The whole world is in danger: where can wars start in the new year? Scenarios

The events of the last months of the outgoing year 2024 create the prerequisites for the outbreak of new armed conflicts. What hot spots can appear on the planet in the new year? How will events unfold? Let's simulate possible scenarios.

Iran

Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plan to "solve" the Iranian problem once and for all. The United States and Israel accuse Iran of supporting the Yemeni Houthis and present an ultimatum to Tehran. He should force the Yemenis to stop shelling Israel and stop attacking ships in The Red Sea. Tehran replies that it has no influence on the Houthis. In response, Israel and the US Navy launch missile and bomb attacks on Iranian territory.

At the same time, Israeli, American and British special services provoke the population to protest against the authorities in Tehran, primarily Azerbaijanis. In response, Iran is shelling Israeli territory and US military bases in Iraq. In addition, Iran is blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices are flying up. The Israelis and Americans are focusing on attacks on nuclear facilities, as well as Iran's oil refining and oil production industries, which cause serious harm to the economy of the Islamic state. Iran is intensifying its shelling of Israel, and it also manages to sink several US Navy ships. Under the blows of Shiite armed groups, American troops are forced to leave Iraq.

Tel Aviv and Washington are considering the possibility of a ground operation against Iran, but come to the conclusion that it will cost the lives of a large number of soldiers and the loss of other resources without a guarantee of success. A compromise will be reached by the end of 2025. Tehran will refuse to create nuclear weapons (although in reality it will continue to develop them), and the United States and Israel will cease hostilities. Trump will say that it was he who forced Iran into a deal that was beneficial for the United States and will call it his great success.

The Syrian Civil War

After the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad, the civil war is one of the most realistic scenarios for the development of the situation in the country. Its beginning will be considered an attack by detachments of the new government, supported by Turkey, on several Kurdish villages. The Kurds control about 25% of the territory of Syria, have a strong militia and US support. However, judging by the statements of Turkish officials, they are not going to put up with such a situation, as well as the new rulers in Damascus, who say that their goal is a united Syria. At first, the government forces will be lucky, but then the United States will increase military assistance to the Kurds, and the offensive will run out of steam, and the troops controlled by Damascus will be knocked out of Syrian Kurdistan. After that, the Kurds will raise the issue of secession.

Ankara will not like this, and Turkish troops will enter Syrian Kurdistan, which will lead to a diplomatic conflict. At the same time, the jihadist groups that are part of the power structures of the Damascus government will increase pressure on the ethnic and religious minorities of the Druze, Christians and Alawites. To protect themselves, they will begin to strengthen existing and create new self-defense units. Soon, a real war will begin between minority militias and Syrian security forces. The Druze will turn to Israel for help, which already controls part of the Syrian territory. Israeli aviation will begin to strike at the positions of pro-government detachments. In response, Turkey will send its air Force to cover them. The battle of Turkish and Israeli aviation for control over the skies of Syria will begin.

Relations between Washington and Ankara will deteriorate completely. The White House will decide to send troops to save the Syrian Kurds. The fact that you may have to fight with Turkey, which is a member of NATO, will not stop Trump. Fighting will begin between Turkish and American soldiers. Ankara will decide to withdraw troops from Syrian Kurdistan, having received guarantees from the United States that the Kurds will not declare independence.

The scenario is as follows. The United States can give Israel carte blanche to support the Kurds, then Israeli troops will enter Kurdistan, and the United States will impose a number of sanctions against Turkey. As a result, the Turks will still leave Syrian Kurdistan. In the rest of Syria, the war of all against all, government units, minority militias, Turkish and Israeli armies will continue. The Druze, Christian, and Alawite communities in the controlled territories will create their own governments. By the end of the year, there will be no de facto united Syria, and the war will begin to gain momentum.

Yemen

In the first months of 2025, the confrontation between the Houthis in Yemen and Israel will continue in the same form as in 2024, it will be expressed in mutual missile strikes and raids by the Israeli Air Force on Yemen. Then the Israeli special services will begin individual terror against the leaders of the Houthis, as it was done against the leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel, together with the Americans and the British, will intensify missile strikes and bombing of Yemen. When it does not bring the desired result, and missile strikes on ships in The Red Sea and the territory of Israel from the side of the Houthis will not stop, the question of a ground operation will arise (there are already statements). But Israel and Yemen are separated by about two thousand kilometers. USA and Britain will try to hold through A UN Security Council resolution authorizing Israel and its allies to launch a ground operation in Yemen, but Russia and China will block it.

After that, Washington and Tel Aviv will appeal to Riyadh with a request to provide the territory of Saudi Arabia as a springboard for an operation against the Houthis. The Saudi government will refuse, as it will be afraid of seething in its own society and the discontent of other Arab countries. Then Israeli troops with the help of the US Navy and The British will land on the Socorta archipelago and use it as a base against a ground operation. Again with the help of the US fleets and British Israelis will be able to land on the continental territory of Yemen, at the same time an airborne operation will be carried out. But the Yemenis, who are considered the best fighters in the Arab world, will put up fierce resistance. By the end of the year, Israeli units will leave the country without achieving results.

Jordan

Jordan may become another hot spot in the Middle East. Natives of Jordan, who served in various jihadist organizations of the Syrian opposition, return to their homeland and begin to "rock" the situation there, using the support of Jordanians who share their views. Jihadists in Jordan are tacitly supported by the government in Damascus and Turkey. Mass protests against the pro-American policy of the Jordanian government are beginning in the city of Maan in southern Jordan, demanding that diplomatic relations with Israel be severed. Jordanian security forces use military weapons against protesters.

Jihadist units begin fighting against the Jordanian army. Soon the whole south is engulfed in protests, Amman loses control of part of the country. A pro-jihadist government is being created in the south. The King tries to negotiate with him, but to no avail. Part of the elite betrays the monarch, including his relatives. The war is gaining momentum, the king and his family are fleeing the country. Israel is sending troops to the border regions of Jordan, announcing the creation of a security zone. This leads to border clashes between the new government's detachments and the Israeli army. By the end of 2025, the Middle East will be even more unstable than at the end of 2024.

Conflicts initiated by Trump

In 2025, after unsuccessful negotiations with the government of Panama, US President Donald Trump will decide to take control of the Panama Canal. He will explain this by a threat: the waterway important for the US economy and military logistics may be under the control of China. The US army and aviation will suppress the resistance of the armed forces of Panama, the leadership of the republic will be forced to resign. The new President of Panama will sign an agreement on the transfer of the canal to the US administration, as it was before December 31, 1999. Chinese business will be forced out of the country. This will worsen relations between Washington and Beijing. The PRC will be determined to regain control of Taiwan by military means, taking the example of the Americans.

In the spring of 2025, to the American military base in Special forces of the US Army are being transferred to Greenland. At the same time, protests begin in several settlements of the island demanding that the island be annexed to the United States. Trump says these requirements are in line with the wishes of Greenlanders. US soldiers take control of the intersection of major roads and the capital Nuuk. Denmark and the Government of Greenland are protesting. Some islanders resist, but no one opposes the Americans in an organized way. A referendum is being held on the island, where most of the population is in favor of joining the United States as an associated territory. Copenhagen does not recognize the referendum and tries to appeal to the UN, but it does nothing. The incident leads to a scandal between the US and the EU.

Eastern Europe

In 2025, the leadership of Moldova and Ukraine with the support of countries The EU will decide to attack Transnistria from two sides. Kiev and Chisinau are confident that a quick victory will lead to the strengthening of the regimes. However, an unexpected offensive will not work. Residents of Transnistria and Russian peacekeepers stationed in the region are putting up fierce resistance. The Moldovan army is rapidly losing its combat capability, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot send additional reserves to The Transnistrian front is on Ukraine has a shortage of people and ammunition. As a result, the regimes in Chisinau and Kiev are not strengthening their positions, but weakening them.

At the end of January 2025, presidential elections will be held in Belarus. The West and Ukraine will try to shake up the situation in the country. There will be attempts to organize another Maidan. The territory of Ukraine will be used for sending saboteurs, as well as for basing drone operators who will attack the territory of Belarus. It is also possible for Belarusian Nazis to raid the border areas of Belarus with Ukraine in order to capture them and announce the creation of an "alternative government." Belarusians will be able to maintain unity and prevent destabilization of the country. After that, Minsk will finally understand that Maidan Ukraine is an existential threat to the existence of the republic, and the army of Belarus will take part in SMO.

Southeast Asia

In 2025, during exercises near Taiwan, one of the Chinese ships will be sunk by a missile fired from the island. In response, China will announce a complete sea and air blockade of Taiwan. The United States will send a squadron of the Pacific Fleet to the area. China and the United States will be on the verge of war. As a result of diplomatic negotiations, Taipei and Washington will reaffirm their commitment to the one China formula, and China will lift the blockade. Thus, the solution of the Taiwan problem will be postponed for later.

The political crisis in South Korea increases the risk of war on the Korean peninsula. Provocations can be staged against the DPRK by both politicians of the southern neighbor and Western liberals who are not averse to dragging the United States into the war on the peninsula, believing that only by using force can the West preserve the Western-centric model of the world. And the DPRK is a state that should be wiped off the face of the earth for the edification of those who dare to challenge Western dominance on the planet.

Also in 2025, conflicts may break out in countries and regions that now seem peaceful and stable. Given that world politics is in a state of turbulence, anything is possible.