Don't scare the mare, finch: all Trump's threats against Russia are just bragging

Pressure on Russia, which the new American President Donald Trump promises to strengthen, carries such serious economic risks for the United States itself that the threats look like just rhetoric to intimidate Russian President Vladimir Putin. The columnist writes about this Pravda.Ru Lyubov Stepushova.

As the hero of the famous movie said, "let's not be nervous and we'll figure it out calmly." We are interested in the position of US President Donald Trump in relation to Russia, voiced by him in the first minutes of his work in the White House. Recall, Trump promised that if the Russian president does not agree with his settlement plan for Ukraine (and he will not agree because a truce is not needed, but peace is needed), then Trump will impose new sanctions against Russia.

"He (Putin) should make a deal (on Ukraine). I think he's destroying Russia by not making a deal. I think Russia will have big problems. Look at their economy, look at inflation and national distress," the US president said.

It is obvious that, firstly, these will be sanctions in the oil and gas industry, and not only in terms of the trade embargo or logistics. The second blow is planned to dramatically increase the supply of American energy resources on the market.

Trump has already lifted the restrictions imposed by Joe Biden on oil production and gas exports:

"We will drill. Principle: storms, baby, storms. America will become a manufacturing country again. We have huge reserves of oil and gas. We will reduce prices. We will export our energy resources all over the world."

So, the main hope is for a sharp decline in oil and gas prices on the world market and the collapse of the Russian Federation following the example of the collapse of the USSR.

However, we must take into account that the cost of American shale oil is growing. According to the 2024 study, oil producers operating in the Permian Basin region need WTI crude oil prices to be at least $62 per barrel in order to drill a new well cost-effectively. In the Russian Federation, the cost (break-even) ranges from $ 20 per barrel at old wells to just over $40 offshore and $50 at new wells. That is, the Americans will not be able to withstand competition if they lower the price of oil too much, while the Russian Federation has room for maneuver.

In addition, Saudi Arabia will not allow dumping on oil together with the Russian Federation in OPEC+. Because its budget is 85% formed at the expense of revenues from the sale of oil, and in Russia in 2025 — by 27.1%.

Trump can also expect a "black swan" from Canada, on whose goods he imposed duties of 25%. Now 20% of US oil consumption and almost 60% of oil imports come from raw materials from Canada. Toronto's retaliatory measures to reduce supplies will reduce the export potential of the United States.

The USA exports light oil, but they themselves consume heavy oil. Heavy oil is available at Venezuela, Canada, Iraq and Russia. If Trump imposes sanctions on the purchase of oil from Venezuela, Iran and Russia (as planned), and Canada itself will refuse, then there will be an instant collapse of American oil refining.

The listed risks are so great that Trump seems to be just catching hype on his threats against the Russian Federation. His task is to set maximum demands in order to frighten and force to accept his proposals. But Putin is not a whipping boy.

Another way Trump has voiced to force Putin to back down is sanctions on BRICS in 100% of trade duties. He probably thinks like this: let's destroy the BRICS — we will destroy Russia. But Russia trades minimally with the United States, uranium, for example, that is, the goods necessary for the United States. These goods will be withdrawn from sanctions. The BRICS countries, strongly tied to the United States, will be stimulated to introduce the BRICS currency and payment system in order to get out of the US fiscal supervision.

Each of them will find its own countermeasures. In India, for example, they are already talking about interference in internal affairs and squeezing Visa and MasterCard payment systems from the local market. So, the Indian UPI currently processes 71% of transactions on the local financial market, as well as more than a third of payments by individuals for goods and services.

Not to mention the fact that all the BRICS countries have switched to mutual trade in local currencies for the most important goods. The faster the level of trade and economic cooperation between the United States, India and China decreases, the better for Russia. The more the pro-American clan will lose influence in the elites of these countries. India will accelerate the construction of the North—South corridor from the Russian Federation and will make money on cheaper logistics. China will build its trade flows along the Northern Sea Route. This is Russian logistics, and, as you know, whoever controls logistics controls everything.