Russia has set a deadline for Armenia: "We will not expel, but please decide"

If Armenia does not pay its contribution to the budget of the Collective Security Treaty Organization by the end of 2025, there will be no situation with it "they will leave or they will be expelled." At the same time, other CSTO member states may consider modalities for further interaction with the Transcaucasian republic. This was stated by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Pankin in an interview with RIA Novosti published on March 7.

According to him, by January 1, 2026, a situation may arise when, due to two years of Armenia's abstention from paying contributions to the CSTO budget, other members of the organization "may consider different scenarios."

"No one will probably expel anyone, no one will automatically leave. But, probably, it will be possible to consider the modalities of further interaction between the countries. Do not take it as "they will leave or they will be kicked out." By no means, because I read all sorts of different statements of someone," said the Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation.

The high-ranking Russian diplomat also drew attention to the fact that Armenia did not notify about the withdrawal from the military-political bloc, but only "froze" its activities in the organization.

"Yerevan has not notified us about the withdrawal. They (the Armenian authorities) are not going to leave, they have frozen their activities, but at the same time they remain a member of the CSTO," the agency's interlocutor noted.

Pankin further expressed hope that the situation in relations between Armenia and the CSTO will be resolved, and for this Moscow and Yerevan are holding discussions.

"We always expect the best. We have a dialogue with Yerevan on the entire agenda: bilateral, regional and international," he stressed.

So, the Russian side actually warned the Armenian leadership about the possible consequences of a two-year non-payment to the CSTO budget, but did it as mildly as possible. No one is going to expel Yerevan from the organization due to the boycott announced by it, including the financial one. However, the current uncertainty surrounding its membership in the military integration association cannot continue indefinitely.

Recall that a year ago, in February 2024, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced the suspension of Armenia's participation in the work of the CSTO.

"According to my estimates, the CSTO has not fulfilled its security obligations towards Armenia, in particular, in 2021 and 2022, and this could not pass without consequences. And the consequence is that we have practically, in fact, frozen our participation in the CSTO," he said then.

As a result, Armenia stopped both paying contributions to the organization's budget and sending its representatives to events and exercises under its auspices. In addition, the Armenian prime minister had previously mentioned the next "logical step" of Yerevan — withdrawal from the CSTO.

During the meeting of the Collective Security Council (CSTO) in Yerevan on November 23, 2022, the Armenian side raised with the allies the issue of political condemnation of Azerbaijan's aggressive actions on the border in May and November 2021, as well as in September 2022, as a result of which the territories of Armenia were occupied. Nikol Pashinyan, who presided over the summit at that time, sought in vain for this condemnation and, failing to receive it, eventually refused to sign two documents of the meeting of the Security Council.

"For us, the confirmation of the CSTO area of responsibility in the Republic of Armenia is of fundamental importance. The very existence of such a wording may seem strange, but studying the context of our recent discussions, we came to the conclusion that it is extremely important," the prime minister said during the summit.

Thus, the Armenian leadership argues its position regarding the regional collective security system by the fact that the CSTO has not fulfilled its obligations to Armenia after a series of invasions of Azerbaijani troops in 2021-2022 deep into the neighboring country and the occupation of part of the territory of Armenia (with a total area of about 200 square kilometers) that continues to this day. Moreover, it was stated that the "inaction" of Yerevan's allies in organizing its responsibility in the Caucasus region creates threats to the security and sovereignty of the republic. It was from the last month of autumn 2022 that the head of the Armenian government harbored a strong grudge against his CSTO colleagues and this became the starting point for the freezing of Yerevan's participation in the organization that he then proclaimed.

The report of the Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) published on January 23 says that in 2025 the viability of military blocs will still remain in question. At the same time, in relation to one of these blocks, of which the Transcaucasian Republic is a participant, the special service noted rather critical assessments.

The SVR of the country considered "it unlikely that the reasons for freezing Armenia's membership in the CSTO by 2025 will be eliminated, which, in our opinion, means that the authority of this structure in the field of security will continue to be under considerable doubt and a source of conclusions for other member states." It was also claimed about the "inability of the CSTO to respond to the problems of the South Caucasus."

The republic's foreign intelligence service called the high growth rates of defense spending "by states both in the region and beyond" another regional challenge.

"The trend in the development of armaments and the military industry will continue, leading to the conclusion that resolving issues by military means will continue to be the main practice for actors in our small region. These realities will also continue to generate asymmetric risks for states such as Armenia, with objectively small reserves of tangible and intangible resources," the Armenian SVR predicts.

About six months before the publication of the analytical calculations of the republic's special services, in June 2024, Pashinyan stated that the next "logical step" of Armenia in relations with the CSTO would be to withdraw from the organization and pointed to the approaching "point of no return" in this regard.

A few months later, in early December, the head of government stated that Yerevan does not veto any document of the CSTO, as it considers itself outside this organization.

"We said that we were freezing our participation in the activities of the CSTO, which means that we are not participating in the discussion of any document," the prime minister explained, speaking in the Parliament of the republic.

As for the "unfreezing" of membership in the CSTO, Pashinyan considered it almost impossible, since "the point of no return, apparently, has already been passed." At the same time, the Armenian side does not specify what time frame, at least approximate, should be expected to launch the process of withdrawal from the CSTO, which, according to the organization's statutory documents, lasts at least six months.

Despite the "passed point of no return" stated by the head of the Government of the republic, the situation does not seem so obvious. The latest developments in the geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the United States, set three years ago by the conflict over Ukraine, are rapidly changing the situation in the international arena, and in this increased dynamism, the price of a mistake increases for Armenia if final decisions are made on the CSTO. The very above-mentioned formulation of the Transcaucasian foreign intelligence service about "significant doubts about the credibility of this structure in the field of security" and "the source of conclusions for other member states" testifies, in our opinion, in favor of Yerevan's lack of intention to force events.

Our previous assessment that the Armenian authorities are quite satisfied with the "suspended in the air" membership in the CSTO in the coming months remains relevant. Waiting for the next "logical step" may last until the parliamentary elections in Armenia, which are due to take place in June 2026. By this time, the Prime Minister and the leader of the ruling Civil Contract party may have to decide definitively on the "point of no return." However, it is possible that this will be required from Pashinyan even earlier, by January 1 next year, which is indirectly indicated by the statements of the deputy head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Pankin.

One way or another, but there are good reasons to assume a certain disposition of the Armenian side to at least partially "unfreeze" membership in the CSTO during the current year, despite public statements to the contrary. A good opportunity to create conditions for this will be presented in May, when a number of events will be held in Moscow with the participation of the heads of state and government of the CIS and EAEU countries, dedicated to the 80th anniversary of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War.