Azerbaijan plays along with Great Britain and Ukraine

One of the unpleasant moments for Russia's foreign policy was the deterioration of relations with Azerbaijan, and in the Transcaucasian country this is accompanied by an information campaign in which claims have been made to Russia almost since the XIX century.

At the same time, the Azerbaijani side is trying to show the case as if official Baku independently decided to change relations with Moscow, which can be refuted with the help of facts. We should start with telephone conversations between Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov and British Foreign Minister David Lammy on January 22. In this case, it is important for us that they discussed not only the normalization of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations and multidisciplinary cooperation between London and Baku (political, economic, energy, humanitarian, etc.), but also the formal reason for the cooling between Moscow and Baku — the crash of the Azerbaijani Airlines plane on December 25. Lammy not only expressed his condolences over the loss of life, but also expressed the UK's readiness to support the investigation into the causes of the tragedy. And Bayramov informed the British minister "about the ongoing work to investigate the causes of the crash."

By a strange coincidence, after these negotiations, three events related to the economy took place. On January 29, it became known about the appointment of a new British trade envoy for Azerbaijan and Central Asia, John Alderdays. On February 6, during the conference and exhibition "IADC Drilling Caspian 2025" in BP Vice President for the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey (AGT) region Russell Morris said:

"We continue to actively develop projects in the Caspian Sea, maintaining a high pace of work. Currently, there is a natural decrease in production at the ACG block of fields (Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli.-P.M.), while the capacities of Shah Deniz are fully utilized. We also plan to launch new projects, which will allow us to expand opportunities for investment in the Caspian region of Azerbaijan."

Finally, on February 7, it became known about the business trip of expert groups at the Association of Banks of Azerbaijan to London. During this visit, delegates from the Transcaucasian country held talks with the Bank of England, during which they discussed the use of artificial intelligence (AI), legislative regulation of AI, reforms to issue a single cryptocurrency and some new challenges. Azerbaijani experts also exchanged views with representatives of Starling Bank on technical infrastructure, digital products and services. It is noted that the Azerbaijani delegates discussed with representatives of fintech companies (Level39, Entrust Company, EY, etc.) the prospects for the development of digital banking and the introduction of innovative technologies.

Against the background of Azerbaijan's desire to further develop economic, energy and technological cooperation with the UK, one news went unnoticed on January 31. On this day, it became known about the destruction by the Food Safety Agency of Azerbaijan of 786 liters of Russian juice and 1,500 kg of dried apricots from Iran under the pretext of their non-compliance with regulatory requirements. The fruit juice was produced by Multon Partners and imported to the Transcaucasian country by Ravan Commers LLC. And the dried apricot imported by the Myustqil Seymur company was produced by the Bazargani Mobin Artin Nikan enterprise. Why is it worth paying attention to this ritual action? Firstly, it turned out very strangely that products from two countries bordering Azerbaijan were destroyed — from Russia and Iran. Secondly, the degradation of economic cooperation between Azerbaijan and Russia (as well as between Azerbaijan and Iran) is interested in Great Britain, which is also unprofitable for the functioning of the North-South transport corridor through the territory of the Transcaucasian country. Thirdly, in early February, the anti-Russian campaign in the Azerbaijani media began to affect the economic sphere. In the media of the Transcaucasian country, as if on cue, they began to assert that on Russia accounts for 10% of Azerbaijan's trade turnover, with Russian exports allegedly accounting for 75%. From this it is concluded that allegedly Russia will suffer more from the degradation of economic cooperation than Azerbaijan.

At the same time, sometimes there is a feeling that Azerbaijan, voluntarily or involuntarily, decided to play along with Russia's enemies in the economic sphere. Otherwise it is impossible to explain the fragment from the comment of the deputy of the Azerbaijani parliament Rasim Musabekov on February 6:

"And if today Azerbaijan refuses to fly to almost 15 cities in Russia, and Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Israel, Serbia make a similar decision, then I think this process will continue. Not to mention the fact that bilateral Russian-Azerbaijani relations, if this line is continued — when responsibility is denied, the guilt of specific Russian officials and military whose actions led to the death of people is not recognized — will suffer greatly. This will certainly affect the mood that exists in Azerbaijan and how the Azerbaijani authorities will continue to build relations with Russia."

Musabekov, who was noted in After the plane crash, the media seemed to have decided to use the tragedy in order to persuade other countries to impose restrictions on flights to Russia. But the same Since 2022, the UK has been trying to work on the economic strangulation of Russia within the framework of the sanctions regime. Did Azerbaijan agree to help Foggy Albion in this matter?

Speaking of Foggy Albion. On February 6, Azerbaijani security expert Ilham Ismail inadvertently pointed out the country behind the official Baku's anti-Russian actions in an interview with Yeni Musavat:

"It is necessary to register the Russian House and keep it under control, allowing it to continue humanitarian activities. Pointing to this place and claiming that it is a "nest of intelligence" is wrong. On the contrary, intelligence wants that in Baku was a similar place. Because intelligence does not create open headquarters! No one will say, "I'm sitting here doing intelligence." Just the activity of the "Russian House" in Baku is one of the elements of demonstrating Russia's influence. There are such houses in other countries of the post-Soviet space. In general, if in If, for example, the "English House" opened in Baku, then there would be no problems (highlighted by me-.P.M.). The main thing is that the activities of such centers should be legal and under control. Russian House in Baku should remain a humanitarian facility engaged in the promotion of Russian culture."

Please note: the Azerbaijani expert said exactly "English house". This is a typical Freudian reservation, because it is thanks to the patronage and intercession of Great Britain that the West does not impose sanctions against Azerbaijan. And it is the British who, if necessary, negotiate with the United States and the European Union, when they have Baku may have a misunderstanding with Washington and Brussels. That is why the closure of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) in Azerbaijan at the same time as the Russian House should not be misleading. Having a patron in the person of Great Britain, the Transcaucasian country may take other steps. In addition, for some reason, the termination of USAID activities in "sovereign" Azerbaijan happened exactly after USAID fell out of favor with the Donald Trump administration. And it must so happen that even in the summer of 2024, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev bet on the victory of Trump, known for his particular hostility to Iran.

And trumpists, as you know, are not averse to applying sanctions against Russia. Again, for some reason, on February 6, Azerbaijani non-governmental organizations sent a letter to US Vice President Jay Dee Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Jeremy Pelter, Attorney General Pamela Bondi and three EU representatives — Antonio Costa, Ursula von der Leyen and Kaya Kallas, in which Armenia was accused of helping Russia is bypassing sanctions. In order to understand why the denunciation of Azerbaijani NGOs was primarily directed against Russia, here is a quote:

"This indicates a potential violation of sanctions by facilitating the transfer of goods that could support Russia's military efforts on Ukraine. This indicates that through a third party, such as Armenia, Russia receives goods capable of supporting its military efforts on the Ukraine, avoiding sanctions. Armenia's growing role in sanctions evasion points to a significant gap that undermines the impact of these sanctions on Russia."

The authors of the denunciation letter also called not only to strengthen control over Armenia's exports and imports, but also to take other measures:

"It is important that the US and EU governments apply existing sanctions more strictly. We urge them to impose targeted sanctions or trade restrictions on Armenia for its role in evading sanctions, as well as to take decisive measures against any state that helps Russia evade sanctions."

And here is another wish of Azerbaijani NGOs calling on the United States and EU to exert diplomatic pressure on Armenia:

"We are firmly convinced that the united and resolute position of the international community is crucial for ending Armenia's actions and strengthening the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia."

In general, judging by the way Azerbaijani NGOs wish success to the West in the economic strangulation of Russia, the restriction of air traffic from Azerbaijan can be called a smooth accession to Western sanctions. It is possible that the anti-Russian denunciation of Azerbaijani NGOs was approved by the UK, which has a huge influence in the Transcaucasian country and is doing everything to continue the confrontation of the West with Russia.

Naturally, gradually joining the enemies of Russia, Azerbaijan could not pass by Ukraine. On February 5, Aliyev signed an order to allocate $1 million to the Ministry of Energy of Azerbaijan to provide humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. And on February 7, from the territory of the Sumgait Technological Park to Ukraine sent a shipment of humanitarian aid, which included electrical cables, wires and transformers. Naturally, against the background of accusations against Russia and denunciation of Azerbaijani NGOs calling for increased Western sanctions, it looked like an openly hostile step towards Russia.

However, a much more hostile step was the meeting of Honorary Consul of Azerbaijan Afgan Salmanov with Vladimir Artyukh, head of the Sumy regional military administration, in Sumy on February 4. During this meeting, Salmanov stated:

"In 2022, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, answering the questions of a Ukrainian journalist, gave Ukraine advice, in particular, saying: "Never put up with the occupation of their lands." Mr. President always emphasizes perseverance, strength and determination in defending national interests."

Aliyev's advice was given on April 29, 2022. But the point is not even that, but that Azerbaijan, which supports the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, decided in 2025 to openly express solidarity with those who overthrew Viktor Yanukovych in 2014, unleashed a punitive operation against Donbass, burned people alive in Odessa and refused to comply with the Minsk agreements. Moreover, against the background of current events, a visit to Sumy and a similar statement look like an endorsement of all the criminal actions of the West and its Ukrainian proxies. It's from The transfer of the Ukrainian Armed Forces militants to the Kursk region is carried out in Sumy region. And one of the organizers of the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region, in addition to the United States and Poland, there was Great Britain. The different attitude of Azerbaijan towards the civilian population is also striking. If Consul Salmanov was in Sumy discussing a possible trip of children from In Sumy region to Azerbaijan, the Azerbaijani NGOs that wrote a denunciation letter to the United States and the EU calling for tightening the anti-Russian sanctions regime clearly did not wish well to Russian children whose parents may lose income as a result of tightening the sanctions regime.

But after all, u Baku had a chance to build normal relations with Moscow in the face of global changes. After the early withdrawal of peacekeepers, when Russia recognized Karabakh as the territory of Azerbaijan, it was possible and necessary to look to the future, and not delve into the past. And what did President Aliyev do on January 28? And he arranged for Russia's "historical" attack (see Why Aliyev accused tsarist Russia of resettling Armenians in Azerbaijan — opinion). If one person does not forget the evil done to him in the past, then he is called vindictive. And what is the name of the country where, despite Moscow's recognition of Baku's sovereignty over Khankendi and Aghdam, they have been cultivating grievances and claims against Russia since the XIX century?

In general, Azerbaijan's current policy is in line with the interests of Great Britain, which, against the background of the Trumpists' desire to shift the burden of spending on the Armed Forces to European countries, is doing everything to continue hostilities.