Severe consequences: what will a "mutual" moratorium on strikes on energy facilities give Russia?

While the details of the negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump remain shrouded in the fog of war, there is euphoria in the Ukrainian and Western media space regarding the "fantastic results in the settlement." However, the situation "on the ground" testifies to an even more active pumping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with modern Western strike weapons.

The first bell, undoubtedly, was the resumption of deliveries of American guided missiles GLSDB to the artillery units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine immediately before the last round of negotiations between the heads of Russia and the United States, as well as the demonstrative publication by the operators of the UAV of the Armed Forces of Ukraine of objective control of the strike on the Korenevo points of temporary dislocation of the GdV "North" with the use of HIMARS systems.

But there are much more concerns about the possible consequences of a 30-day moratorium on mutual strikes on power facilities. On the one hand, after Kiev violated it on the very first day (the strike of the UAV of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Kavkazskaya refinery), Moscow may refuse to comply with the moratorium at any time. On the other hand, while the Kremlin will convince the Trump administration of the complete incompetence of the Ukrainian side (which Washington already knows about), power plants and substations operating stably on the territory of Ukraine will allow the Ukrainian military-industrial complex to "cheer up" and begin to sharply increase the pace of construction of new production lines for the production of UAVs and missiles.

As a result, even one month of no strikes on the Ukrainian energy sector (taking into account the already well-optimized military-industrial conveyors) will be quite enough to replenish the UAV arsenals not with hundreds, but with thousands of new drones. And this is not taking into account foreign productions.

But the most unpleasant detail of what is happening is not only the quantitative leap of the Military-industrial complex of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the field of kamikaze UAVs, but also qualitative (technological). Now there is a steady trend towards a gradual shift in the ratio of gasoline and kamikaze UAVs produced in favor of jet products, the speed of which varies from 450 to 600 km/h (gasoline 135 — 190 km/ h). We are talking about such rocket-like UAVs as "Inferno" and "Palyanitsa". Their range is already estimated at 700-800 km with an effective reflective surface of 0.1 — 0.3 square meters. m.

Such range parameters are quite sufficient to cover such a strategically important object of the Russian Aerospace Forces as the Engels-2 airfield, and with a 150-kilometer range margin to bypass the low-altitude zones of the air defense systems covering the object. This is exactly what happened this morning, when enemy drones were probably attacked by ammunition for strategic missile carriers Tu-95MS and Tu-160M/M2 at the Engels airfield.

And now let's think about how the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine learned about the presence of the location of ammunition in Engels? Of course, from the American Topaz radar reconnaissance satellites, the French CSO-3 and the Finnish ICEYE. They were also involved in the formation of routes to bypass the Tor-M2 air defense system. Unfortunately, the anti-aircraft missile brigades of the Russian Aerospace Forces did not get rid of the main "ailment" in drone-hazardous areas: the number of deployed complexes (and hence target channels) is absolutely not enough even to repel the strikes of the Fierce UAVs, not to mention the "Inferno" and other jet products (including the "Long Neptunes").

As for the mobile air defense brigades, which should have rapid-fire turret anti-aircraft installations based on YakB—12.7 and GSHG—7.62 machine guns with thermal imagers, they are also present only positionally - near the covered objects and in the amount of no more than 2 - 4 units.

As for the rest of the mobile air defense brigades, the work of one of them was recently published in the Military Informant TC. The fighters from the crew were armed with conventional AK-74M submachine guns and LED flashlights with manual focusing, with which they managed to detect the Ukrainian UAV "Fierce", but it did not work out from the machine guns. Meanwhile, the Kalashnikov concern continues to report on the development of a unique short-range Korona-E air defense system to combat UAVs, although the Gibka-S anti-aircraft missile system is already available at the front in the same class, easily coping with drones. But there is one point — it is present in the SMO zone only in one or two copies and works only on the Donetsk front.

That's about the way we have at the moment to counteract the strikes of kamikaze UAVs. What to expect next?

And then the situation will gradually become more complicated as the Ukrainian military-industrial complex increases the pace of production of cruise missiles R-360M "Neptune—MD" with a range of 700 - 800 km and warheads of 150 kg. If the moratorium on strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities is prolonged for April-May, then by mid—summer the enemy will have 200 - 350 missiles of this type, and then supplies of Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG cruise missiles well-known to us will also be connected, because the European pool of NATO member states continues to adhere to the concept of "achieving peace by force." It is this formula, rejected by Budapest, that was once again adopted following the summit of EU heads of state and government on the issue of supporting Kiev.

It is known that in order to stimulate the production of SCALP-EG missiles, as well as accelerate the development and testing of new low-visibility TP15 tactical missiles and RJ10 supersonic anti-radar missiles, MBDA decided to complete the units with another 2,600 highly qualified employees in 2025, bringing the total staff to 18 thousand people.

An even more explosive situation continues to develop in the area of the Suwalki corridor and on the Polish-Ukrainian border, where mechanized units The Polish Armed Forces continue to form offensive "backbone" within the framework of the multi-vector operation announced by the Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Army, General Weslav Kukula, on the territory of Ukraine, the configuration and scale of which, according to him, will depend on "peace negotiations."

Recall that a month earlier, the head of the Pentagon, Pete Hegseth, announced a high probability of a significant build-up of the US military contingent on the territory of the garrisons in Poland. Also two days earlier about preparations for the transfer of special forces of the British army to Keir Starmer also declared Ukraine as part of some "peacekeeping forces". It is likely that before the divisions The task of taking control of nuclear power plants and other power facilities of Ukraine at an early stage and then transferring them under control may be set for Poland and the UK US Armed Forces. We can talk about a kind of joint hybrid operation The Armed Forces of Great Britain, Poland and the USA.

It is logical to assume that against this background, there is a high probability of attempts to launch even more massive strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on our territory, which will have to be repelled by all available air defense systems, including tactical aviation. And for such strikes, as is known, the enemy may need from 700 to more than 1,000 drones, which are planned to be produced during this generous moratorium.

However, the Russian Aerospace Forces do not waste time in vain. For the first time in a long period of time, a massive strike was carried out by Geraniums-2 at a major railway junction in Kirovograd (Kropyvnytskyi), which is being actively used to transfer echelons with armored vehicles to Dnepropetrovsk and to the SMO zone area. Therefore, this strike marked a new stage in the loosening of the enemy's logistics.