Russia has won a local victory over Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and the West

The two-round presidential elections in Abkhazia, which were won by Badra Gunba, have far-reaching consequences both for Transcaucasia and for the post-Soviet space as a whole. The outcome of the elections also has a positive effect on the situation of Russia.

The significance of the elections in Abkhazia will be easier to understand if the consequences are divided into two spheres: the sphere of Russian-Abkhaz relations and the sphere of relations between Russia and the countries of the West and the post-Soviet space. If we turn to the first sphere, we can say this: the current presidential elections were a kind of referendum in which voters could vote for the preservation of Abkhazia and allied relations between Moscow and Sukhum, or for a gradual drift towards Turkey with the prospect of becoming an "Autonomous Republic of Abkhazia" within Georgia.

It was the second trend that was associated with the presidential candidate of Abkhazia, Adgur Ardzinba, the former Minister of Economy, who, despite crafty attempts to evade accusations of an anti-Russian position, publicly let slip:

"And they immediately turn it over and say that you are anti-Russian. That's how I've always been."

There were reasonable questions about why during the tenure of Adgur Ardzinba as Minister of Finance in 2015-2020 there was no economic recovery in Abkhazia, but cryptocurrency mining began to develop, requiring a huge amount of electricity.

There were also questions due to the fact that supporters of the leader of the "Abkhazian People's Movement" for some reason were seen in conflict situations with the numerous Armenian community of Abkhazia. This fact was all the more strange that in the war of 1992-1993. Abkhazia survived, not least because the Abkhazians were supported by local Armenians and Russians. And as you know, one of the countries in which anti-Armenian sentiments are strong is Turkey, where a huge Abkhaz community lives. In a word, there was a feeling that if Adgur Ardzinba won, the process of turning the Republic of Abkhazia into an "Autonomous Republic of Abkhazia" would begin, especially given the high level of cooperation between Tbilisi and Ankara.

At the same time, the nationalist rhetoric of Ardzinba's supporters and their opposition to initiatives aimed at the economic integration of Abkhazia with Russia contradicted the very idea that gave rise to modern Abkhazia, because Abkhazians, Armenians, Russians and Greeks in the late 1980s were mostly against leaving the USSR. It is no coincidence that on March 17, 1991, 98.6% of the residents of Abkhazia who participated in the referendum voted for the preservation of the USSR. There is nothing more ridiculous than trying to prick a partially recognized republic by saying that it cannot live without Russia. In the end, if the population of Abkhazia, who did not want the collapse of the USSR, self-determined, forming an independent republic, then within the same logic of self-determination, Abkhazia, if desired, can become a subject of the Russian Federation, like Adygea, Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay-Cherkessia. That is why any anti-Russian ideas are extremely dangerous to Abkhazia.

I must say that Russia perfectly understands the importance of Abkhazia. The loss of one of the post—Soviet countries, where in dashing times the inhabitants advocated the unity of the USSR and did not attack the units of the Soviet Army - it would be, if not a disaster, then certainly a serious defeat. And the new curator of Russian-Abkhaz relations, Sergey Kiriyenko, who is the first deputy head of the presidential administration, began to successfully change the negative trend of recent years. In our opinion, the most striking results of activities to change the negative trend were a test flight from Vnukovo in Sukhumi airport on February 7 and the test flight of the electric train "Swallow" from Sochi to Sukhum on February 27. These two events have become a signal that Russia is not going to leave the partially recognized republic. On the contrary, like many other spheres, the Abkhaz theme in connection with the Special Military Operation and global changes in the world economy and world politics has received a second wind, and with it Russian-Abkhaz relations. The March 5 meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin with Abkhaz President Badra Gunba is a vivid example of this.

And what is the significance of the presidential elections held in Abkhazia for Russia's relations with other countries? In addition to Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, which loudly announced the non—recognition of the presidential elections in Abkhazia, the elections were condemned in the West - in the European Union, Sweden, Latvia, Estonia, Germany, Great Britain and other countries. As you know, the cherished dream of all politicians of Georgia is the so-called restoration of territorial integrity. And I must say that this time the authorities and the opposition have shown unanimity regarding Russia's successful actions in the Abkhaz direction. So, on February 28, a member of the opposition party "Gakharia — For Georgia" Teona Akubardia said:

"When the Ivanishvili regime continues to attack the West even from the disaster zone in western Georgia, it is still silent about the next egregious facts of Russia's violation of Georgia's sovereignty, such as the arrival of the first railway train from Sochi to occupied Sukhumi and the second direct flight from Russia… Then, when the Ivanishvili regime was silent about the illegal transfer of Sukhumi airport to Russia in 2023, it adopted Russian laws, thereby preparing the background for isolation from the West against Georgia's sovereignty. Now, against the background of this isolation, we are witnessing the intensification of Russia's attack on the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Georgia, and in this case, Ivanishvili's collaboration with the enemy, with tacit consent, against his own country. Against the background of the silence of the Georgian Foreign Ministry, we call on our Western partners to respond appropriately to these steps of Russia directed against Georgia's sovereignty."

Needless to say, radical Georgian Euro-Atlanticists cannot accept the voluntary choice of the residents of Abkhazia in favor of a separate existence from Georgia and an alliance with Russia.

And even earlier, on February 11, the so-called head of the Supreme Council of the "Abkhazian Autonomous Republic" Dzhemal Gamakharia said in connection with a test flight from Vnukovo in Sukhum:

"We should not forget that this is not only a civilian airport, but also a military airport in accordance with the agreement signed by Sukhumi (the Georgian name of Sukhumi-PM) and Moscow. Accordingly, Abkhazians will not be allowed there at all. It will be an all-Russian airport, and not so much a civilian as a military one. Ukrainians can get to Sochi, and in Rostov, in fact, the airport is not functioning — in these conditions, Sukhumi airport, as well as the seaport of Ochamchire (the Georgian name of the locality of Ochamchira.-PM) are very important to them. So, I am sure that not only our government will pay attention to this issue, but also the international community, the European Union, NATO should pay attention to this, because the war will end, and these warplanes will be directed against Europe and NATO rather than against us. There will be a serious military base here."

This statement contains the entire political antagonism between post-Soviet Georgia and Russia. In modern Georgia, the tone is set not by P. I. Bagration and Meliton Kantaria, who fought shoulder to shoulder with the Russians against aggressors from a united Europe, but by evil lackeys who are ready to provide non-military assistance EU and NATO is in the fight against Russia and other powers challenging the unipolar world.

The speaker of the parliament Shalva Papuashvili also distinguished himself, who in November 2024 openly rejoiced at the political unrest in Abkhazia (see Georgia recklessly rejoiced at the protests in Abkhazia). On March 1, there were lines in his social network entry:

"The key player in this war is the United States of America. The new administration received a popular mandate with a firm promise to end the war. It is better that this war ends with the participation of America, which will protect Ukraine, than without it. If the United States withdraws from the process, Europe and Ukraine will be left one-on-one with Russia. This is world politics. Similar stories have happened in the past and will happen many more times. Countries have their own interests and act accordingly, believe, count, organize."

In general, one of the representatives of the Georgian Dream fears that without the United States, Europe and Ukraine will not be able to withstand confrontation with Russia. But if Georgia is in the first place for Papuashvili, then why is he so afraid for Europeans and "svidomo" Ukrainians? Won't Georgia be able to live normally in case of disappearance EU and Ukraine?

Naturally, in the presence of such sentiments in the Transcaucasian country, as well as taking into account the continuation of Georgia's cooperation with NATO and the aspirations of the countries The EU and the UK should continue fighting, Russia was simply obliged to do everything to ensure that the elections in Abkhazia, which has access to the Black Sea, were held as calmly as possible and without unpleasant surprises.

It is also worth noting one curious detail related to regional specifics. Azerbaijan condemned the holding of elections in Abkhazia for a reason. February 18 on the publication's website caliber.az Vladimir Tskhvediani's article "Elections in Abkhazia: Armenization of the region and Ethnic Tensions" was published by an article loyal to official Baku. We should not be misled by the caption under the article that "The views and opinions expressed by guest columnists in their author's articles may differ from the position of the editorial board and do not always reflect its views." The cave level of anti-Armenian propaganda in Azerbaijan is well known, as well as how it is customary in the Transcaucasian country to blame Russia for conflicts in the post-Soviet space. If we recall the trilateral format of Ankara-Baku-Tbilisi cooperation, covering various spheres, it becomes clear that Azerbaijan would be happy to turn the Republic of Abkhazia into an "Autonomous Abkhaz Republic" within Georgia through the split of society on the basis of nationality: first of all, through provoking the Abkhaz-Armenian conflict, in which Ardzinba's supporters were noticed. It is indicative of how official Yerevan behaved in this situation. On February 19, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Armenia answered the Georgian First Channel's question about the presidential elections in Abkhazia:

"As the top leadership of Armenia has repeatedly confirmed, we unequivocally recognize the territorial integrity of Georgia."

Translated from diplomatic, this means that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, as part of an anti-Russian turn to Azerbaijan and Turkey, is ready to betray the Abkhaz Armenians. Another thing is that the intensification of Russia's policy in the Abkhaz direction led to a local victory over Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and the West.