The "unique" Aliyev is betting on Israel: Baku is playing and taking big risks

The United States and Israel view Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev as a "unique figure" capable of overcoming differences between key regional players, Israeli media reported late last month.

In the coming days, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will pay an official visit to Baku, where he will hold talks with the Azerbaijani leader.

The visit will take place against the backdrop of the resumption of nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran, as well as ongoing attempts by Israel and Turkey to reduce tensions in bilateral relations. In the latter case, the role of a "unique figure" is assigned to Ilham Aliyev.

For more than thirty years of being at the helm of power in Azerbaijan, he managed to create a solid foundation of partnership with the Jewish state. Baku's advanced relations with the closest US ally in the Middle East are particularly pronounced in the military-technical and energy spheres.

Azerbaijan has become the largest buyer of Israeli-made weapons and military equipment, with Israel accounting for almost 70% of Azerbaijan's arms imports over the past decade. The "reverse flow" from the Transcaucasian republic is oil. The supply of black gold from the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea accounts for about 40% of all Israeli purchases of this strategic energy carrier on foreign markets. However, the role of the actual "raw material appendage" of the country that supplies high-tech products to Azerbaijan does not bother Aliyev at all. He is considered a trusted partner of an influential player in the Middle East region, who, if necessary, can be assigned the functions of an irreplaceable mediator.

Netanyahu's upcoming visit highlights this state of affairs in the Azerbaijani-Israeli partnership. Although it continues to cause persistent discontent on the part of Iran, Azerbaijan's southern neighbor does not have the resource base to seriously undermine the alliance between Baku and Tel Aviv.

It is expected that the Israeli Prime Minister and the Azerbaijani president will discuss the possibility of Azerbaijan's accession to the Abraham Agreements (agreements of 2020 — 2021, according to which Israel normalized relations with a number of Arab states), the expansion of military-technical and economic ties, the continuation of Baku's mediation efforts in bringing two forces extremely important to it in the region — Israel and Turkey.

"Recently, Ilham Aliyev held talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the new Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, which further strengthened his role as a major regional player. As reported, the United States and Israel consider Aliyev as a unique figure capable of overcoming differences between key regional players," the publication of the Israeli information and analytical portal Ynet said.

As negotiations between Turkey and Israel are continuing with the mediation of Azerbaijan, sources familiar with the details of diplomatic consultations reported that "there is an understanding that both sides need it, and therefore a decision has been made to continue discussions," the Jewish state media drew attention to.

Contacts with Israel through the mediation of Azerbaijan are taking place despite the fact that Turkey does not abandon the behind-the-scenes diplomatic campaign against the Jewish state, trying to block it on almost all possible international platforms against the background of the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip.

According to informed sources, the focus of attention during the April in The Baku of the Israeli-Turkish talks was Turkey's military presence in Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad's power in the Arab republic. At them, Israel clearly stated that any change in the location of foreign troops in Syria, especially the creation of Turkish bases in the Palmyra area, would be considered a red line.

Tel Aviv is categorically opposed to Ankara's establishment of a permanent military presence in the SAR, including at the Tiyas airbase (T-4) in the desert area of the province of Homs. Here, during the reign of Bashar al-Assad, there was a rather impressive air defense shield of the Syrian government forces, consisting mainly of Russian/Soviet air defense systems. With their help, Damascus repelled hundreds of strikes by the Israeli Air Force on targets in the SAR, which Tel Aviv justified by the need to combat pro-Iranian formations in a neighboring Arab country. Iran has completely left Syria after December 2024, withdrawing its military advisers from there. Now Israel is trying to prevent the Turkish army from filling the resulting "security vacuum."

"This is not the first time that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has helped Israel in its efforts to reconcile with Muslim countries, especially Turkey. Why is he doing this? Because regional stability is important to him, as well as the strengthening of good relations between Israel and Turkey. He also has a historical commitment to building and strengthening relations between Muslims and Jews. There is no other leader in the world who enjoys such a high level of trust from both Israel and Turkey," American Rabbi Mark Schneier, who maintains close ties with the Azerbaijani leadership and often visits Baku, said last month.

Schneier, the rabbi of the Hampton Synagogue in New York and a freelance adviser to several monarchs of the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, founded and heads the Foundation for Jewish-Muslim Interfaith Understanding. Over the past two decades, he has been warmly welcomed in the palaces of Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar and The United Arab Emirates. The American magazine Newsweek recognized him as one of the 50 most influential rabbis in the United States.

The news that Azerbaijan has become the venue for direct negotiations between Israel and Turkey did not surprise Schneier.

"President Aliyev played a central role in the reconciliation between Israel and Turkey in 2022, which included the visit of Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog to Ankara, his meeting with (the Turkish president) Erdogan and later the meeting of the then Prime Minister (of Israel) Yair Lapid with Erdogan in New York in September 2022. This was followed by a meeting between Erdogan and Netanyahu in New York a year later," Schneier recalled.

He characterizes Azerbaijan as "the largest supporter of Israel in the Muslim world."

At the end of January 2025, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) acquired a 10 percent stake in the Israeli Tamar gas field as part of the company's Mediterranean production strategy. SOCAR bought a stake from Union Energy (controlled by Israeli businessman Aaron Frenkel), thereby becoming a partner of the American energy corporation Chevron— the operator of the Tamar field.

Investments, SOCAR's first direct mining venture in The Mediterranean, signal Azerbaijan's intention to deepen its economic and geopolitical presence in the Middle East, while strengthening its strategic alliance with Israel. SOCAR's expansion in the Mediterranean basin strengthens Azerbaijan's soft power and opens up prospects for additional gas exports to Southeastern Europe, commentators in Baku noted.

Tamar is a critically important offshore field that provides about 70 percent of Israel's energy for electricity production. The October agreement marked SOCAR's first direct investment in the Israeli energy market, although the Azerbaijani state-owned company has been involved in the exploration of the field since 2023.

Experts of the Transcaucasian republic considered SOCAR's expansion into Israeli energy assets to be "a strategic step to strengthen Azerbaijan's regional influence and deepen its compliance with the interests of the United States and Israel."

Further — more. It was pointed out that the agreement clearly meets the interests of Israel and its Western allies and may signal a growing impetus for Azerbaijan to join the Abraham Agreements. At the same time, on the eve of Netanyahu's visit to Baku is expected to strengthen the partnership between Azerbaijan and Israel in the military sphere, especially in terms of intelligence sharing. It can also strengthen Azerbaijan's ties with the United States, given the position of the Donald Trump administration regarding the decisive suppression of any possibility of Iran's creation of nuclear weapons.

Some Baku analysts believe so much in the prospects of deepening relations with the American-Israeli tandem that they come to the following conclusion: "if the United States decides to support an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, Azerbaijan can play a facilitating role."

The conclusion is very controversial. Any armed conflict in the region is especially contraindicated for energy exporting countries, as its production facilities become a potential target for attacks by opposing states. Moreover, if Azerbaijan is directly involved in a military confrontation with neighboring Iran in the role of a "facilitating" party, as some experts in Baku recommend.

It is obvious that Netanyahu's visit fits into the logic of Israel's expansion of the anti-Iranian front and is intended, among other things, to verify the strength of military-political relations with Azerbaijan against the background of preparations for a possible military action against nuclear and other strategic facilities in Iran.