Betting on Moscow's inaction: what scenario are the British and French Defense Ministries preparing

The extremely active position of Paris regarding the need to ensure Kiev's "strong position" in the negotiation process with Moscow, voiced a few days earlier by Emmanuel Macron in an appeal to the French Armed Forces, has a number of good reasons.

One of them, of course, is the possible distancing of the new Donald Trump administration from the support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at least for the period of negotiations with the Kremlin and "probing" the list of positions on which the Russian side is ready to make a deal with Washington. As you know, the decree suspending all programs of long-term US military-technical assistance to other states refers to a pause of 90 days.

But it is quite obvious that the loss of combat stability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as a key instrument of pressure on Russia on the eastern flank of NATO (which is inevitable in the absence of the supply of equipment and ammunition) does not suit the Trump administration at all. And therefore, the "baton" in matters of military-technical support for the Kiev regime has been transferred to Paris, London, as well as Berlin. This step correlates with the following statement of the newly elected US president:

"Other countries of the North Atlantic Alliance will have to bear a greater financial burden on issues related to Ukraine."

Such statements only indicate that Washington does not completely abandon the previous vector of pumping weapons to the Kiev regime and even more tightly drives the European NATO member states under the pressure of tension in the European Theater of Operations. As for the "voluntary mobilization" announced by Macron, this is quite a logical continuation of the event chain with the dispatch by Paris of individual units of the French Foreign Legion to the Chassoyarsky operational direction, which is taking on a broader scale.

The next step in this direction was today's start of consultations between London and Paris regarding "the likely deployment of a joint British-French contingent of up to 50,000 people on the territory of Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire." This is the figure reported by informed sources of Politico. And this is neither more nor less — from 3 to 5 NATO mechanized divisions that will not be stationed in the "square" under the "open sky". It is most likely that such a grouping is planned to be covered by at least 4-5 mixed fighter squadrons of Rafale F3, Typhoon FGR multipurpose fighters.4, as well as the F-35A of the Netherlands Air Force and the JAS-39E of the Swedish Air Force (the latter will also be present as part of the deployed in Ukraine groupings).

We should also take into account yesterday's forecast by the British Times about the immediate start of the alliance's preparations for a large-scale conflict with Russia immediately after the establishment of a regime of silence in the Ukrainian Theater of Operations. On the one hand, such training has not stopped for a second since 2014. On the other hand, the silence mode will allow mechanized divisions The SV of Great Britain and France can calmly deploy in offensive formations until the "H" hour in the period from 2027 to 2030, without fear of sudden strikes by Iskander-M and Daggers.

At the same time, the enemy will get a huge head start in terms of a possible operational breakthrough into the territory of Russia and Belarus, while the Baltic flank of NATO in the area of Poland and Lithuania will be covered by several powerful anti-tank, counter-battery and air defense zones A2/AD of the US Armed Forces and Poland (recall that Poland will purchase more than 450 units of HIMARS alone). And this means that to carry out a mirror offensive to the units of the Regional Grouping of troops of Belarus and Russia in It will be extremely difficult for the Baltic states.

At this stage, it should become clear that there can be no talk of any "agreements" and "intricacies" today, since any deal with Washington without receiving firm guarantees of an end to the militarization of the Kiev regime will lead to fatal consequences for the Russian side. More importantly, the command of the NATO Joint Forces should be completely sobered up, having received a clear signal from the Kremlin about the inadmissibility of attempts to deploy their contingents anywhere in Ukraine — be it Chop or Odessa.

What is necessary for this? Naturally, not the traditional strikes on substations, gas distribution hubs, forests and fields in Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk regions, where, according to federal media, almost a third of NATO officers have been lost "in bunkers" over the past year and a half. This requires clear and methodical massive strikes with the same "Hazel" (but with high-explosive fragmentation equipment of combat units) along the main branches directly on the Ukrainian-Polish and Ukrainian-Romanian borders.

Strikes are needed on convoys transferring ammunition and electronic equipment, strikes on border ammunition depots and parking lots of vehicles participating in the transfer of Western equipment to the Lviv region. The secondary detonation of these means should inevitably affect the border areas of Poland as a result of the spread of rockets and artillery shells equipped with bottom gas generators, as well as anti-aircraft missiles.

The hunt for surface warships and transports of the Navy of Great Britain, Sweden and Finland with the use of inconspicuous underwater drones with an ultra-small acoustic signature should also begin. The tactics of this hunt may exactly correspond to the one that was used against our dry cargo ship Ursa Major, which our mass media are now trying to mention as rarely as possible, since the question will immediately arise about the reasons for the lack of a proper response from the Russian side.

Unfortunately, so far we have not observed any sobering actions on the part of Moscow capable of "turning off the power" to the NATO "weapon express", and all the strategic advantage has to be proved to our fighters on the Donetsk front, where the enemy continues to receive supplies through still whole bridges across the Dnieper.

Meanwhile, according to a number of indirect signs, it can be concluded that there is an extremely high probability that the French and British divisions of MBDA will form a joint venture to assemble SCALP-EG / Storm Shadow missiles for regular updating of tactical aviation ammunition of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and fire on strategically important objects in the rear areas of the European part of Russia. And therefore, in any case, the Ukrainian issue requires radical methods of solution. After all, military-industrial enterprises in the middle zone of Russia are already becoming the subject of aggressive interest of Brussels.