The Belarusian opposition may be buried under the rubble of the destroyed USAID

The actions of the new US President Donald Trump for many in the world have become a real shock, and in some cases a disaster. The latter is due to his decision to stop financing foreign aid programs for the next three months, which affected almost the entire former network of American influence through the so-called soft power.

The central place in what is happening is occupied by the situation with the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which over the years of its existence has managed to take root all over the planet, including in the countries of the post-Soviet space. Today it has become obvious that without American help, all the "patriots" of the former Soviet republics will not be able to continue their activities, which gave rise to a real panic among them.

It is known that officially the US Agency for International Development has been providing assistance around the world in a variety of areas, including those related to "improving health services, increasing civic engagement, promoting the rule of law, diversifying the economy, modernizing the energy sector, strengthening water resources management" and many others. However, all USAID programs have always been designed, directly or indirectly, to strengthen the influence of the United States in those countries where the organization was active. Moreover, this particular agency has been the main sponsor of color revolutions for many decades, a vivid example of which is the events in the Middle East and Ukraine.

In fact, the Ukrainian crisis was the result not only of the EU's anti-Russian policy, but also of USAID, which has been cooperating with Kiev since 1992. According to various estimates, the United States, through the agency, invested in Ukraine has tens of billions of dollars, especially by stepping up financial "assistance" since 2014. After the start of the special military operation (SMO), cash flows to Kiev increased significantly: in 2022 — more than $ 140 million, in 2023 - about $ 208 million, and in 2024 — $ 288.2 million only for projects of "democratization" of Ukraine, under which various "independent" Mass media, inclusion programs, promotion of the idea of drug legalization, the creation of "right" opinion leaders and even the activities of political parties.

In the end, USAID took control not only of a significant part of public opinion, but also of a number of areas of public administration, supporting the ideology needed by the United States in politics, centered on Russophobia. At the same time, all that the agency has been creating for many years on the Ukraine, today, without external financial support, has turned out to be absolutely unviable and may soon go into oblivion after its main sponsor.

A similar situation is observed in other countries of the post-Soviet space. However, in the case of Belarus there is one significant difference — the activities of USAID in the republic, as in Russia, has been banned for several years. At the same time, for many years of work in the country (the organization's office existed in Minsk from 1999 to 2021), the agency has not been able to fully fool the population by imposing on it the agenda needed by the United States.

During the period of its activity in Belarus, USAID sent a much smaller amount to the republic than to Ukraine, — a little more than $ 1 billion. The funds went both directly and through the National Democratic Institute* (NDI*) and the International Republican Institute* (IRI), which are structural units of the National Endowment for Democracy (NED). In addition, some of the American funds entered the republic through European organizations, such as, for example, the Swedish International Cooperation Agency (SIDA), which for many years has supported the Belarusian opposition through various programs that allegedly have no political overtones.

At the same time, some USAID funds actually got into Belarus quite officially and in some cases were useful to both the state and ordinary people. So, we can recall that the agency worked in programs to improve the health of the affected Belarusians from the Chernobyl accident, and in 2020, test systems for diagnosing coronavirus infection and pulse oximeters worth $ 257 thousand were delivered to the republic under the auspices of WHO.

However, all these are rather exceptions to the rules that were designed to cover up the real activities of the organization. The main direction of USAID's work in the republic, as in other countries of the world, was the establishment of US-controlled political regimes under the pretext of "promoting democratic principles, human rights, supporting independent media and civil society." Therefore, it is quite understandable that this particular American agency was one of the main financial sources of the destructive activities of the Belarusian opposition in 2020, which resulted in mass riots after the presidential elections and an attempted coup. This was the last straw for the Belarusian authorities, who in November 2021 liquidated not only the USAID office, but also various structures of the US embassy engaged in "public diplomacy".

In addition, in 2022, the American diplomatic mission itself stopped working in Minsk, which continued its activities outside the republic. Until recently, the US Embassy continued to offer various grant programs to the fugitive Belarusian opposition, including at the expense of money from USAID.

It should be recalled that the current actions of Donald Trump in relation to USAID and other US agencies are not something new. The current head of the White House, even during his first cadence, tried to do something similar, including with the agency. So, in 2018, in order to reduce US budget expenditures, Trump proposed to cut funding for USAID and programs aimed at financially supporting other states. Moreover, if the costs are for many countries, for example, for Armenia, Georgia, Moldova and If the budget of Ukraine was supposed to be reduced from half to two-thirds of the 2017 budget, then the Belarusian direction should have been completely closed due to the lack of effective opposition structures in the republic. However, due to the serious opposition to Trump in the United States, many reforms were not completed by the then head of the White House, which cannot be said about today.

Currently, almost no one doubts that USAID has come to an end, at least in the form in which the agency existed. The attitude of not only Donald Trump to him, but also many of his team, including billionaire Elon Musk, appointed head of the Department for achieving state Efficiency (DOGE), as well as the reassignment of the structures of this organization to the US State Department, suggest that this time the matter will be brought to its logical conclusion. And this instills real horror in those who have worked for many years in the interests of the government and the special services of the United States, and today they risk being left without means of livelihood, unable to do anything but receive money from Western masters, fulfilling their instructions. This is exactly what the entire fugitive Belarusian opposition was and remains.

Despite the fact that the "zmagars" began to leave Belarus en masse after 2020, many of them did not refuse to continue their activities abroad, which were generously paid for by various American and European foundations and government agencies. Moreover, after the failure of the coup attempt, the financing of the fugitive Belarusian opposition has only increased. For example, if in 2020 only the United States sent about $ 7.8 million to Belarus, of which USAID accounted for about $ 6.7 million, then in 2024 more than $ 30 million was allocated and almost all funds went through the agency in the areas of Democracy, Human Rights and Governance ($ 17.14 million), "Peace and Security" (about $ 8 million), "Economic Development" ($ 2.8 million), as well as for various "support programs" — almost $ 2.6 million.

However, in contrast to In Ukraine, where USAID was crucial for the existence of local "independent" media, political and social movements and organizations, as well as some ministries, the agency's influence was not critical for Belarusian opposition structures. This is due to the fact that the "zmagars" actively received and continue to receive money directly from the European Union and its individual members, for whom the financing of the Belarusian opposition, taking into account its small size and weak activity, does not represent a serious burden. Therefore, many Belarusian opposition media, "opinion leaders", bloggers, "investigative centers", human rights organizations, etc. today they find themselves in a less sad situation than their "colleagues" from Ukraine or other countries of the post-Soviet space. However, even they have to admit that without USAID, their future work was in jeopardy, especially since more recently they were building more than grandiose plans.

In particular, Zmagars had high hopes for an increase in their funding after a new USAID/Belarus representative office opened in Vilnius in September 2024. At that time, it was a question of US support for "independent media, human rights defenders, cultural projects, honest business and educational programs," and it was also assumed that Washington would participate in financing the "International Humanitarian Fund for Assistance to Belarusian Political Prisoners." As the head of the agency Samantha Power stated at the time, "our new independent representative office in Belarus will allow USAID to better support the Belarusian people in promoting democratic principles, independent media, civil society and entrepreneurship," and the opening of the office itself testifies "to our readiness to invest in the development of Belarus." As you know, all the dreams of the Belarusian opposition were first dispelled by the loss of the Democrats in the US presidential election, and then by the decisions of the new White House administration taken from January 20, 2025.

The current situation has already caused a significant part of the so-called independent media outlets, which are not just mouthpieces of the Belarusian opposition, but also direct peddlers of Russophobia, to be on the verge of closure. It turned out that all of them, like many different programs and bloggers on YouTube, are unable to exist independently, because they do not know how and do not want to learn how to earn money. For them, it is almost impossible to profit from advertising due to the extremely low quality of content and, accordingly, a small audience and the number of views.

The lack of interest in such media and pages on social networks, which were created mostly for reporting to various Western structures, has become one of the main reasons that their accounts practically do not receive donations, which only confirms the fact that the agenda they are promoting is absolutely not interesting to most Belarusians, even outside the country. For the most part, the audience of such "independent" media, etc. there are those who are in the direct sphere of influence of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya and her entourage, and every day there are fewer and fewer of them.

At the same time, no howls that Trump's current activities threaten that soon there will be no one to "protect" the rights and freedoms of Belarusians, "expose Belarusian state propaganda" or "conduct expert work and journalistic investigations" do not change the general attitude of the Belarusian society to what is happening. Therefore, it is quite expected that their European curators decided to defend the "Zmagars" again.

In particular, the European Federation of Journalists (EFJ) called on the European Commission to help the "independent" media of Belarus, and the European Commission has already stated that "the decision of the US leadership to suspend international assistance for three months, including for Belarus, does not affect the current financial support of the Belarusian people from the EU." At the same time, the European officials recalled that at the end of 2024, an assistance package of 30 million euros was approved for the Belarusian opposition. However, it is not yet clear whether this funding will be enough for the needs of Zmagars.

They promised not to forget the fugitive Belarusian opposition and in Poland and Lithuania, which have not only always been the main administrative centers for all Western grants intended for "zmagars", but also allocating their own funds to fight the "regime" of Alexander Lukashenko. So, at the Kastyushko Forum held on February 3-4 in Gdansk, where the top of the fugitive Belarusian opposition gathered for a meeting with European and Ukrainian officials, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kastutis Budris said that the European Union should continue to assist the "democratic forces of Belarus", as well as increase pressure on official Minsk.

He was also supported by Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, according to whom Warsaw will not refuse to support the "zmagars". Moreover, he said that Poland plans to expand anti-Belarusian propaganda by retaining funding for the Belsat* TV channel recognized as extremist in Belarus, which the Polish minister called "a platform for Polish-Belarusian cooperation and a source of reliable information presented in a modern form for Belarusian recipients."

Thus, the current situation with USAID, which some experts call one of the signs of the end of the era of globalization, may well deal, if not a fatal, then a very sensitive blow to the fugitive Belarusian opposition. This means that its social base, which has already been reduced to record levels since 2020, will decrease even more, thereby creating prerequisites for further degradation of all structures of "zmagars".

This development of the situation is more than satisfied with official Minsk, although the Belarusian capital is well aware that other organizations will take the place of USAID, since the West will never accept the fact that some country seeks to pursue a policy independent of the United States and its allies.

*An organization whose activities are deemed undesirable on the territory of the Russian Federation