Gas from the Turkish Stream for Slovakia dissolves in the Balkans

For the last seven days, the Turkish Stream has been operating at a new maximum. Compared to January, the used capacity of Gazprom's only remaining export route to Europe increased by more than 12%. Bratislava stated that Russian gas for Slovakia, which was left without Ukrainian transit, has been going through the Turkish Stream since February. However, judging by the data of the platform of the GTS operators of the EU countries, the fuel does not reach the country. Current stocks in Slovakia has enough until the end of the heating season and it is possible that Slovak SPP may sell volumes in the Balkans, where they are needed for domestic consumption and supplies to Moldova, including Transnistria.

Since February 4, the Turkish Stream gas pipeline has reached a new maximum of supplies. According to ENTSOG, compared to January, they increased by more than 12% to 55.7 million cubic meters per day. Compared to February 2024, the jump in general amounted to almost 33%.

The growth of supplies is also confirmed by the RBP platform data. At the monthly auction, the exit from the Turkish Stream to Bulgaria was booked for an additional 3.1 million cubic meters, and at daily auctions in recent days they have been buying out capacities up to 6 million cubic meters per day.

Since January 1, Kiev has stopped the transit of Russian gas and Slovakia has been left without supplies, whose Prime Minister Robert Fico is trying to get the Ukrainian authorities to resume transit. In Bratislava, it was stated that in the conditions of a shutdown, part of the Russian gas could go through the Turkish Stream, which was recently confirmed by the head of the Slovak SPP, Wojtech Ferenc. He said that deliveries began in February and will double in April. About the new route of Russian gas imports to Slovakia was also announced by the head of the Slovak government, Robert Fico.

Perhaps we are talking about the supply of 3.1 million cubic meters per day, which were booked at a monthly auction. Slovak SPP does not report on them, and Gazprom does not talk about supplies at all. At the same time, these volumes correspond to what the infrastructure of the Balkan countries, with normal loading and technical capabilities, can transfer to Slovakia — 1.1 billion cubic meters, which corresponds to 46% of Gazprom's supplies to the country before the stop of Ukrainian transit.

At the same time, as the platform of the GTS operators of the EU ENTSOG shows, gas from the Turkish Stream does not reach Slovakia. At least supplies via Serbia and Romania in Hungary, from where gas can get to Slovakia, did not increase, but even decreased in February — from 23 million to 22 million cubic meters per day.

According to Alexey Grivach, Deputy Director of the National Energy Security Fund (NFEB), the flow of gas from Hungary to Slovakia also did not grow.

"To be honest, it's not very clear what Fico is talking about. Gas flow from Hungary to Slovakia has been in the region of 9-10 million per day since the end of last year, and it is going on. At the beginning of February, it even fell to 6 million, but it has already recovered," notes the deputy director of the FNEB.

He does not rule out that there is a swap exchange of volumes with traders in the Balkans, since from the point of view of gas flows, supplies to Slovakia is not noticeable.

According to ENTSOG, since February 4, more gas from the Turkish Stream has been supplied to Greece (plus 2 million cubic meters per day compared to January), Romania (plus 5 million cubic meters per day) and remains in Bulgaria (plus 2 million cubic meters per day). This is indirectly confirmed by the data of local exchanges. For example, on the Romanian BRM, the volume of spot trading for the day ahead reaches 15.4 million cubic meters per day in February, while in January it did not exceed 7.4 million cubic meters. The head of Moldovagaz, Vadim Cheban, confirmed that gas purchases for Moldova and Transdniestria is carried out on the Romanian and Bulgarian stock exchanges.

Obviously, further additional volumes of the Turkish Stream are used for domestic consumption in Romania and are supplied to Moldova and Transnistria — both directly and through Ukraine. Total supplies from Romania to the east have increased by 2.5 million cubic meters per day since January — up to 7.6 million cubic meters.

In November, when Gazprom stopped gas supplies to Austrian OMV, Slovak SPP was already actively trading in the Austrian Baumgarten hub. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the company is now selling Russian fuel to Balkan traders or consumers. On February 11, Bulgarian Balkan Gas Hub and Romanian BRM traded spot supplies for more than $ 800 per thousand cubic meters. This is the highest price for the region since April 2023. Demand is fueled by colder weather and the fact that this year Moldova stores and takes all the gas, including for Transnistria, in the Balkans.

At the same time, in Slovakia itself, gas storage facilities are 55% full, according to GIE, and even with an increased selection of 24.5 million cubic meters per day, there will be more than enough reserves until the end of the heating season — for another 80 days.