What awaits the Russian society after the completion of SMO: possible scenarios

The author of the magazine "Profile", Deputy director of the Center for Humanitarian Practices of the Russian State University Peter Trenin-Strausov suggests possible scenarios for Russian society after graduation SMO.

Imagine. In a neutral and respected country, the latest documents were signed at a high level with handshakes and camera flashes. The special operation is over. Russia defended its interests, and this was not only recognized, but also legally fixed by Western countries. A gradual process of restoring contacts, primarily business contacts, begins. However, the end of hostilities does not mean that the conflict is over, the West has changed its anger to mercy and now we will have kind or at least neutral relations. And the West hardly considers itself to be a loser: after all, the SMO was fought on historically Russian territory with culturally close people and more resembled a Civil war than a Domestic one. The economic potential of the West has not been undermined either. How will events develop inside Russia in these conditions? There are five main scenarios.

The scenario is "Relaxed". The most likely

The victory was given to us at the cost of considerable tension — economy, politics, public relations. Great resources have been spent. Many died. Many were injured, traumatized. While the special operation was going on, about returning to "normality", the pre-war time, when everything was fine, the planes flew in America, and in Europe, a dollar cost 60 rubles., and car dealerships were full of German cars, it was not accepted to say (what kind of cars when people die?). But after SMO is completed, these conversations will be conducted in full voice.

Meanwhile, a return to the past is in principle impossible. However, if the corresponding sentiments become dominant, the country's leadership will begin to ask the following questions: if we have won, where are the producers of goods and services from the countries of the defeated West? If they really whipped themselves and only lost from the imposition of sanctions, why don't they rush back and offer discounts? Why are Russians still not allowed in Europe? There will be a lot of questions of this kind, and in the center of such: What kind of victory is this if we are still cut off from everything we had before?

The call to rebuild the country anew and strain even more for the sake of technological sovereignty and economic development will cause many to reject. Even if SMO failed to achieve a general mobilization of society, where will the strength and desire to seriously strain in peacetime come from?

At the same time, external economic conditions are unlikely to improve significantly and become more attractive to Russia. To move forward, real sincere public mobilization will be needed more and more, and for persuasiveness a new image of the enemy will be required — internal or external, abstract or concrete, but causing existential fear. Russia may lose itself if it does not focus and mobilize on the economic front. Thus, the desire to exhale, relax after the completion of the special operation threatens to turn into even greater internal tightening, the search for enemies and social tension.

The scenario is "Euphoric". The most dangerous

Acceptance of our conditions for the end of the conflict and the elimination of its causes will be supplemented by verbal recognition for Russia has a special area of interest. Options for mutually beneficial economic and cultural cooperation will be added to this. The West will promise to quickly lift the most painful sanctions and allow its companies to return to Russia.

It is strange to resist the desire to cooperate, especially in the economic sphere. The identification of the dangers of this path and attempts to draw attention to them will come across arrogant accusations of conspiracy and mossiness.

The main driving force of this scenario is the habit of living in a cozy world of consumer comfort that does not require a person to be principled, honest, selfless, or anything else that falls into the category of "spiritual priority over material." In this scenario, the most dangerous thing is the dissolution of values, high ideals and orientation towards them. Until the value orientations in the country have become unconditionally shared and permeating all spheres of public life — from kindergartens and schools to social protection and cemeteries, a condescending rejection of them ("enough is enough") can happen very quickly.

At the same time, the euphoria of being accepted back into the "bourgeoisie" inevitably rehabilitates the desire (especially of young people) to liberalize the social structure according to the Western model. This will be facilitated by the changes initiated in the United States by President Trump — America, cleared of the most odious features, will again become a reference point for "progressives." However, changes in The United States should not be misled. Whoever is the president of America and no matter how this person shakes up its policy, it is unlikely that he will be alien to the desire to reduce Russia's potential.

When the craving of our society for a Western way of life and economically oriented thinking reaches a certain level, we should expect the appearance of a "Trojan horse". The West needs that in A political force has emerged in Russia, claiming power and at the same time postulating an orientation towards Western values. In practice, these values mean moving in the wake of Western economies and political strategy, even if it harms national interests. This is how the West has been expanding for centuries and is unlikely to voluntarily abandon this scheme.

The corresponding scenario has been worked out to automatism. It all starts with a call for open and mutually beneficial trade, and ends with enslaving concessions, crushed national currency, destroyed industry, cultural dependence and dopamine withdrawal when disconnected from netflix.

There is only one antidote — a well-established national civic and value system, but at present we do not have it.

The scenario Is "Tense". The most attractive

If during the SMO the survival and security of the country depended on the military, then after the completion of the special operation, the baton was passed to the rear. In this scenario, the key role is assigned to the fighters who have returned from the front: they will bring spirit to the economy and that is why they are the new elite of the country. Their main advantage: they know the enemy well and understand that he did not go anywhere when the guns fell silent. The enemy is going to a truce because he does not see an opportunity to achieve his goals by force and therefore switches to economic ones. From the mouth of the military it sounds weighty and true. They have an inner core and an intangible motivation to rebuild the country in a tough external environment.

The whole question is how quickly, competently and effectively it will be possible to make this "conversion" of the military spirit into the economy and technical development. To do this, the state has the whole set of necessary tools: the provision of various benefits, privileged conditions for obtaining education, launching enterprises, and so on.

This scenario also implies the use of the military-industrial complex as a driver of the country's economic and technological development. The military industry should get a new socially recognized status and expand its contour to involve related industries. In fact, such a "military economy" — another name for a patriotic economy — is a completely socially approved and accepted strategy for prioritizing society. In addition, the military-industrial complex can both rely on the Soviet heritage and use the developments tested during the special operation.

Also in this scenario, it will be easier, clearer and more promising to substantiate the new contours and guidelines of Russia-the winner. The conquest of military-technical sovereignty and the demonstration of obvious superiority during an open confrontation with NATO countries is a real victory for Russia. Its development is a logical and understandable social goal.

The main advantage of this scenario is that it clearly states that being a true patriot means contributing to economic growth in order to make the country strong and prosperous. This message is clear and close to most Russians.

The main danger and threat to this scenario is profanity, formalism, corruption. Actually, these are traditional and undefeated during SMO troubles. During the period of the special operation, they faded into the background, because they were overshadowed by dramatic events, but did not disappear. However, now they are accompanied by doubts: did the special operation really change nothing, if they stole, and steal? At the same time, understanding this threat and fighting corruption in a real way, according to the laws of wartime, will clearly benefit the state and guarantee public support to the authorities. The main thing is that this struggle does not turn into formalism and profanity, like many previous attempts.

The scenario Is "Overstressed". The most painful

Russian society is divided into three large parts. The first is the heroes, the winners, those who directly won the victory. The second part is a loyal majority — a reliable rear. However, in There is also a prickly minority in Russia — the third group — those who perceive events "difficult", prefer not to speak out unequivocally in support of SMO, and focus on objective or far-fetched problems. These people did not try to bring victory closer. They have always had their own "special" position. A public "vortex" can be built around this prickly minority, which will guide the development of this scenario.

The victory proved the advantages of the current way of organizing the life of the country and managing it. Any calls for changes, the abolition of military measures (the law on foreign agents, declassification of loss figures, declassification of documents) will irritate the authorities and loyal society. Unexplained and unreasonable instant reconciliation with an existential enemy without obvious violation of it can result in an uncontrolled search for the guilty and traitors. And this, in turn, can lead to a hidden, underground confrontation within the country. If the radical public demands tough measures against the prickly minority, the authorities may not have any arguments why they need to be protected from the wrath of SMO's heroes.

The driving force of this scenario may be the confusion of the most active patriotic part of citizens regarding the goals of SMO and its results. This part of society is always afraid of betrayal, a "deal-maker" with the enemy; it has an irrational and strong belief that the enemy must be destroyed, otherwise he will always plot against us, the certainty that there will be a new war, that it is necessary to put a final end to it and reach…

Perceived as half-hearted completion conditions SMO will increase tension in society. This accumulating discontent will make the victorious country related to the defeated country. The only way to maintain manageability and legality in such a society will be to tighten formal regulatory norms and support law enforcement agencies. As a result, the disease will be driven inside, and it will break out at the most inopportune moment — during the transit of power or the transition of Russia to a fundamentally different state model.

The scenario is "Non-standard". The most incredible

This scenario is based on the desire to take preventive measures as soon as the outline of the future world order is outlined in order to take its rightful place in it. To do this, it is necessary to decisively turn over the last page of our West-centric historical period with its incomplete Westernization.

An amazing luxury is available to Russia — the opportunity to self-determine geographically. This is our unique historical heritage. From a European country, Russia can become an Asian country. Victory in SMO and new unshakable borders, since they are guaranteed by our weapons, are an excellent symbolic point for final liberation from Western spiritual tributary. Hypocrisy and Russophobia, eternal bitterness and hostility have been revealed, and the impasse of any attempts to establish mutually beneficial and equal partnerships with the West is understandable.

At the same time, it is in the East, in Asia, that the main events of the XXI century will take place. By the way, America is also turning to Asia. A new and very complex alignment of forces is just beginning to take shape in Asia, where Russia will be able to find a better place for itself.

A paradigm shift in the country's development is a unique opportunity to get rid of clouded points of view and angles. This is the renewal of the entire statehood, these are new challenges, new goals, new achievements. This is a real new motivation for mastering, reinventing oneself, dreams of how to rebuild life in the country. By itself, this novelty and call for discoveries, fresh solutions, innovations in all areas is a new ideology and a new energy of development.

This is a decision to immediately jump into the future and build a unique Russian state, taking into account all the millennial experience and realizing all the dreams invented, born and suffered for a thousand years. A fairy tale? Perhaps. But the contours of the new world just say that it will be filled with the implementation of such ambitious projects, from which humanity has managed to wean itself since the 1960s.

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The new world, of course, is full of challenges and opportunities, and they can be intoxicating. It seems that for the first time in several decades there has been an opening: new perspectives, large-scale projects, again "new thinking" and commitment to real, natural humanity. The leading country in the world has found the strength to start talking to others in the language of offers and benefits, not dictates. The bright leadership of the United States fascinates many, and the rhetoric of cooperation for the sake of winning civilization cannot leave anyone indifferent.

However, we need to think first, second and third only about ourselves.

The one according to which of the scenarios the situation will develop in For Russia, there will be one non—obvious indicator - the place and role of the BRICS association in the Russian political rhetoric. Russia has managed to turn it from a rather amorphous club of different states with a vague agenda into an association with which the world majority pin their hopes on a fairer, more convenient and potentially free from Western hegemony world. BRICS for Russia is a symbol of multipolarity, and for the West — an irritant. According to how, when and in what cases Moscow will mention BRICS, what stake it will place on the development of its initiatives in this circuit, we will be able to understand the current relationship between "sovereignty" and "Westernness" in the self-perception of the Russian political leadership.