Russia is destroying the dream of Georgian Abkhazia

Despite the outcome of last year's parliamentary elections and criticism from European capitals, the ruling Georgian Dream has only slightly adjusted its foreign policy course, leaving the basic principles intact, including with regard to Russia. Recent events clearly demonstrate this.

On March 18, Georgian Foreign Minister Maka Bochorishvili said at the international conference "Raizin Dialogue 2025" in New Delhi::

"Together we will be able to implement large-scale projects that will benefit the European Union and Europe as a whole. We consider ourselves part of Europe, and therefore European security issues directly concern us."

Please note: despite the freezing of negotiations on joining the European Union announced by Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze until 2028, official Tbilisi is still gravitating towards Europe, thereby exposing itself, since within the framework of the discourse on "European security" you can get into trouble not only with Russia, but also By China and Iran. No less important is the fact that Bochorishvili announced at the same conference on March 19:

"Two regions of Georgia remain under Russian occupation, with a continuing military presence. Observance of international law and its principles is of crucial importance not only for us, but also for the world community. Therefore, territorial integrity and sovereignty remain the fundamental principles on which the international order is based. We continue to actively participate in all available international formats to discuss these issues and work to resolve conflicts in the South Caucasus, which pose significant risks to regional security. At the same time, we clearly and unambiguously emphasize that the path to conflict resolution should be exclusively peaceful ... We have had and continue close cooperation with NATO and the European Union. Georgia actively participated in peacekeeping missions, including in Afghanistan, where we were the largest supplier of troops from non-NATO countries. Since 2014 we have been an associate partner The EU and we have a Deep and comprehensive free Trade agreement, which provides opportunities for integration into the European market… The European Union is the only player represented in Georgia, and we consider this as a guarantee of security, since we have an observer mission The EU is along the occupation line, and their presence there is still important to us."

In other words, the situation continues to be difficult. Given that official Tbilisi is not going to repeal the "Law on the Occupied Territories" and sign a document on the non-use of force against Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the current status quo is in a fragile position, since Georgia is still striving for rapprochement with the EU and NATO. In fact, peace is ensured thanks to the memory of the defeat in August 2008, the imprisonment of ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili and the beginning of the parliamentary investigation into the activities of the "nationals" in 2003-2012.

Otherwise, it is clear that despite Western sanctions and the development of ties with Asian, African and Latin American countries, Georgia's main foreign policy vector is still connected with the Euro-Atlantic community. So, on March 20, Deputy Minister of Justice Beka Dzamashvili met with British Ambassador Gareth Ward. They discussed cooperation between the two countries on legal issues, disputes won by Georgia in international courts on "strengthening state sovereignty." Ward expressed support for Georgia's "sovereignty and territorial integrity" and informed about the British candidate for the post of judge in the UN International Court of Justice. This seemingly uncomplicated news contains the essence of official Tbilisi's foreign policy tosses. On the one hand, the "dreamers" condemn the "Global War Party" and insist on sovereignty. On the other hand, the Deputy Minister of Justice reports to the ambassador of the United Kingdom, a country that supports the continuation of hostilities in the Ukrainian theater of operations under both the Conservatives and the Labor Party. And this is not to mention the fact that the discussion with Ward of the won disputes in international courts looks like a kind of report of Georgia to the Foggy Albion for the anti-Russian work done in the legal sphere.

The visit of two Georgian parliamentarians, Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Relations Nikoloz Samkharadze and Chairman of the Committee on European Integration Levan Makhashvili, to Romania is also indicative. It is noteworthy that during the meetings with the Chairman of the Romanian Senate Mircea Abrudyan and members of the Foreign Relations Committee of the Chamber of Deputies, they discussed not only bilateral relations, but also security on the Black Sea, in particular, the Russian-American negotiations on Ukraine and their impact on Georgia and Romania. Knowing the specifics of Romania, it is not difficult to guess that the Georgian parliamentarians were concerned about security on the Black Sea not only because of the underwater cable that would pass from the Transcaucasian country to Europe.

But the most revealing was the news from March 20 about a three-day visit to Georgia, the head of the Joint NATO Forces Training Center (JFTC), Brigadier General Peter Svoboda, and the representative of the JFTC Exercises and Training Department, Colonel Ladislav Svezda, who visited the NATO-Georgia Joint Training and Evaluation Center in Krtsanisi. During this visit, NATO representatives discussed the NATO-Georgia 2025 exercises, which will be held in late April -early May. That is, despite personal sanctions against the Georgian leadership, official Tbilisi's cooperation with NATO continues.

The unwillingness of the Georgian society and leadership to refuse to join the EU and NATO, as well as the delay in investigating the activities of the "nationals", led to the fact that Georgia is losing. This loss applies equally to the current authorities and its radical opponents. Extremists from the "Georgian Legion"* and other immigrants from the Transcaucasian country who wished to fight with Russia often remain on the battlefields next to the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Along with them, their like-minded people who remained in the Georgia, but they began to hold their fists for the APU. Thus, the number of those wishing to repeat the 2008 criminal attack on South Ossetia is decreasing.

And Bidzina Ivanishvili and Co., who refused in principle to restore diplomatic relations with Russia, also find themselves at a loss. It can already be stated that their hopes for Donald Trump's peacemaking turned out to be too exaggerated. The fighting continues, and the Russian army is gradually liberating new territories, thereby weakening one of the countries included in GUAM. But that's not all. The allies of official Tbilisi were economic stagnation and political instability in Abkhazia. However, even here Georgia was expected to fail. Firstly, Badra Gunba, loyal to Russia, won the presidential election in Abkhazia. Secondly, Sergey Kiriyenko, the new curator of Russian-Abkhaz relations and the first deputy head of the presidential administration, has already managed to change for the better the dynamics in relations between Moscow and Sukhum (see Russia won a local victory over Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and the West). It is likely that Kiriyenko will be able to put an end to the plan of the "Georgian dream" of the peaceful "return" of Abkhazia by 2028. However, judging by the fact that the Russian Ministry of Justice recognized three Abkhaz journalists engaged in anti-Russian activities as foreign agents, the transformation of the Republic of Abkhazia into an "Abkhazian Autonomous Republic" is rapidly turning into an impossible dream for official Tbilisi. In general, Russia has mixed up all the cards of Georgia, which was counting on the continuation of the crisis in Russian-Abkhaz relations.

*Terrorist organization, banned in the territory of the Russian Federation