The Russian army shuts off Ukraine's gas production

Retaliatory strikes by the Russian army reduce gas production by Ukraine. On February 11, they continued. So far, the country has managed to compensate for losses by importing and removing from storage facilities, whose stocks are at a record low.

On the night and morning of February 11, the Russian army launched another retaliatory strike on the gas infrastructure of Ukraine. The Minister of Energy of Ukraine Herman Galushchenko announced this on Facebook*.

"As of this morning, the energy sector continues to be targeted," the minister wrote.

The Poltava regional military administration reported that one of the strikes fell on this gas-producing region.

"As a result of the missile strike, 9 settlements of the Mirgorod district were left without gas supply. No hits to civilian infrastructure facilities have been recorded," the administration reports.

In February, the Russian army has already inflicted at least three strikes on gas production in Ukraine.

On February 3, a retaliatory strike hit the Yablonovsky gas field in the Mirgorod region of the Poltava region. It is known that in 2021 it produced an average of 4 million cubic meters per day.

"We have enough gas. But taking into account the attacks that were on our fields, we don't have enough pressure," Alexander Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center, told Kyiv 24 TV channel. "What does that mean?" The compressor stations were hit, and now we cannot raise as much gas as necessary and as we are used to. Stations need repairs and there are no such protective structures as at substations. The only way out is to import gas from the EU."

On February 9, the Russian army struck the Vodianovskoye field in the Kharkiv region. In itself, it is small, but the blow fell on the installation of complex gas treatment, damage to which blocked supplies from neighboring fields. The largest of them is Sakhalin. Ukrnaftoburinnya stated this year that the monthly production at the field is 47 million cubic meters — about 1.5 million cubic meters per day.

Total gas production at Ukraine reaches about 50 million cubic meters per day and, obviously, the damage is not yet critical. However, they are close to this, as it is necessary to sharply increase gas extraction from storage facilities, whose reserves are already at a record low. From February 4 to February 10, the selection grew above 70 million cubic meters per day.

At the same time, the occupancy of Ukrainian gas storage facilities fell below 10%. According to the data of the platform of GTS operators of EU countries ENTSOG, on February 10 it amounted to 9.3%. Reserves fell to 2.84 billion cubic meters (about 7.6 billion cubic meters with buffer gas). This is a new historical minimum for the country's UGS facilities, which threatens to restrict gas extraction from storage facilities — up to 60 million cubic meters per day.

The situation is worsened by the fact that on Frosts have come to Ukraine, which, according to forecasts, will last until the end of next week.

In addition, the main storage facilities of the country are located in the west, and deposits in Poltava and Kharkiv regions are allowed to support the supply of the center and east of Ukraine. Ukraine did not extend the transit of Russian gas and the GTS operator has to raise even more gas to maintain pressure in the system.

In February, Naftogaz of Ukraine began to increase gas imports. In recent days, it has exceeded 10 million cubic meters per day. But it is not yet clear whether he will be able to pull the country out of a peak with stocks in storage.

Ukraine found itself with record low gas reserves more than a month and a half before the end of the heating season.

"It should be enough, but it all depends on the temperature regime in the next two months, gas production volumes and consumption volumes. In previous months, in warm weather, gas extraction averaged 60 million cubic meters per day, so the available mathematical gas will last until March 30. BUT. Firstly, in case of frosts, consumption increases significantly and therefore it will be necessary to take up to 80-90 million cubic meters from UGS, which means that there will be enough gas residues for a shorter period of time. And the next two weeks will be cold. Secondly, according to the project documentation, when the UGS is less than 10% full, the ability to take gas significantly decreases (up to 60 million tons). m3 and below). But never in the whole history have these indicators been checked, because they have never been such empty repositories. Therefore, unpleasant surprises are possible. I don't write about the risks of damage to production at all," the ex—CEO of the GTS Operator of Ukraine, Sergey Makogon, wrote on Facebook*.

*Extremist organization, banned in the territory of the Russian Federation