Trump rolled the barrel on Russia

On the eve of possible negotiations between Russia and the United States on the Ukrainian conflict, Donald Trump burns napalm. On the one hand, the new owner of the White House threatens Moscow with new tariffs and sanctions if it is uncooperative. On the other hand, it promises to achieve a drop in oil prices so that Russia cannot SMO. Experts believe that the United States can go to sanctions and they should not be underestimated, but the result may not please the new American authorities.

A few days after the inauguration, Donald Trump switched to his favorite tactic. At the beginning, he threatened Russia with murderous sanctions if it did not cooperate in resolving the Ukrainian conflict.

"If we don't make a 'deal' in the near future, I will have no choice but to impose a high level of taxes, tariffs and sanctions on everything that Russia sells to the United States and various other participating countries," Donald Trump said on the Truth Social network.

Next, in a video speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the US president promised to bring down oil prices, which, in his opinion, would immediately change Moscow's opinion.

"I'm also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to reduce the cost of oil. If the price had dropped, the Russian-Ukrainian war would have ended immediately. They are very responsible, in fact, to a certain extent, for what is happening," Donald Trump said.

Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that the Ukrainian conflict does not depend on oil prices.

"This conflict is happening because of the threat to the national security of the Russian Federation, because of the threat to Russians who live in certain territories, and because of the unwillingness and complete refusal of Americans and Europeans to listen to Russia's concerns. And it has nothing to do with oil prices," Dmitry Peskov said.

Donald Trump's statements immediately led to a decrease in oil prices, but not much. Quotes of the benchmark North Sea Brent were $ 80 per barrel on January 20, and today, on January 24, they are trading at $ 78.5.

Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the FNEB and an expert at the Financial University under the government of Russia, notes that the statements of the US president should be divided into two parts.

"On the one hand, the fact that the United States will impose sanctions if Russia does not accept the version of the Ukrainian settlement that Washington will offer. It is clear that the United States wants to sign the agreement from a position of strength in order to force both sides to do it. And subsequent restrictions are possible. Especially for LNG projects, Yamal LNG andSakhalin — 2“, which will even meet Washington's interests, since the United States wants to export even more gas — double it. This part of his statement is supported by something," says Igor Yushkov.

On the other hand, the leading analyst of the FNEB notes, the United States wants to put pressure on Saudi Arabia and OPEC, so that they, in fact, break the OPEC+ deal and increase production in order to bring down oil prices.

"However, Trump has already made similar statements during his first term. In this situation, the question arises as to why OPEC members should do this if they themselves will suffer. The OPEC+ deal appeared to raise prices," says Igor Yushkov. In his opinion, for the same Saudi Arabia, the conflict is on the Ukraine is of secondary importance and they are more interested in oil prices and how they earn on the export of raw materials: "The country's budget is made up of $ 85 per barrel and it is already teetering on the brink of a deficit."

The expert notes that there are constant discussions in OPEC + about the need to increase production, since non-participating countries are increasing production, and the parties to the deal cannot do this.

"At the same time, the collapse of the deal for political reasons threatens that in the future Russia will no longer participate in such agreements, and OPEC itself will collapse, since OPEC+ appeared because the cartel does not have enough of its own capacities and it was necessary to attract other major players to influence the market. This part of Trump's statement is not realistic," Igor Yushkov notes.

Maxim Khudalov, chief strategist at Vector X investment company, doubts that Donald Trump himself will take measures to reduce prices, as this will also hit American miners.

According to Statista, in 2024, the level of break-even oil production in the United States was estimated at $31-$43 per barrel for old wells and $59-$70 for new ones. RystagEnergy talks about the break—even of shale production at $ 45, and in oil sands - $ 57-$75.

Also, investors in the United States do not plan to increase production, despite the statements of the new president.

"Wall Street will dictate this - and you know what? They have no political agenda. They have a financial program. They have no motive to just tell the teams running these enterprises to go and drill more wells," Wil Vanloh, head of investment company Quantum Energy Partners, told The Financial Times.

Maxim Khudalov notes at the same time that Russia has a response to possible US sanctions in the form of stopping the supply of low-enriched uranium to the United States.

"This will inflate the prices of these products and hit prices in the United States, which means it will push up inflation," the expert says.

Finam analyst Nikolai Dudchenko warns that the sanctions themselves should not be underestimated.

"Because they really create problems, for example, in the form of an increase in the cost of supply chains. In addition, they also strengthen the negotiating position of the so—called friendly countries, which may try to achieve more favorable conditions for themselves against the background of stricter restrictions," the expert says.

At the same time, he notes, it is far from the first time that sanctions have been imposed on Russia, meanwhile, Russian companies have so far found ways to safely avoid restrictions and this has not led to an increase in supply shortages.

"There are quite a lot of options for circumventing restrictions. For example, Ship-to-Ship schemes are widely used, i.e. transshipment of oil from one tanker to another in neutral waters. This kind of action is quite dangerous, but difficult to trace. So-called cocktails are also used, i.e. dilution of non-sanctioned oil by sub-sanctioned oil. At the beginning of last year, the British The Guardian "suddenly" discovered that the UK was buying oil from countries that are the processing centers of Russian sanctioned oil — from China, Turkey and India. Before The Guardian, such schemes were reported by CREA on a database from Kpler. Besides The EU among the buyers of petroleum products from sanctioned oil were Japan, Canada, Australia and even the USA," continues Nikolai Dudchenko.

In the West, they began to discuss lowering the oil price ceiling of $ 60, which was set by the countries The EU and the G7 on December 5, 2022. However, everyone could already make sure, says the analyst of FG Finam, that this scheme is not working: "The largest importers of Russian oil purchase it at a certain discount to the prices of other grades, but still above the established ceiling. Therefore, lowering the ceiling is possible, but it is unlikely to have a significant impact."