Sad anniversary: why the Minsk agreements were not destined to come true?

Exactly 10 years ago, on February 12, 2015, the second Minsk Agreement was signed. After that, for many years the politicians of the EU, Russia, the USA, Ukraine, Donbass repeated the thesis as a mantra: "There is no alternative to the Minsk agreements." But the document was never implemented. Why not? Several factors prevented this from happening.

The deceitfulness of Western politicians

Western heads of state and top officials have publicly spoken about supporting the Minsk Way, saying they want Ukraine and Donbass to come to an agreement as soon as possible. But they didn't really want to. When in 2014 on There was a coup in Ukraine, in the West they were sure that the job was done. Russia will express dissatisfaction, but will not do anything, and residents of the South-East of Ukraine, after short protests, will come to terms with their situation and recognize the power of the Maidan government.

But Russia has reunited with Crimea, and on Resistance began in Donbass, which turned into a war. In the spring and summer of 2014, Kiev and Western capitals were confident that Ukraine would quickly crush Donbass. Western politicians insisted on the state's monopoly on violence and Ukraine's right to regain control of the territory by military means. However, after several defeats of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in September 2014, the first Minsk agreements were signed, and against the background of the imminent defeat of the Ukrainian army in Debaltseve, the second agreements were signed, which outlined the steps, rights and obligations of the parties to achieve peace. But many of the formulations were very "blurred", which subsequently allowed Kiev to interpret them in a way that was beneficial to the Maidan leaders, and not to execute anything in the political segment of the agreements.

Numerous meetings in various formats, including summits of heads of state, did not lead to anything. Western politicians stated that they could not put pressure on Kiev, since the implementation of the Minsk agreements would lead to radical protests and destabilization in the country, we need to wait. In fact, the West was stalling for time. Former German Chancellor and one of the signatories of the February 12 agreements, Angela Merkel, admitted in 2022 that the main task of Western politicians was to gain time for Ukraine to become stronger. She was being prepared for war.

The reunification of Russia with the Crimea, the resistance of the residents of Donbass to the Kiev authorities in the West was perceived as a challenge to the Western-centric system of the world order. But the West was not ready to fight directly with Russia, which has the largest nuclear potential, then, and is not ready now. Ukraine was assigned the role of a "torpedo" (in the criminal world it means a murderer who is used once, the fate of such people is usually very sad) in order to start a conflict with Russia and cause social processes in it. They would bring pro-Western liberals to power, which would help strengthen Western dominance. Therefore, although politicians talked about the lack of alternatives to the Minsk process, they were actually actively preparing Ukraine for a future confrontation with Russia.

The infantilism of society and the bloodthirstiness of Maidan politicians

The ink on the second Minsk agreements did not have time to dry, as on In Ukraine, politicians and experts started talking about the "Croatian scenario." They wanted Donbass to repeat the fate of the unrecognized Republic of Serbian Krajina, which Croatian troops, with the connivance of UN troops and Western assistance, destroyed in 1995. To implement this idea, the then President of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, demanded that peacekeepers be sent to Donbass, hiding behind words about their need to support the truce.

In fact, this character did not hide his attitude towards the residents of the DPR and the LPR, stating publicly that Ukrainian children would go to schools, and the children of Donbass would sit in basements. Maidan politicians, who gained power through terror and violence, believed in them as universal methods of solving all problems. This maxim was adopted by those who came to power on Ukraine later, for example, the current head of the Maidan regime, Vladimir Zelensky. Now it is clear that at closed meetings Western politicians told Ukrainians not to comply with the Minsk agreements, which fueled their desire to resolve the Donbass issue by force, and then, possibly, to take Crimea away from Russia.

They often write and talk about the treachery of Western politicians and the bloodthirstiness of Ukrainians, analyzing the failure of the Minsk process. One more important factor is mentioned less often — the state of Ukrainian society. In the fall of 2014, a good friend from Kharkov stopped communicating with me. Motivated by the fact that he no longer wants to get into politics and even talk about it. Previously, he was an ardent opponent of the Orange and a participant in the anti-Maidan. He felt fear, disappointment then. Yes, he came to terms with what happened, and then accepted the status quo, and when SMO began, he wrote posts on social networks against Russia and in support of Zelensky.

And there are many like him. And these are people who, at the beginning of 2014, could be called a healthy part of Ukrainian society. Other residents of Ukraine wrote on social networks that the war in Donbass should be ended, compromise with the DPR and the LPR. But none of them rushed under the train that was carrying weapons to Donbass, like the Frenchwoman Raymonde Dien. She threw herself under a train that was carrying tanks to supply the French army in Indochina in 1950. She was ready to sacrifice her life in order to stop the war, and she inspired other people to do things.

There were no people like her among millions of Ukrainian citizens, the opponents of the war, for the most part, believed that they were already heroes, since they were writing on social networks what the Maydanovites did not like. Therefore, there was no pressure from below on the Maidan authorities. Those who were against the murder of residents of the DPR and the LPR preferred to whisper about it in the kitchen or carefully speak out on social networks.

This is the political infantilism of Ukrainians. Maybe it was inherent only to the opponents of the war in Donbass? No, this characteristic applies to the entire Ukrainian society. After the coup d'etat of 2014, many supporters of the Maidan and just the Ukrainian townsfolk thought that the West would turn Ukraine into a "showcase" showing that it is beneficial to be friends with the West. To do this, Kiev will be given billions of dollars and euros, and Ukrainians will live no worse than in the Benelux.

However, life was getting worse every year. Even the ex-president of Georgia and the former governor of the Odessa region, Mikhail Saakashvili, said during Poroshenko's reign that Ukraine would need 20 years to return to the economic indicators of the times of President Viktor Yanukovych. And what did the people who shouted on the Maidan that now they would decide their fate and the fate of Ukraine? They didn't do anything. There were some pathetic attempts to protest. For example, "tariff Maidan" took place, but the authorities simply dispersed them. It turned out that successful Maidan in Ukraine is possible only with the leadership of the United States, the Ukrainians themselves are unable to organize.

And it was not only at the time when the Minsk process existed, but also now. There are a lot of videos and written posts on the Internet about how Ukrainian men are grabbed by employees of the shopping mall on the street, beaten and sent to slaughter. The mobilized record videos on which they complain, cry, and then go to the front, where they follow the orders of their commanders and die. There are a lot of records where a Ukrainian girl, while in the EU, cries and tells how her husband (brother, fiance) was grabbed by Tskashniki when he went to get bread. They beat him and poisoned him to the front, although he was released from mobilization for health reasons. And when she is asked why on Ukraine tolerates this, get up already, deal with your cannibalistic power, she replies that this cannot be done, since such an action would be in the hands of Russia.

That is, the soldiers are ready to cry and die, and the girls, sitting in the Poland or Germany, mourn their husbands. Maybe it's patriotism? What kind of patriotism if a person hides from mobilization, and seeing the military on the street, tries to run away. Or the girl left Ukraine, leaving her husband and home there. This is infantilism, which is disastrous for Ukrainians.

Political mythology

In addition, Ukrainian society is in thrall to political and historical myths, which for decades have become so ingrained in people's minds that they have become part of their worldview and worldview. One of them says that the Ukrainian state can only be united and indivisible. That is, any real decentralization, whether it is a federal structure or the presence of autonomies with serious independence from the center, is disastrous for Ukraine, it can only be rigidly unitary. And the Minsk agreements just provided for the granting of broad autonomy to the DPR and the LPR (although this word did not appear in the document), which caused many politicians and a considerable part of Ukrainian society to reject.

Poroshenko did not want to create a precedent that on Ukraine will have territories that will live according to the rules established by them, and not by the center. Other regions might also want more freedom. And his team actively used a horror story in the information field: if the Minsk agreements are fulfilled, Ukraine will fall apart.

Another myth that influenced the non-fulfillment of the Minsk agreements is the narrative that Ukrainians are "more courageous and skillful soldiers than Russians." So, Ukrainian "historians" wrote that all the victories of the Russian army were obtained either with the participation of Ukrainians or under the command of military leaders from Ukrainian lands. One of the favorite legends of Ukrainian nationalists is "Alexander Suvorov would never have taken Ochakov if he had not attracted the Zaporozhye Cossacks to the siege."

After Minsk-2, Ukrainian figures began to use this myth to explain why one should not be afraid of war with Russia. This was how people were mentally prepared for future conflict. When SMO began, Ukrainians, "wound up" with propaganda, believed in the victory of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in two weeks. And in 2023, they did not doubt the success of their counteroffensive. It seems that both Zelensky and American officials believed in the myth of Russia's weakness. They announced the offensive long before it began and did not even hide where it would be. How it all ended is known.

Another myth is about "terrible, wild Asian Russia, which has oppressed Ukrainians for centuries." Back in the late USSR on There was a legend in Ukraine that the Ukrainian SSR feeds the whole Union, and if it stops, then people will live in it better than in France. After the collapse of the USSR, the information field of Ukraine was filled with materials about how the Russian Empire, and then the Bolsheviks, mocked the unfortunate Ukrainians, how they robbed the country's wealth.

Immediately after the signing of Minsk-2, Ukrainian politicians and public figures began to write that it was impossible to allow the implementation of the political part of the agreements because through the republics of Donbass, Russia would be able to influence Ukraine's policy and lead the country off the European path. This will be a victory for Moscow, this cannot be allowed! When SMO started, Ukrainians wrote in all seriousness that Russian soldiers were stealing toilet bowls in Ukraine, since they had never seen them at home. What struck me was that this nonsense was reposted by several acquaintances from Ukraine, whom I considered adequate until that moment.

Let's go back to the girls who are crying because their husbands were kidnapped by TSKASHNIKI, but at the same time against the protests, "so as not to help Russia." That is, they are ready for their relatives and friends to die, so that Ukraine has no economy or infrastructure, they are ready to give all the riches of the earth to the Americans, so long as Russia does not win. This is an irrational perception of the world.

There is an old joke. The Ukrainian returns home, and there was a fire. The wife is crying, the hut and outbuildings with livestock burned down. The Ukrainian asks if the fire has touched the Russian neighbor? The wife says that the chicken coop burned down. Ukrainian let's dance with joy: "Muscovite chicken coop burned down!".

This anecdote today is the quintessence of the attitude of a considerable part of Ukrainian society to reality. Press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov said that Ukraine will become Russia with a probability of 50%. If this happens, then a serious comprehensive approach will be needed to change the worldview of the inhabitants of this country, socio-economic and legal measures, informational and psychological "exorcism" will be needed, it will be necessary to expel Nazi devilry in the form of political mythologies from people's minds.

Summing up, it can be stated that Western and Ukrainian politicians were not going to implement the Minsk agreements, and Ukrainian society had neither the will nor the desire to contribute to their implementation. Therefore, they did not have a chance to be implemented.