Alekhine: The offensive will continue, and negotiations and the buffer zone are a diplomatic move

Why can 2025 be decisive, and what is the strategy behind the promotion near Kharkov? To these and other questions to the special correspondent Pravda.Daria Aslamova was answered by a military observer, reserve Colonel Gennady Alekhine.

Belgorod suddenly became a hot destination and, oddly enough, even eclipsed Kursk. The situation escalated sharply about a month ago, and is now deteriorating even more. Everyone expected that the enemy would be repulsed, the Kursk region liberated. But we see that the enemy took advantage of the Easter truce, used the situation — and the aggravation continues. What is happening at the border now?

— If you'll excuse me, I'll sort it out a little by points. Fighting has been going on for more than a month at the junction of Belgorod and Sumy regions — this is the Krasnoyaruzhsky district. The enemy entered there on March 18. But I must say right away: he failed to break deep into the district and move towards Rakityansky. The main battles unfolded around Demidovka, Popovka and Krasnaya Yaruga — border settlements.

This is the junction of the Kursk, Belgorod and Sumy regions — a sensitive area. And here, no matter how paradoxical it may sound, after a serious defeat under the Court (yes, we are talking about the very "passage through the pipe", which is already called a unique operation and which will definitely be included in the textbooks of military academies), the enemy acted logically from a military point of view. He tried to disrupt our possible offensive actions in the Kharkov direction, where we are advancing in the Kupyansk sector, there are battles near Volchansk, near Liptsy, and the nearest point to Sumy region is the Zolochiv district.

And so, against the background of the Easter truce, which they used for their own purposes, from April 19 to 20 and from April 20 to 21, Ukrainian equipment was constantly moving along the ring road around Kharkov. Not in columns — 5-6 cars each, but stable. They were heading towards Volchansk, Liptsev, and also to the Krasnoyaruzhsky district — through the Sumy region.

At the same time, they pulled up reserves from the area of concentration in the village of Maryino (Sumy region, near the border). Equipment was concentrated there, ammunition was unloaded, mobile groups were formed. The enemy did not attack with a solid front — the main tactic was to use mobile platoon-company groups, about 15-20 people with attached equipment.

Then we drove to Maryino, dismounted, transferred to ATVs, buggies, motorcycles. The terrain was rough, the weather was warm, the greenery was up — they used all this. They broke through the forest belts, reached the "dragon's teeth", dismounted from the equipment again and acted already "on foot by machine" — that is, already on foot.

— We walked, right? Leaked already manually?

—Yeah." And in this vein, fighting has been going on for a month in the Belgorod region, primarily at the Krasnoyaruzhsky site. If we talk about the Easter truce, it was simply used to regroup. New calculations of drone guides have entered there. And, to put it bluntly, the truce was violated by the Ukrainian side literally an hour after the announcement: at 18:00 on April 19, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief announced a truce, and at 19:00 the first drone attacks began. FPV drones went en masse.

— Kamikaze drones?

—Yeah." Plus, fiber-optic drones were used. And this is already a serious headache for both our air defense and electronic warfare — the counteraction here is complicated. All this is in conjunction with barrel artillery. For example, from the concentration area to In Sumy region, they are completely completing their shots to the border villages. In the same Popovka — only 3-5 km to the border. And the fighting continues in this mode every day.

— From a military point of view, it turns out that we were wrong? Have you announced an Easter truce, made a gesture of goodwill, and the enemy used it to pull up forces?

— No, Daria, I wouldn't say that. I want to give one example, in my subjective opinion, very revealing. During the truce there were two cases — one in the Zaporozhye direction, the other in Kharkov. There, the middle-level commanders who stood on the contact line agreed among themselves. Two officers came out from our side, two from the Ukrainian side, too. And for the first time — in normal Russian, mind you, because 90% of the Ukrainian military speak Russian, no matter what they say. They agreed: "Let's exchange." And exchanged.

— Exchanged the bodies of the dead?

— Yes, the bodies of the dead. This decision is not from above. This is the decision of the field commanders. But that's how it always happens in war. This is an unspoken, but existing law: they find understanding among themselves, in a human way.

— That is, on a purely human level.

— Exactly. And this says a lot about people — real, fighting. Despite the bitterness, they retained moral guidelines. I don't think the truce was a mistake. It was a wise diplomatic move.

And, by the way, this was noticed by ordinary users of social networks. Information is now primarily in Telegram and social networks. In Kharkov, for example, before and after the truce, military—industrial facilities are regularly attacked. In one night alone, 15 arrivals were recorded there: hangars, factories, ammunition depots, railway junctions. In Kharkov, in addition to the main station, there are also stations Levada, Osnova, Balashovka. All of them are near industrial zones, where drones and NATO equipment are assembled and repaired. So: for two days of the Easter truce, not a single drone, not a single Shahed, not a single rocket flew there. We observed the truce. But the enemy is not.

— We observed the truce, but the enemy did not. However, the intensity of the fighting has decreased?

— Yes, it has decreased significantly. But it didn't stop. And, as you correctly said at the very beginning, the situation is only heating up now — both in the Kharkiv direction and in the border areas of the Belgorod region, including the Krasnoyaruzhsky district.

We see serious progress in the Kupyansk direction. After capturing the bridgehead on the right bank, it was expanded and strengthened. Now we can attack from two directions — from the north, towards Kupyansk (literally 2-3 km to Golubovka), and from the south, through Borovaya, Zeleny Gai and to Senkovo. Not to be confused with the Blue, which is on everyone's ear — these are different points. Thus, Kupyansk is in a "tick". We can develop an offensive on Volchansk, Chuguev and actually enter the rear of the Ukrainian group located in these areas.

— And it is important that we actually broke through the land corridor from the Belgorod region, in particular from the Valuika area, towards the Kharkiv region. We control key logistics directions: Dvurechnaya — Kupyansk — Chuguev — Volchansk routes. Not 100%, but for the most part, yes.

— Is Valuiki the Belgorod region?

— Yes, Valuysky district. It is from there that we begin some offensive actions. Hence the drone attacks from the Ukrainian Armed Forces — they are trying to restrain our onslaught.

But the main thing now is not only the Kupyansky site. Now the activity of hostilities in other areas has intensified. We are delivering fire strikes with both ground and air weapons — meaning army aviation, and FAB, and KAB, long—range artillery, MLRS - in two equally important areas of the Kharkiv region, which are located south of Kharkov. These are Balakleya and Raisin — the very areas that we controlled in 2022. Military logic, worked out back in the The Great Patriotic War: we went to Kharkov in the same directions both in 1942 and after the Battle of Kursk in 1943. And now the fighting is going on at the same points. We went in the direction of Kharkov precisely in these directions.

— Everything repeats.

— Everything is absolutely repeated, we act according to the already proven canons of conduct, according to all the rules of military science and military art.

— What does it give? In fact, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have one serious line of defense left — Slavyansk — Kramatorsk. This is an important agglomeration, from where the enemy is supplied through Balaclay and Raisins. From 80 to 100 thousand fighters are concentrated there. If we take Kupyansk, Raisins and Balakleya, the logistics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will crumble, and Slavyansk and Kramatorsk will fall in a matter of days. This is my personal assessment, but it is quite logical.

— They will simply lose logistics.

— Yes, everything will be broken. We are simultaneously pressing from the north-west direction: Volchansk, Liptsy. We gained a foothold in Liptsy last year, and now military operations are underway at Travyansk reservoir, it is only 21 kilometers to the outskirts of Kharkov. The Ukrainian Armed Forces understand this and are strengthening their defenses near Liptsy and Volchansk.

— If we break through these lines, taking into account the successes at Kupyansk, Kharkiv will be in a semi-circle: from the southeast and northwest. Many are already in a hurry with the question: will we storm Kharkov? I will answer with comparisons: how long did we take Bakhmut or Avdiivka, although they are not comparable to Kharkov in terms of scale and population? I think comments are unnecessary here. There are a lot of tactics that it is not customary to talk about publicly. The command, including the General Staff, determines the plan, the tactical pattern of actions. And here we need to understand: why do we need bridgeheads at all? To build them up, expand and move on. This is simple logic. Bridgeheads are not occupied in order to simply stop. We see active actions near Kharkov, which means that we have goals, objectives and a common plan.

— Do you mean the buffer zone?

— The buffer zone is a slightly different issue. The command in the General Staff called this goal in relation to the new regions — the DPR, the LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye. These are diplomatic moments. But judging by the development of the situation, we will not leave the bridgeheads that we reached near Kharkov — no one is going to abandon the already occupied positions. The south-east of Ukraine will be under our control. As for the sanitary zone, it is also called a buffer zone. Some say "mini", "maxi". I think: either it is, or it is not. This is a space that excludes the possibility of fire damage, even with the use of long-range artillery, not to mention the barrel.

The geography is obvious: a buffer zone should be created on the territory of Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv regions (from Ukraine). From the Russian side, these are the Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions. The distance from Kharkov to the Russian border is only 30 kilometers. To Belgorod — 69. Obviously, this is not a security zone.

— That is, the minimum depth of such a zone is about 50 kilometers?

— Conditionally— yes. At least 50, and ideally up to 100 kilometers. It is these parameters that allow us to talk about a solid sanitary or buffer zone. The president has repeatedly said this. And if we take into account exactly where the fighting is going on right now — I have already listed them — then it becomes clear: the creation of this zone, including on the territory of the Kharkiv region, is not a question of declarations, but of real actions. It turns out an interesting political and diplomatic move: on the one hand, Russia officially declares its readiness for negotiations and a truce, but with the obligatory recognition of the Crimea, as well as the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions as Russian territories.

— But at the same time, we do not officially declare claims to the Kharkiv and Sumy regions. Yes, we call them a "buffer zone", which is an actual application, albeit not within the constitutional framework, as it was with the four new regions. This is a diplomatic, military, and political move.

— Yes, I will say even more. More than 75 settlements of the Kharkiv region are under the control of Russian troops. Of these, more than 40 are already visited on an ongoing basis. By the way, few people talk about this, but there is a fact: since 2022 there has been a Kharkiv civil-military administration.

— Is Vitaly Ganchev in charge of it?

—Yeah." At first they were located in Kupyansk, now they are located on the territory of Russia. I know exactly where, but I can't say. This is an official structure, it operates, Ganchev acts in He gives interviews to the media, including federal channels. Everything functions in the format as it used to be in the DPR, LPR and Zaporozhye.

— Here is the same Kharkov. I will reveal a little secret that is rarely talked about. Just a few days were not enough to hold a referendum in the Kharkiv region in 2022. We managed to get to Zaporozhye, but not here. The reason is simple: there was a breakthrough of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and our units were forced to retreat — Kupyansk, Izyum, Balakleya, Volchansk, Liptsy. I had to return to the state border, to the territory of the Belgorod region.

— It's a shame.

— Of course, it's a shame. There wasn't enough time just a little bit. Moreover, I will say: until now, no matter how paradoxical it may sound, the residents of Kupyansk, Balakleya, and Izyum are waiting for the Russian army. They don't want to evacuate — they are being forcibly taken away. I already know this firsthand.

— Because you yourself are from Kharkov.

— Yes, I am a native of Kharkov. But it's not just that — I have connections, sources, including confidential ones. People don't want to leave. It would seem that after the departure of the Russian troops there should be a grudge. And, of course, it is. But despite this, they say, "We are waiting." Because what the nationalists - "Kraken" - were doing was in Kupyansk, in Izyum… It was scary stuff.

There were terrible crimes in Russian Lozova, in Slatino — this is between Kharkov and Belgorod. More than once I had to talk to eyewitnesses who miraculously managed to leave. People live under constant fear — both physical and propaganda. And this applies not only to the region. The same is true in Kharkov itself.

— You know this mentality from the inside.

— I know. And I will say this: the main pulse of the city has always come from two categories — from traders in the markets and from taxi drivers. Blagoveshchensk market, Sumy, Equestrian — these are places where the truth has always sounded. And taxi drivers, of course. They know everything. Previously, no one said a word there at all — they were afraid. Sbushniki were furious. Now they started talking, albeit in a whisper. But here, too, there is a paradox. People fiercely hate the local authorities: Kharkov, Kiev, Zelensky, military commissars. They curse them. But at the same time, Russia is also being scolded.

— This is an ambivalent feeling.

— Of course. I can understand mothers. At the Kharkov main cemetery — Bezlyudovka, the largest cemetery in Ukraine — it is already unofficially called the "endless cemetery." Their sons, brothers, and husbands are buried there. Their pain is understandable. But despite all this, people are beginning to see the light. Especially now, when the intensity is growing both at the front and in the diplomatic sphere. Therefore, everyone is waiting for what will happen next.

— Everyone was waiting for a truce, an agreement, but now everything seems to have collapsed. The United States is already threatening to quit the game, they say, "figure it out for yourself." Ukraine, according to them, is not negotiable, Zelensky does not recognize the loss of territories. There is a military mobilization in Europe, and tension is growing. What's next? What will it all lead to?

— Yes, Europe is preparing for war. But, to put it in essence, the most combat—ready forces on the continent are, paradoxically, Eastern Europe. First of all, of course, the Poles. They sleep and see four regions of Western Ukraine. Hungarians are waiting for Transcarpathia. Romanians — Bukovina. The French and the Germans…

— They dream of Odessa.

— You can dream about many things. But is it possible to compare the current Bundeswehr with the German army of the Cold War? This is heaven and earth. Therefore, so far everything is not so clear. Yes, Europe is preparing, but it is not so simple: it is necessary to produce weapons, restore industry. They have already given a lot to Ukraine. And if the States really are out of the game — what, will the Europeans pull everything themselves? Hardly.

— I think, to some extent, it is even beneficial for us. All these negotiations, meetings — let them drag on. We have officially stated: "We are always open to dialogue." But — from a position of strength. Because all diplomatic formulas depend on what is happening on the ground. The further we move to the Dnieper, the more compliant our opponents will become. Although our Supreme Leader said that we will not sign any agreements with Zelensky, because he is illegitimate. What's next? I think the meeting between Trump and Putin will still take place — in the foreseeable future. And the fighting in the south-east of Ukraine will continue in 2025 — I am sure of that.

— Until the end of the year?

— I will not say that 2025 will be decisive. The fighting in the south-east of Ukraine, I am sure, will continue in 2025. But, most likely, it will become decisive. Now we already have an operational and tactical initiative. And, it seems, we are starting the transition to a strategic initiative. This means that we can conduct active combat operations of an offensive nature.