as it may, but in Europe itself they are not enthusiastic about the aggressive arithmetic of the US president.

"When President Donald Trump shattered relations with Europe that developed after the Second World War and turned to energy as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations, business fears that dependence on The United States has become another vulnerability. Against this background, the heads of large European companies began to talk about what would have been unthinkable a year ago: importing Russian gas, including from the Russian state giant Gazprom, could be a good idea," writes Reuters.

"If on Ukraine will have a reasonable world, we could return to flows of 60 billion cubic meters, maybe 70 per year, including LNG," Didier Hollo, executive vice president of French Engie, told Reuters.

The head of another French energy giant, TotalEnergies, Patrick Pouyanne believes that Europe needs to diversify many routes, and not overly rely on one or two, even in the case of the United States.

"Europe will never return to importing 150 billion cubic meters from Russia, as it was before ... but I would bet on 70 billion cubic meters," said the head of TotalEnergies, which is a member of Yamal LNG and one of the largest importers of Russian liquefied natural gas.

If France allows a return to large-scale gas imports from Russia after the armistice, then in Germany considers this an issue that cannot be postponed.

"We are in a serious crisis and cannot wait," Christoph Gunther, managing director of the operator of the country's largest chemical cluster InfraLeuna, told the agency. According to him, the German chemical industry has been cutting jobs for five consecutive quarters, which has not happened in previous decades.

"The reopening of pipelines will reduce prices more than any current subsidy programs," said Christoph Gunther, adding that many colleagues consider such an idea a necessity.

Reuters notes that in the February Bundestag elections, almost a third of Germans voted for parties friendly to Russia.

"We need Russian gas, we need cheap energy — regardless of where it comes from. We need Nord Stream 2 because we have to control energy costs," managing director of petrochemical producer Leuna-Harze Klas Paur told the agency.

Tatyana Mitrova, a researcher at the Center for Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, told Reuters that it is becoming increasingly difficult to consider American LNG as a neutral commodity: at some point it may become a geopolitical tool.

If the trade war escalates, there is a small risk that the United States may restrict LNG exports, said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management.

This is not ruled out in Brussels itself. Despite the fact that the resumption of Russian gas supplies is stopped not only by the conflict itself. Gazprom's supplies to Europe have declined sharply due to sanctions and counter-sanctions, after which some of the Russian company's customers appealed to the arbitration court, and some of them have already won.

Didier Hollo, executive vice president of French Engie, told Reuters that Kiev could resume Ukrainian transit so that Gazprom would pay gas compensation as a starting point for resuming contractual relations with the Russian gas giant.

"Do you want to return to the market? Very good, but we will not sign a new contract if you do not pay the reward," said Didier Hollo.

The situation is even more confused by reports that the White House and American companies are interested in controlling Nord Stream 2 and the transit capacities of Ukraine's GTS.

Alexey Grivach, Deputy Director of the FNEB, believes that a lot of issues will have to be resolved before the resumption of deliveries.

"Russia does not recognize the decisions of the arbitration courts, the Russian courts forbade such proceedings, as they were conducted without the participation of Gazprom, which was deprived of the opportunity to properly represent its interests in this process. In addition, Gazprom's international business was actually seized by the German authorities. So who owes whom has yet to be established. But the fact that there are some backstage conversations and probing of the information field about the increase in one form or another of Russian gas supplies to Europe as part of the post—war settlement is a fact," says Alexey Grivach.

In his opinion, the configuration has yet to be agreed: "Including the possible participation of the Americans in this process, but, of course, not in the form of control on their part."

Without Russia, the EU does not have any alternatives to American LNG right now - despite the escalation of trade wars, other options from a political point of view are less preferable for the alliance countries, says Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman. In his opinion, political Europe, which makes decisions, is not yet ripe for the resumption of Russian gas supplies.

"At the moment, there is no serious discussion of the resumption of Russian pipeline gas supplies in the public field — only isolated statements are heard periodically, but mostly from people far from actual decision—making," says Sergey Kaufman. He notes that Central European countries (Austria, Hungary, Slovakia) are interested in importing Russian gas, which either still receive Russian gas via the Turkish Stream or have recently imported it through Ukraine.

"At the same time, for example, Germany, which until 2022 was the largest European buyer of Russian gas, definitely takes a rather tough position in relation to Russian energy resources, as evidenced by Friedrich Merz's statements," adds the Finam analyst.