The lifting of Western sanctions on Russian energy carriers may be quite slow. At the same time, Russia may not want to return to the status quo, as it was before SMO. This was stated by the largest international traders.
Traders Vitol, Mercuria, Trafigura and Gunvor dominated the trade in Russian oil before the start of their SMO on Ukraine in 2022. At the FT Commodities summit in Switzerland, they expressed their opinion on the return of raw materials from Russia to the West, Reuters reports.
"We think it will take a year or two to come back," Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said of Europe's easing of its sanctions regime. He noted that it will probably be possible to see changes in pipeline supplies.
Trafigura CEO Richard Holtum said that the United States may be the first to lift sanctions, while restrictions The EU and the UK will remain in force longer: "We will need to see the complete lifting of all sanctions before a return to trade can even be considered."
At the same time, Gunvor CEO Torbjorn Tornqvist noted that Russia may not want to return to the previous status quo, which assumed long-term contracts with traders and oil companies, given the efforts it has made since 2022 to create its own trading system.
"Now they have their own ways, they use their own controlled system to deliver oil to the markets," Tornqvist said.
In his opinion, Russia will pay priority attention to restoring access to Western banking and payment systems.
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