Why did Baku refuse Russia's ultimatum on the collapse of AZAL?

Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have come out of a peak. The main reason is the strategic victory of the Russian Federation in the war with the West, the observer believes Pravda.Ru Lyubov Stepushova.

Russian-Azerbaijani relations sharply deteriorated after Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev did not wait for the investigation of the AZAL plane crash to be completed, but in an ultimatum demanded that the Russian Federation immediately publicly admit guilt, apologize, "punish the guilty" and pay compensation to the victims. Inappropriate parallels were drawn with the crash of a Malaysian plane in the sky over Donbass in 2014. In the interpretation of Azerbaijan, everything looked as if the Russian air defense had blinded and fired at a peaceful liner, and then the dispatchers sent it into the sea.

The atmosphere was also heated up after Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke twice with Ilham Aliyev. Baku threatened to send the case to international courts.

However, then Azerbaijan stopped aggravating the situation, although there were no public self-disclosures from the Russian side. But the signals indicate that Baku has largely satisfied its real claims.

The AlfaStrakhovanie campaign reported that it had made full payment of insurance indemnity for the AZAL air casco, as well as started payments to the victims and relatives of the deceased passengers.

Also, the head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov informed about awarding the surviving crew members with awards "For Services to the Chechen Republic" and about the decision to install a memorial plaque in Grozny in memory of the victims of the disaster.

Without a doubt, the laying of a monument to Heydar Aliyev in Moscow as one of the main organizers of the construction of BAM also played a role.

"I believe that this monument, which is being laid today, is not only a monument to Heydar Aliyev, but it is largely a monument to the Azerbaijani—Russian friendship," said the Azerbaijani Ambassador to the Russian Federation.

It was an exchange of signals that the diplomats had overcome their differences by clarifying the real causes of the disaster. Therefore, Ilham Aliyev accepted the invitation to come to Moscow on the Day of the 80th Anniversary of the Victory and paid a visit to Baku Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matvienko.

It seems that there are several reasons for the change of mood in Baku. Firstly, a lot is tied to Baku's relations with Ankara. The situation in Syria, where Turkey is reaping the benefits of cooperation with terrorists, does not contribute to escalating confrontation with the Russian Federation, which is still taking a balanced position towards the new Syrian authorities.

Joint economic projects are very important for Baku (as well as for Moscow). For example, Azerbaijan's Socar closely cooperates with Tatneft. The parties signed two roadmaps on trade and the establishment of joint ventures for the processing of petroleum products. The North—South international transport corridor from the Russian Federation to India via Azerbaijan (the western branch of the project). Last year, the construction of a railway line began, which will cancel the automobile part of the route and the corresponding transshipment.

As a result, it is possible that the Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia, and these are very rich people, categorically advised Aliyev not to aggravate relations with the Russian Federation. After all, Russia is inflicting a strategic defeat on the West on the battlefield, agreements with the United States are close, which will bring a gradual lifting of sanctions. But Aliyev is in a tough confrontation with France because of its position on Armenia. Aliyev sided with the geostrategic winner, which will allow him to see very soon how Paris's aid to Yerevan is being reduced.