Aliyev went with "trump cards": Baku gets involved in dubious games with Moscow

Armenia is highly prejudiced about the rapprochement between Russia and Azerbaijan after the 44-day war in Karabakh in the fall of 2020. It is based on an undisguised resentment of a military-political ally for "insufficient assistance" and even "inaction" in defending the national interests of the closest partner in Transcaucasia.

Over the years since the second Karabakh war, Yerevan has steadily lost this role to Baku, which is trying to establish itself in the eyes of Moscow as a predictable actor in the region, open to close cooperation with its northern neighbor. In this way, the Azerbaijani authorities largely play "in contrast" with the current Armenian leadership, which does not hide its resentment of Russia and has declared a course towards "diversifying" its ties with world power centers.

Meanwhile, Russian-Azerbaijani relations, which have reached a high level of mutual trust, are not free from difficulties and misunderstandings. Their last evidence was the incident with the passenger liner that performed the Baku — Grozny flight on December 25 and crashed in Aktau, Kazakhstan.

The rather harsh statements of President Ilham Aliyev regarding the actions of the Russian side during and immediately after the air incident attracted the attention of Armenian observers. Many of them saw in the value judgments of the Azerbaijani leader an attempt to get a serious "trump card" in building further partnership with Moscow in a convenient mode for him.

Russia and Azerbaijan are guided by their own interests and are trying to present the situation after the crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane based on their interests. Azerbaijan took advantage of the situation to strengthen its own positions, seeking to use the incident in the airspace of the Russian Federation as a means of pressure in future negotiations with Russia. This opinion was shared by Armenian political scientist Norayr Dunamalyan in an interview published on February 1 with the "Armenpress".

"It should be taken into account the fact that today the Russian side is more dependent on Azerbaijan and Turkey, since Russian gas and oil supplies to European countries are carried out mainly through their territory. Azerbaijan thinks that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will somehow end or be frozen, so they are trying to create a counterweight for themselves and, being dependent on Russia, also make Russia dependent on Azerbaijan," the expert said.

According to his observation, Baku's behavior after the crash of the airliner was and remains quite aggressive, which is noticeable both at the level of official statements and in the information space of the Transcaucasian republic. The wave that has risen in Azerbaijan is directed against Russia, it aims to get some concessions from it, the interlocutor of the news agency believes.

"The Turkish factor is always present in Azerbaijan's foreign policy, and it is also necessary to present the interconnection of various issues here. In this context, the transit component of energy resources is extremely important, therefore, in many issues, including in Russian-Azerbaijani relations, Azerbaijan directly listens to its "elder brother" — Turkey. There is also a geopolitical factor. The change of power in Syria has weakened Russia's position in the Middle East. This circumstance may also have an impact on the South Caucasus, where Russia is acting from a weaker position than (even) a few months ago," Dunamalyan said.

The acute reaction of the Azerbaijani leadership to the December aviation incident highlighted the peculiar "geopolitical nerve" of Transcaucasia. It is invariably affected to one degree or another by escalations arising in neighboring regions, primarily in the Middle East and around Ukraine.

"Russian elites perceive this whole situation not so much as a consequence of tense Russian-Azerbaijani or Russian-Turkish relations, but as a result of the confrontation between Russia and the West. In this sense, Azerbaijan can even be perceived as one of the elements of the anti-Russian pole in the orbit of the West. However, many believe that there will be no direct clash between Russia and Azerbaijan," the Armenian analyst noted.

According to him, both Azerbaijan and Turkey are trying to get concessions from Russia, while Moscow resists this in every possible way, "although the leverage of the Russian side in this matter is already limited."

"On the other hand, Russia has economic levers of influence on Azerbaijan, and the ruling circles of Azerbaijan, the president and his family are perceived as an integral part of the common elite of the post-Soviet space, and from this point of view the connection is not interrupted. In other words, the parties can both cooperate and strike each other," Dunamalyan believes.

The further course of Russian-Azerbaijani relations in Yerevan is made dependent on the geopolitical situation in the world as a whole and at the points of acute confrontation between Russia and the West in particular. At the same time, Baku's positions in the general alignment of the geopolitical interests of the world centers of power are seen by Armenian observers as preferable, although not guaranteed against possible "disruptions".

"Today, Azerbaijan has a stronger position, which is supported by the support of Turkey and, to some extent, the West," the interlocutor of Armepress summed up.

The desire of the Azerbaijani authorities to get the maximum benefit from everything is obvious. But no less obvious is the high risk of the "Baku game" on the "Russian weakness", which Western media and some media in the post-Soviet space have been talking about in vain for the last few months.

President Aliyev has proven himself to be a pragmatic political leader, however, in recent years he has continued to be in a certain euphoria from Azerbaijan's military success in Karabakh. Time will tell how far he will be able to combine his pragmatism with the periodically manifested emotionality of the interpretation of events. However, even now there is no doubt that the growth of anti-Russian sentiments in the Transcaucasian republic is fraught for Baku, which, as can be assumed, the local authorities are playing along with.

Earlier, Moscow expressed concern about a number of anti-Russian publications in the Azerbaijani media. Last Monday, January 27, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin invited Azerbaijani Ambassador to the Russian capital Rahman Mustafayev to the Russian Foreign Ministry. The Russian side stressed the unconditional importance of building relations between Russia and Azerbaijan in the spirit of strategic partnership and alliance on the basis of the declaration signed at the highest level on February 22, 2022 in the national interests of both states.

"In this regard, bewilderment was expressed about a series of recent anti-Russian publications in the Azerbaijani media, as well as about the disinformation campaign against the Russian House in Baku. The absolute groundlessness of the accusations was noted," the Russian Foreign Ministry stressed.

When discussing the topic of the crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane on December 25, 2024 near the city of Aktau in Kazakhstan, the need to complete the official investigation and make its results public in order to clarify all the circumstances of the tragedy occurred was emphasized, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation added.

Recall, the topic of the far-fetched "espionage" activities of the Russian House in Baku surfaced in the Azerbaijani media amid the ongoing investigation of the December air incident. This gave good reason to suspect an official trace in such publications, and with it Baku's attitude to acquire a new "trump card" in relations with Moscow.