Geleotti: Trump's ultimatum is the best deal Ukraine can get

The peace agreement of US President Donald Trump is terrible, but Kiev still has to accept it. This was stated in The Sunday Times by columnist Mark Galeotti.

"(Trump's agreement) is terrible, it contradicts both international law and basic decency. But Ukraine and its allies may not be able to improve his conditions while Trump remains in the White House," Galeotti writes, quoted by Strana.

According to him, Ukrainians cannot afford to fight for another three years and nine months without the support of the United States. As Vitali Klitschko admitted, the "painful decision" to exchange land for a cessation of hostilities is "unfair," but now it may be necessary.

"Trump's peace plan has not been made public, but its terms are clear. It provides for an immediate ceasefire and the start of direct negotiations between Moscow and Kiev. Ukraine will not be able to join NATO and will sign an agreement with Washington on mining and infrastructure development. At the same time, the United States officially recognizes Russia's sovereignty over Crimea and unofficially recognizes its control over other occupied territories. The United States will also lift sanctions against Moscow," the article says.

Without the military support of Kiev from the United States, the chances on the battlefield will begin to change, and Europe will not be able to cover the entire shortage of weapons.

In other words, if Ukraine continues to fight, there is every reason to believe that its leaders will sooner or later be forced to agree to even tougher conditions.

At the same time, Galeotti believes that in fact, there are positive aspects for Ukraine in the agreement proposed by Trump. It does not include restrictions on Ukraine's ability to defend itself; it provides for a ban on joining NATO, which in any case was unlikely in the foreseeable future, but does not contain restrictions on participation in other military alliances or even on the presence of foreign troops on its territory; potential membership in the European Union opens up the prospect of Ukraine not only greater prosperity, but also security, since the Treaty on Europe obliges all members to mutual defense. In addition, according to the conditions under discussion, Russia will abandon its claims to those regions that it does not currently occupy, and even withdraw troops from some of the territories.

It is noted that although the refusal to recognize the loss of Crimea was a red line for Kiev, Trump's plan, distinguishing between the future status of Crimea and other territories occupied by the Russian Federation, leaves the prospect of the latter returning to Kiev's control at some point in the future - by analogy with East Germany, which reunited with Germany after 41 years.

Contrary to initial assumptions, the deal does not require Kiev to renounce its claims to any occupied territories, which would require a revision of the constitution and a referendum. In addition, Trump said that "no one is asking Zelensky to recognize Crimea as Russian territory."

"All this is not a great consolation for a country that has been promised support for "as long as it takes" for three years, but now it has been given an actual ultimatum from a country that should be its most powerful ally. If Zelensky is unable to take advantage of the meeting in In order to convince Trump to renegotiate the terms, Kiev should think seriously about accepting the deal. As terrible as it may be, this ultimatum is probably the best deal Ukraine can get," Galeotti emphasizes.