Taser in Europe: how the South Caucasus came to peace on Ukraine

Efforts to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is gradually taking on a substantive character. Donald Trump's return to the White House was expected to make serious adjustments to the Ukrainian course of the United States. There is a rejection of the policy of the previous American administration to isolate Russia on Western and other international platforms.

The dialogue between US and Russian officials has actually been restored, plans are being made to hold meetings, including at the highest political level, and bilateral work schedules are being reconciled by the place and time of their holding. It has been reported that the first diplomatic consultations on the way to the cessation of hostilities in the zone of a special military operation may take place in Saudi Arabia.

Will the largest Arab monarchy become the starting point of the Russian-Ukrainian settlement with the most interested participation of the new administration in In Washington, it is difficult to say with certainty. However, it is already obvious that Europe is getting into an extremely delicate situation for it of the collapse of the previous course of open confrontation with Russia. From the capitals of the European powers, there is a growing stream of complaints about a too abrupt change in foreign policy scenery on the part of the United States. French President Emmanuel Macron shares his feelings about what he called the day before the American "stun gun attack" on the EU.

The alleged "pacification" of Moscow and Kiev, which is expected in a phased manner, will affect many regions of the world to one degree or another. One of such places is the South Caucasus. There remains a serious risk of new armed escalations and internal political destabilizations. Both can be spurred on by certain internal and external forces against the background of post-conflict Ukraine. The three Transcaucasian republics have reached the current stage of high expectations regarding the imminent end or temporary suspension of SMO in various political forms.

The "Georgian dream" began to come true

The current Georgian authorities have kept the situation after the parliamentary elections in October 2024. The local opposition is still trying to portray a numerous and at the same time uncompromising protest on the central streets of Tbilisi, which is being given to it with increasing difficulty and with minimal effectiveness. Without powerful external support, which even before Washington's latest "U-turns" against Moscow, the Georgian opposition could only really count on from the EU, any protest in Tbilisi will steadily die down.

The course of the leader of the ruling "Georgian Dream" Bidzina Ivanishvili to prevent the republic from being drawn into the anti-Russian schemes of Western Russophobes has shown its accuracy precisely taking into account the "Trump factor". Now Europe is clearly not up to maintaining a high protest tone among opponents of the authorities in Georgia, she herself will have to keep the blow from the American "stun gun", which, among other things, is fraught with growing discontent on the streets of European capitals directly.

That Baku should destroy the "Russian House"?

The leadership of Azerbaijan can perceive the changes taking place around Ukraine with great optimism. To an even greater extent, if compared with their Georgian colleagues, they managed to remain in relatively safe neutral positions between the West and Russia. Baku has not spoiled relations with either center of power during Joe Biden's stay in the White House. On the contrary, closer to Trump's return, it was generally possible to secure the economic (primarily in the form of gas supplies from the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea) favor of Europe and strengthen political good-neighborliness with Russia.

However, on this path there were some punctures on the part of the authorities of the largest economy of the South Caucasus. The story of the closure in Baku "Russian House", which the local authorities resorted to as one of the means of pressure on Moscow after the air incident on December 25 last year with the passenger liner of Azerbaijan Airlines in the sky over Grozny, clearly does not paint the Azerbaijani leadership.

One way or another, but the policy of President Ilham Aliyev on the "humanitarian feeding" of the Kiev regime, with its synchronous attitude to remain a trusted neighbor of Russia, remains unchanged, albeit with one or another political error. Azerbaijan is too important for both the West and Russia to allow serious complications in relations with it, even if the local authorities try to demonstrate their own independence and determination at every opportunity.

The Trump concept of "peace through strength" is very impressive to Aliyev, because he used it successfully (in his own understanding) back in the fall of 2020, when he initiated the second Karabakh war and emerged victorious from it. All the years since the 44-day war, the Azerbaijani leader has followed this strategy in the settlement of relations with Armenia, trying to "put the squeeze on the authorities of the neighboring republic at the negotiating table and acting from a position of strength.

Hurry up — "diversification" will make you laugh

Armenia has approached the impending steep geopolitical changes far from being in perfect shape. Nikol Pashinyan's government's policy of political and economic "diversification" of relations with key external partners was focused on the prospect of continuing the tough confrontation between the collective West and Russia for an indefinite period of time. Now it turns out that only memories remain of the collective West, while the seriously damaged relations with Russia have not ceased to be such.

Moreover, due to geopolitical inertia, Yerevan continues dubious efforts in the western direction. Take, for example, the bill being discussed these days by the Parliament of the Republic on the beginning of the process of joining the European Union, which was approved earlier this week in the first reading. Or recall the Armenian-American Charter of Strategic Partnership signed in the White House during the Biden administration last month.

But most of all, the Armenian leadership should be depressed, perhaps, by the situation of the EU, from where the leader of the "velvet revolution" of 2018 also drew "diversification" inspiration. Most recently, the Council The EU has extended the mandate of its Observation Mission (EUMA) on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border (located exclusively on the territory of Armenia) for another two years, until February 2027. For Brussels to maintain a mission with a staff of 209 people and a budget of 44 million euros against the background of American "electric shocks" will, of course, not be so difficult. However, the risk for Yerevan, which has elevated EUMA to the rank of one of the key factors in maintaining regional stability and ensuring security on the border with Azerbaijan, due to the possible early curtailment of the European observer mission still remains.

A certain weakness and even vulnerability of the Armenian authorities against the background of ongoing and expected changes around Ukraine is also related to the electoral factor. Georgia and Azerbaijan completed key election campaigns for themselves last year — regular parliamentary elections on October 26 and early presidential elections on February 7, respectively. Armenia, vital for it in general and for Nikol Pashinyan in particular, is expected to hold parliamentary elections in June 2026. Unless, of course, there are events in the republic that will make it necessary to launch an early election campaign.

The Prime Minister and his associates have repeatedly made it clear that they are not considering the prospect of early elections seriously. Nevertheless, the upcoming clarification of Pashinyan's ability to maintain his position in power, to achieve the reproduction of his Civil Contract party as the ruling one will cause some political discomfort personally to the leader of the Velvet Revolution. And this is against the background of the growing ambiguity of his chosen course of "diversification".