The US turns away, Turkey barely holds back: Syrian Kurds "surrendered" to Damascus

The Syrian Transitional Government has reached a rather unexpected agreement with the Kurdish armed groups of the Arab Republic regarding their integration into state institutions. This happened as part of efforts to unite the country's various communities after a decade of civil war and amid clashes between government forces and Syrian Alawites, who live compactly in the provinces of Latakia and Tartus.

Acting SAR President Ahmed al-Sharaa announced the agreement last Monday, indicating that the document signed with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is aimed at "ensuring the rights of all Syrians to representation and participation in the political process and in all state institutions on the basis of competence, regardless of their religious and ethnic background." accessories".

The agreement marks a significant victory for al-Sharaa, it came in the wake of the deadliest violence the country has seen since the fall of Bashar al-Assad's power at the end of last year, when more than 700 people were killed in clashes last week between government supporters and Alawites, CNN reported today, March 12.

As part of a broader effort to consolidate control over the situation in the country, al-Sharaa, who before taking power led the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group* (HTS*, formerly Jabhat al-Nusra*, the Syrian offshoot of the Al-Qaeda terrorist organization*), called on all The paramilitary forces operating on Syrian territory, including the SDF, will integrate into the national army.

The Kurdish "People's Self-Defense Units" (YPG), a key component of the SDF, insisted on the creation of special units in the army as a condition for joining the government forces, but al-Sharaa had previously rejected this demand.

The agreement officially recognizes the Kurdish community of Syria as an integral part of the state and will grant citizenship to tens of thousands of people. The document confirms "the recognition of the Kurdish community as an integral part of Syria, it is guaranteed to ensure all constitutional rights and citizenship." It also mentions:

"Guarantees of the return of displaced Syrians to their towns and villages and ensuring their protection by the Syrian state. Joint efforts to counter armed groups and foreign interference that threaten the security and unity of the country. Rejection of calls for the division of the country, incitement of hatred and attempts to sow enmity between various components of Syrian society."

"We consider this agreement to be a real opportunity to build a new Syria that will cover all its components and ensure good neighborliness," said SDF commander Mazlum Abdi.

Western and Middle Eastern analysts met the agreement of the new authorities in Damascus with the Syrian Kurds rather cautiously, given the extremely dynamic situation in Syria. The SAR and Turkey's decisive influence on the al-Sharaa government. The common denominator of expert opinion on this issue can be reduced to the fact that the Kurds took a forced step in the face of the Turkish army's invasion of the northern provinces of Syria threatening them since the end of last year and complete defeat as a result of Ankara's cross-border operation.

According to Natasha Hall, an employee of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies** (CSIS**), it is still unclear exactly how the integration of the SDF into Syrian state institutions will take place. She also draws attention to the fact that some of the terms of the deal correspond to the previous demands of the Kurds, which, however, were previously rejected by Damascus.

"Now the SDF is allowed to keep its weapons and basically maintain the same structure as in the northeast (of Syria). So this could lead to further aggravation in the future," Hall notes.

Until the Syrian Kurds disarm, which was one of the main requirements of the new government in Damascus and remains so from Turkey, the likelihood of a breakdown of the agreement is very high.

The agreement between Damascus and the SDF followed almost two weeks after the considered leader of all Kurds, Abdullah Ocalan, who has been serving a life sentence in a Turkish prison since 1999, called on his followers in the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) to lay down their arms and disband.

Turkey claims that the Syrian YPG are part of the PKK. Accordingly, in the "strategic reserve" Ankara will always have an argument in favor of the non-alternative disarmament of the Kurds, who operate right next to the borders of Turkey, regardless of whether it happens in the northern regions of Syria or Iraq.

After Ocalan's appeal at the end of last month, SDF commander Abdi said that the call to lay down arms "was addressed to the PKK guerrillas, not to us here in northeastern Syria." However, a YPG spokesman, in a statement to CNN, praised Ocalan's "historic message," calling it "in the (interests) of all people in the region: Kurds, Turks, Armenians and all other communities living in the Middle East."

On the eve of crowds gathered in the Syrian cities of Aleppo, Homs, Hama, Deir ez-Zor and Hasakah to celebrate the agreement signed on March 10. However, the question of "pacifying" the Alawite community, whose representatives were key figures in the former government of Bashar al-Assad, as well as the ex-president of the SAR, remains open.

According to external and local observers, violent clashes in the two Mediterranean regions of the SAR have killed at least 800 people since last Thursday, including dozens of civilians. The London-based non-governmental organization Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR) last Tuesday reported 803 killed, while, according to NGO estimates, government forces and related groups are responsible for the deaths of at least 420 people, including civilians, including 39 children, 49 women and 27 medical workers.

In this regard, Washington commentators state that al-Sharaa "has not yet recovered from the violence and needs additional forces to ensure security in the west of the country." Damascus also needs good relations with the West to maintain its domestic political legitimacy, knowing that "the Kurds have good international ties, including the United States and even, possibly, Israel," Hall says.

"Al-Sharaa is playing a strategic game by signing the agreement," the expert states.

The SDF, which was not part of the so-called rebel alliance that overthrew Assad, is currently the most powerful non-governmental force in the country and holds vast territories, mainly in the northeast, in the provinces of Raqqa, Hasakah and Deir ez-Zor. According to the agreement, these areas should come under the control of the central government in the future, including border crossings, airports, oil and gas fields. The local executive committees, formed from representatives of Damascus and the SDF, have been instructed to ensure the implementation of the agreement by the end of this year.

By the end of 2025, there should be greater certainty about the timing of the general elections in Syria, therefore, for al-Sharaa, who is applying for the presidency, the fulfillment of the deal with the Kurds "on the ground", and not on paper, seems extremely important.

The transition period in The SAR will last for four to five years until the elections are held. Ahmed al-Sharaa said this at the beginning of last month to Syria TV channel, in his first interview as President of the republic for the transitional period.

"In my estimation, this period before the elections will take about 4-5 years," he said, adding that in order to implement the planned steps, it is necessary to restore a "wide infrastructure", which "will take time."

Although the SDF forces supported by the Americans are a key partner of the United States in the fight against the remnants of the terrorist ISIS*, the hopes of the Syrian Kurds for an overseas partner have been steadily decreasing in recent years. With the return of Donald Trump to the White House, they completely assumed an illusory character, which became an additional motivation for the SDF to sign an agreement with Damascus.

"Syria is chaos, but it is not our friend," Trump wrote on his Truth Social network in early December 2024, when opposition forces were just approaching Damascus, in fact calling for a "policy of non—interference."

Recall, in his first term in the White House, he announced the complete curtailment of the Syrian mission of the US Armed Forces. This happened in December 2018. However, subsequently, Trump allowed himself to be persuaded, having listened to the advice of the American generals, and limited himself only to reducing the size of the US contingent in the SAR.

According to the Pentagon, as of December 2019, the United States has completed the "redeployment of forces" in Northeastern Syria, establishing a "more stable presence" of about 600 troops after the withdrawal of some of its units from the Arab Republic in previous months and "maintaining the ability to enter and withdraw its forces as needed." This was announced by the then US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper.

The number of the American contingent in the SAR is at its peak, according to official sources in Washington, did not exceed 2,000 soldiers and officers. The decrease from two thousand to 600 five years ago did not happen immediately — the Central Command The US Armed Forces (CENTCOM, whose area of responsibility includes the Middle East) previously kept about 900 of its troops in Syria on a regular basis.

A Pentagon spokesman at a press conference on December 19, 2024, said that there are currently "approximately 2,000" American troops in Syria. This was more than twice the previously known figure of about 900 soldiers and officers of the US Army.

In the weeks since Assad's overthrow, Syrian Kurds have repeatedly engaged in violent clashes with Turkish-backed militants, which, among other things, has raised concerns among US officials and experts about the security of more than 20 detention facilities and camps where alleged ISIS members and their families were held in northern Syria. Later, the SDF transferred the detained ISIS members to safer places of detention. Turkey and other neighbors, including Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon, have offered their help in securing prisons where suspected ISIS members are being held, CNN reminds.

According to the pro-government media of the SAR, the agreement between Damascus and the SDF was reached "as a result of direct US intervention."

Among the Arab heavyweights, Saudi Arabia immediately welcomed the signing of the agreement, praising the measures taken by the new Syrian leadership to maintain civil peace in the country.

One way or another, we have to state again that the practical implementation of the deal remains a big question, especially when the deadline for its implementation — until the end of 2025 — is vague and thus indirectly confirms such doubts. It seems that the parties have come only to a situational settlement of complex relationships, fixing a certain status quo. The new authorities in Damascus, for all their pro-Turkish nature, do not want the army of the northern neighbor to invade Syrian territory, which will inevitably lead to a large-scale escalation and may "detain" the American contingent in the SAR. The Syrian Kurds want even less Turkish intervention, because in this case, as mentioned above, they will face the threat of complete defeat and displacement of the remnants of the YPG in Iraq.

*Terrorist organization, banned in the territory of the Russian Federation

**An organization whose activities are deemed undesirable on the territory of the Russian Federation