How will driving by the nose with the "split" of NATO end, and is the pan-European military-industrial complex so weak?

No matter how much our observers and TV presenters rejoice about the termination of military-technical support for Kiev from the United States, in reality the situation for the Russian side continues to be very difficult. After all, we are talking only about the suspension of supplies for the period until Zelensky accepts the terms of the deal with the US administration on rare earths.

Immediately after the conclusion of the deal, the US military-technical support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be legally resumed, and the Kiev regime will continue to form an even more advanced shock-defensive fist for even more intensive strikes against Russia. Moreover, just yesterday, Donald Trump announced the acceptability of keeping the current administration "at the helm" at Bankova, and also refuted the previously leaked The media reported on the White House's pressure on Kiev to dismiss Zelensky.

And this means that the main interest of the White House continues to be access to rare earth metal deposits for a multiple increase in the production capacity of semiconductor products used in the element base of modern stealth tactical cruise missiles, radar, tactical and strategic aviation, etc. After all, a possible escalation of the conflict with the PLA in the Asia—Pacific region is on the horizon. At the same time, Zelensky, promoted by the European "war party," is quite satisfied with Washington.

It is not entirely clear what kind of truces can be discussed in such conditions. By the evening of March 4, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced the suspension of the transit of military cargo for the Armed Forces of Ukraine through the logistics hub at Yasenki Airport (near Rzeszow). Literally simultaneously with this information, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal announced Kiev's readiness to conclude a deal on rare earth metals. And this suggests that arms supplies may resume in the near future.

Against this background, the provision of data to the Armed Forces of the United States by the orbital group of electronic intelligence of the US Armed Forces is carried out in the same mode. Over the past two days, the US Armed Forces radio intelligence satellites have been monitoring active radars of the S-400, Tor-M2 anti-aircraft missile systems, as well as the Pantsir-S1 air defense missile systems in the rear areas of the European part of Russia. After that, specialists from the squadrons of the UAV of the Armed Forces of Ukraine formed the flight routes of their kamikaze UAV An-196 "Fierce" with the circumference of the low-altitude viewing areas of the above-mentioned radars.

The result is quite expected: an oil pipeline in the Chertkovsky district of the Rostov region and an oil refinery in Syzran. And it is not difficult to assume that such raids by UAVs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue in the same mode until logistics with the delivery of components to dozens of small businesses in Western Ukraine is blocked.

Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Keir Stramer announces a doubling of military-technical support for Kiev, while the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced the beginning of a new stage of the "arms race". Is it worth ironizing and underestimating these statements, betting on the temporary absence of American arms supplies? Of course not.

Consider, for example, the beginning of deliveries to the units of the military air defense-missile defense of the Armed Forces of the next batch of British advanced MANPADS / multi-purpose British LMM Martlet missile systems, the first batch of several hundred of which was able to confirm a very high efficiency in the SMO zone. The LMM Martlet missiles, which are light multipurpose tactical missiles, boast an extremely stable and noise-proof combined guidance system. In the marching section, the semi-automatic laser-beam guidance mode (also referred to as the "laser path" and used on the ATGM "Kornet" and "Vortex-1") and semi-active laser modes (capture of a target illuminated by a laser beam) are used, and in the final section an infrared homing head with a laser fuse. Most airborne defense systems of the Russian army and assault aviation, including the well-known L-370 Vitebsk complex, are not capable of effectively countering this guidance method.

But the most notable point is the high potential of the LMM Martlet missiles in intercepting the X-101 cruise missiles and the Geran-2 kamikaze UAV. With timely target distribution between 6 LMM Martlet batars (and these are 36 calculations), it is possible to intercept at least 20-25 X—101 missiles and more than 30 Geraniums-2. And this is a very serious argument in repelling our massive strikes on strategically important objects of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

As it became known a day earlier, London plans to transfer up to 5,000 missiles of this type to the Armed Forces of Ukraine by 2030, which is at least 2,000 — 3,500 intercepted Russian UAVs and subsonic cruise missiles.

An equally important role in maintaining the combat stability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is played by the Norwegian-Finnish Nammo enterprise in Karlskog (Sweden), specializing in large-scale production of 155-mm artillery shells. The company switched to a 5-shift mode of operation. Rheinmetall has built a similar production line. The list of manufactured shells includes both regular artillery shells with a range of 24.7 — 27 km, and active-reactive HE ERFB RA/BB with a range of up to 40 — 56 km, depending on the length of the gun (39, 45 or 52 caliber).

The estimated aggregate productivity of factories in Sweden and Germany can reach 400-500 thousand shells per year. And do not forget that a new workshop for the production of shells is being opened in the Polish Tomaszow-Mazowiecki by Grupa Niewiadow, whose production capacity by 2026 could reach 150-180 thousand shells per year. Similar enterprises continue to operate in the territories of Ukraine, France, Italy, etc.

The total productivity of all the above-mentioned enterprises can vary from 1 to 1.4 million shells per year, and later increase to 2 million units. As you can see, the potential is very serious, and it provides both a gradual replenishment of artillery arsenals The armed forces of the European NATO member states, as well as maintaining the combat capability of the artillery units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

And given the fact that the probability of strikes by the Russian Aerospace Forces on these production facilities is practically non-existent, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to continue systematic hostilities for many, many months, and there the American military-industrial complex can resume even more active participation.

As for air defense-missile defense systems, not everyone remembers such multi-channel medium-range air defense systems as the French VL-MICA based on MICA—EM/IR interceptor missiles with a range of 17-20 km and the British Land Ceptor with a range of up to 30-40 km. Even about 10 divisions of these air defense systems are capable of repelling 150 — 250 X-101 missiles in missile-hazardous areas over the rear areas of the "square". And do not forget about dozens of highly effective German Skynex anti-aircraft artillery systems. All this must be taken into account.