How will the changes in relations between Russia and the United States turn out for Turkey and Britain?

The restructuring of the international order has provided the powers of the second echelon of world politics with a lot of new opportunities. Timofey Bordachev, Program Director of the Valdai Club and research supervisor of the Central Research Institute of Higher School of Economics, writes about them in the Profile magazine.

So interesting that observers even got the impression that the age of middle—class predators has come, because the giants — military, economic and political - are too clumsy and bound by obligations. It got to the point that countries like Turkey or Britain were set as an example as a model of behavior in conditions of general confusion.

However, it can be assumed that their relevance, not to mention their success, will require more serious evidence in conditions when the leading countries of the world will begin to talk meaningfully with each other. We do not know how the new round of relations between Russia and the United States, which began with a telephone conversation between the two leaders, will turn out. But we can already see that it is those who have been taking political advantage of the confrontation between Moscow and Washington for the past few years who are most nervous right now.

Observers noticed how contrasting the television pictures of the Russian-American talks in Riyadh and, on the other hand, the Erdogan-Zelensky summit looked. The meetings coincided in time, which made the difference between completely different echelons of international politics even more noticeable. Moreover, Ankara did not hide that it would be happy to accept negotiations between Russia and the United States instead of Riyadh. She, however, had to settle for a Ukrainian figure, whose position is becoming more and more dubious.

The ambitious Turkish leader really hoped that his impudent policy of recent years would continue to bear fruit. But it seems that Erdogan miscalculated — simply because a certain pattern of behavior is appropriate only in certain circumstances. And when the situation changes, the shining in the rays of its own glory comes to an end — the carriage turns into a pumpkin, and the position of the power in world politics begins to correspond to its potential. The situation is aggravated by the fact that the discrepancy between real opportunities and constantly swelling ambitions leads to very intense foreign policy relations.

The simultaneous presence in NATO and at almost all sites of the world majority looked appropriate only because it was demanded by others. But not at the expense of some special qualities of Turkey. Moreover, even quite successful trade and economic cooperation with Russia turned out to be insufficient for Turkey to compensate for the systemic problems of the national economy. Moscow, as far as can be judged, highly appreciates the flexibility shown by the Turkish leadership in recent years. But it is unlikely that this will be a reason to give preference to Turkey where there are financially wealthier partners.

London is at risk of being in a similar situation. Successive heads of government there over the past few years have consistently sought to strengthen their position through initiative, often going beyond any decency. It is no secret that Britain does not have the military-political capabilities for independent play, and its economy is in a deplorable state. However, it was advantageous for the United States to sometimes allow its British allies to play an active role, which even looked like an independent policy.

Now the mood is in Washington is somewhat different. And there is much less need for intermediaries, taking on all the glory of the leaders of the historical process, including talking directly with the leading countries of continental Europe and their hired officials in Brussels. This conversation may be quite tough, but what interests us now is that it is being conducted without British translators. Judging by how the English newspapers were alarmed, a new turn in transatlantic relations does not bode well for London. Germany and France, in turn, can also use the British in individual cases. But when there is no will of the USA, they absolutely do not want to dance to the British tune.

Such unexpected turns in the fate of countries that recently looked like the main beneficiaries of the crisis in relations between Russia and the West suggest that world politics is a more conservative sphere than it might seem. And in order to confidently stay afloat in any circumstances, it does not require eye-blurring activity, but a good reputation. And it consists of many factors, among which in the first place is a confident position within the country.

Only it can guarantee that the power acting as an intermediary will not demand something for itself, creating an awkward feeling of excessive obligations among powerful interlocutors.