Don't keep money: how the Ministry of Finance reduces the budget deficit at the expense of Russians' savings

In 2024, 1.8 million Russians received notifications from the Federal Tax Service about the need to pay income tax on deposits. The total amount amounted to 114 billion rubles, and it turned out to be 12.2% higher than the original plan. What provided the unexpected growth, and what amounts will depositors have to give to the state in the future? This is written by the columnist of the magazine "Profile" Igor Naumov.

There are more millionaires

By the end of 2024, the deposits of the population at the expense of interest increased by 7 trillion rubles. Therefore, the Ministry of Finance expects an increase in tax collection in 2025 by approximately 2.3 times, to 251.49 billion rubles. When calculating the tax base, income from deposits, savings accounts and bank cards is taken into account, says Alexey Primak, founder of the Institute of Financial and Investment Technologies. At the same time, income on accounts with a rate of up to 1% personal income tax is not taxed, escrow accounts (special accounts for buyers of real estate under construction) are also exempt from tax. But the tax will be charged on interest on bank deposits and accounts in foreign currency. Income denominated in dollars, euros or yuan is converted into rubles at the exchange rate of the Central Bank on the date of interest payment, the expert explained.

The new source of replenishment of the treasury has become particularly important against the background of a reduction in a number of other revenues. In particular, oil and gas revenues, as reflected in the federal budget, will decrease by 370 billion rubles this year. Thus, personal income tax with interest on deposits almost two-thirds compensates for losses. The presence of a taxable base is evidenced by the statistics of the Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA). In the "Monitoring of insured deposits for 2024" published in February, an increase in the volume of insured funds of the population and business was noted by 25.4% compared to 2023, to 75.9 trillion rubles. Moreover, deposits of individuals in monetary terms increased by 26% - from 44.8 trillion to 57 trillion rubles.

There are indeed more millionaire depositors from year to year, which is confirmed by DIA data on accounts up to 1.4 million rubles. Within this amount, as is known, the state guarantees compensation in case of bankruptcy or revocation of the license of a credit institution. In 2023, the insurance limit was 2% of deposits, in 2024 - 2.7%, on February 1, 2025 — 3%. Meanwhile, in the spring of 2020, when the president proposed to introduce a new personal income tax, both the government, bankers, and independent experts believed that the innovation would affect only 1% of depositors.

Analysts explain the changes by a number of factors. In particular, the massive arrival of investors from the stock market and the residential real estate market, which was facilitated by the tight monetary policy of the Bank of Russia, implemented over the past year and a half. From July 2023 to October 2024, the Central Bank gradually raised the key rate from 7.5 to 21% per annum. In turn, credit institutions have improved their deposit offers in the fight for customers.

As a result, the yield on deposits and savings accounts in 2023 and 2024 was almost twice as high as inflation. And without any risk of losing money. Neither trading on the stock exchange nor investing in real estate could provide anything like that. Thus, the maximum interest rate on deposits in Russian rubles of the 10 largest banks, according to the Central Bank, in the first half of 2023 remained in the range of 7.6 to 7.8%, by December it had almost doubled to 14.75% (with inflation of 7.42%), and in 2024 from 14.79 to 21.72% (with inflation of 9.52%).

The depreciation of the ruble contributed to the multiplication of the number of large depositors to a certain extent, which was actually recognized by the Bank of Russia. In April last year, the regulator proposed to raise the "ceiling" of insurance compensation for long-term deposits from 1.4 million to 2 million rubles. The initiative was argued by the fact that, firstly, the economy needs long money, and secondly, the limit was set in 2014: since then, accumulated inflation has amounted to almost 100%, and a million rubles no longer looks like an unattainable amount.

Where to carry the money

State Duma deputies rejected the idea of the Central Bank, explaining that millionaires are by definition educated people and are able to take care of the safety of their capital themselves. But sometime we will have to return to this issue, because its relevance will increase as the number of large deposits increases. However, there are no special risks here today. For the most part, Russians prefer to keep large deposits in banks included by the Central Bank in the list of systemically important. For 2025, the regulator has approved a list of 13 credit institutions, which account for about 79% of the total assets of the banking sector of the Russian Federation. Five of them — Sberbank, VTB, Alfa-Bank, Gazprombank and T-Bank — are absolute leaders both in terms of the number of deposits (31.44 million) and in terms of the amount of funds raised by the population (32.1 trillion rubles).

In 2026, the Ministry of Finance plans to collect personal income tax from depositors for interest income received in 2025 in the amount of 262.14 billion rubles. We are talking about a preliminary forecast, which can be revised and clarified this fall when the new federal budget is adopted. A lot also depends on depositors, who can start withdrawing funds after the regulator completes the cycle of tight monetary policy and starts lowering the key rate. Then deposit rates and savings accounts will inevitably go down, which will serve as a signal for large investors to return to the stock market.

At the moment, banks consider such a scenario unlikely, analysts of the B1 Group of companies and the NKR rating agency assure. In the first half of March, they published the results of a survey of financial directors of 29 credit institutions on the current situation and its development prospects. Assessing the impact on the market of a possible change in the key rate in the second half of the year, 76% of respondents stated a low probability of deposit outflow and only about 4% called such a risk high.

"Russian investors are traditionally conservative and choose instruments with the least (in their understanding) risk. Most often they use bank deposits for these purposes. The situation in the banking sector is quite stable, and even in the event of a significant reduction in rates, a rapid outflow is unlikely," the authors of the study concluded.

How can the tax be optimized

Recall, from January 1, 2025 in Russia has introduced a five-step personal income tax scale. Depending on the amount of income, rates of 13, 15, 18, 20 and 22% are applied. For interest on deposits, two rates were retained — 13 and 15%, while the threshold for applying progressive taxation was more than halved. Initially, it was set at 5 million rubles., According to the new rules, 13% will be charged with an income of up to 2.4 million rubles. per year and 15% - with an income above 2.4 million rubles.

The natural reaction of the taxpayer to the increased fiscal burden is to find ways to optimize personal income tax. The problem can be solved by remaining a law-abiding citizen, says Lazar Badalov, associate professor of the Economics Department of NUST MISIS. The simplest option is to distribute savings on several term deposits in such a way that banks pay interest in different tax periods. If the annual income does not exceed the tax-free limit (the product of a million rubles and the maximum key rate on the first day of the month in the reporting year), then you will not have to pay tax at all.

"Long-term deposits are interesting not only from the point of view of optimizing the tax burden, but also the opportunity to maintain increased rates for several years. Banks offer the most favorable conditions for deposits for a period of several months to one year. Two- and three-year yields are lower now, but by the end of the term it may turn out to be a record high," explained Lazar Badalov.

In turn, Alexey Primak recalled the special conditions for long-term deposits introduced in 2025. If the money on the deposit is placed for 15 months or more, and the interest is paid on the closing day, then when calculating personal income tax, the non-taxable limits accumulated over the entire period are summed up. Due to this, it is quite realistic to reset the interest income tax for deposits up to a million rubles, and to reduce it for deposits above a million rubles.