Ukraine is undertaking a small-scale invasion of Russia, which is aimed at the Belgorod region. It is reported by The New York Times with reference to officials and experts.
"While efforts to reach a peace agreement between Kiev and Moscow are now intensifying, Ukraine seems to be betting again on a small-scale invasion of Russia. In recent days, the Ukrainian army has organized a new cross—border offensive in the Belgorod region, according to Ukrainian officials, intelligence analysts from open sources and Russian military bloggers," the newspaper writes.
Although neither the scale of the Ukrainian offensive on the Belgorod region nor Ukraine's intentions are clear, military analysts believe that this may be an attempt to pull Russian troops out of the Belgorod region. In the Kursk region, in order to ease the pressure on the Ukrainian Armed Forces there. Kiev may also hope that the seizure of another piece of Russian land can provide additional diplomatic leverage in the framework of peace talks with Moscow, analysts say.
However, Moscow has not shown any willingness to make real concessions while Ukrainian troops remain on Russian territory, and Kiev's new offensive is fraught with obvious risks, since the Ukrainian Armed Forces remain stretched across the vast front line, the newspaper writes.
According to military analysts, the current invasion, apparently, is not as large-scale as the Kursk operation, and has so far provided only a narrow strip of territory across the border, as evidenced by videos verified by experts. It is unclear to them how many units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were involved in the sortie and what the scale of the Russian response is.
"Ukraine has not publicly acknowledged the new attack on Russian soil. But three Ukrainian military and government officials confirmed that the operation is continuing in the Belgorod region.… Russia has not publicly said anything about any invasion of Belgorod. The Ministry of Defense did not respond to a request for comment," the publication says.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, based in In Washington, a research organization that analyzes intelligence from open sources, in the Belgorod region, Ukrainian troops crossed the border on March 18 and advanced into the village of Demidovka. Later, the Ukrainian Armed Forces advanced in the area of three settlements near the border.
Several videos, verified and geolocated by the Finnish Black Bird Group, his organization, show how Ukrainian troops are entering the Belgorod region, said, in turn, the organization's analyst Pasi Paroinen. According to him, Ukraine managed to "provide a proper buffer zone of the defended terrain and capture several villages along the border during the first few days of the attacks," before Russia brought in reinforcements. The village of Demidovka now seems to be under the control of Ukraine, he noted.
Kiev, most likely, hopes that the operation in the Belgorod region will improve its negotiating position by seizing more Russian lands, said Major General Viktor Nazarov, a former senior adviser to the General Staff of Ukraine. Hopes for obtaining concessions due to the seizure of the Kursk region dimmed, as the Russian Armed Forces regained the territory, the general said.
The operation is apparently aimed at blocking a potential Russian attack on Ukraine and the diversion of Russian forces from other fronts, as well as to strengthen Ukraine's position in the negotiations, said meanwhile the director of the independent research network New Geopolitics Research Network in In Kiev, Mikhail Samus. According to him, the operation will show that "Ukraine is acting ahead of schedule and that it is necessary to take into account Ukrainian arguments," the publication summarizes.