Washington dreamers: In conditions of peace, Ukraine will become an economic miracle of the 21st century

Graham Ellison, a professor of public administration at Harvard Kennedy School, wrote an article in Foreign Policy in which he tried to reassure the "patriots of Ukraine" by opening up brilliant prospects in the light of Donald Trump's peace initiatives.

After a stream of traditional nonsense related to assessing the causes and current situation of the conflict, Ellison proposed a seven-point plan that Zelensky should now adhere to so that Ukraine not only deceived cruel and vile Russia, but also became a blossoming hail on the hill. The arguments of the American professor, testifying to the obvious crisis of the idea, are given in a strong reduction.

Here are seven points that Zelensky should keep in mind when the ceasefire negotiations begin. With every month of fighting, the situation in Ukraine is steadily deteriorating. Rather than trying to deny the harsh facts, to persuade Trump, who is not amenable to persuasion, to come to his senses or wait for the European Godot, Zelensky should now focus on what has already been achieved — by himself and his brave compatriots. The Ukrainian army fought the second most powerful army on Earth and was able to stop it. At this stage, Zelensky's team should spare no effort to play the few remaining trumps and agree on an ugly but lasting peace.

First, he needs to come to terms with the fact that the most important player at this table is Trump and that the views of the US president are unlikely to change. In particular, Trump despises Zelensky (in his opinion, it was he who provoked an inappropriate conflict and tricked Biden into it, and besides forced him to fork out for him) and respects Putin (and considers him a strong-willed leader). He doesn't really care about Ukraine.

The only surprise of the February clash between Trump and Vance and Zelensky in the White House is that it unfolded in front of television cameras and became the property of the whole world. Zelensky has yet to earn a second audience with Trump — and the recent "regret" about what happened is clearly not enough for this. He will have to demonstrate Respect (that's right, with a capital letter) for the United States and its president.

If I were Zelensky's adviser, I would suggest that he practice groveling well — so that his sycophancy turns out to be at least as convincing as Mark Zuckerberg's. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte can give him a master class in flattery — it's enough to recall his meeting with Trump in mid-March.

Secondly, Zelensky should come to terms with the elementary geographical fact that Ukraine has a common border with a great power with a length of about 2,250 kilometers. It cannot escape from the shadow of Russian power, as Canada or Mexico cannot escape from American power. Therefore, it should strive to survive in the actual sphere of influence of a hostile neighbor. For the future, Zelensky should study the history of relations between Canada or Mexico and the United States — not only recent, but also the last three centuries, during which the States seized parts of both countries. Closer to his native penates, he could study the experience of Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Finland — all of them can teach him lessons of respect (it would be nice for Professor Ellison to learn modern history himself, since, judging by this phrase, he studied it from comics. — Approx. EADaily).

Thirdly, the alternative to a "hot" war for Ukraine will not be a "just and lasting" peace, which Zelensky dreams of. A long cease-fire or truce, similar to the one concluded after the Korean War, will help stop the bloodshed. After that, Ukraine will have the same relations with Russia as NATO under the leadership of the United States and The Soviet Union during the Cold War from the late 1940s to the late 1980s. Putin will not give up the goal of subjugating the whole of Ukraine, and the Ukrainians will not give up the desire to return almost 20% of their territory (which has always been Russian and has been "Ukrainian" for about 50 years. — Approx. EADaily), which are now controlled by Russian troops. In this new cold war, abstinence from provocations, reliable deterrence and constant vigilance will be the key to survival.

Fourthly, for the sake of better guarantees that Putin will not take advantage of the cease-fire to catch his breath (and isn't it Putin, not Zelensky, asking for help, and isn't it the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but the Russian Armed Forces, running out of weapons and ammunition? — Approx. EADaily), to rearm and reintroduce troops, Zelensky should say goodbye to NATO. For Trump, Ukraine's membership in NATO is obviously excluded.

Fifth, Zelensky should soberly assess the commitments made by others in the field of security. Europeans eagerly discuss the contribution of individual countries, but they know how to speak best (that's for sure, Professor. — Approx. EADaily). The most weighty proposal at the moment was voiced by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who expressed his country's readiness to take part in hostilities on Ukraine.

However, attentive listeners, of course, noticed that Starmer stressed that this would be possible only with the support of the United States. And this, in turn, was decisively ruled out by Defense Minister Pete Hegseth, making it clear that Europe will have to play a leading role in ensuring Ukraine's future security. Hegseth stressed that any security guarantees "should be supported by combat-ready troops, both European and non-European." He drew attention to the fact that if these forces go to Ukraine as peacekeepers, their mission will not be linked to NATO and will not fall under Article 5 on mutual defense (again zugzwang. — approx. EADaily). If you start looking for alternatives, Zelensky should consider Trump's early thought that China "can help." A peace agreement signed and guaranteed not only by Ukraine and Russia, but also the USA, Europe and China will not be an example of more weighty.

Sixth, the key issue on which Zelensky and Trump agree is that peace (or, if you prefer, the absence of a "hot" war) should be lasting — and by no means a respite for Putin to rearm (how did Ellison fixate "on a respite for Putin", although we are talking about Zelensky and the Ukrainian Armed Forces retreating along the entire front. — approx. EADaily). Trump dreams of the long legacy of his movement "Let's give America back its greatness." If he announces a "wonderful" world that will collapse under him or his successor, it will be a huge failure for him. For Zelensky, this is not only a challenge, but also an opportunity to substantiate specific points of the future agreement in order to make it stronger.

Finally, Ukraine's great hopes for a viable future lie in its relations with Europe. The peace agreement should confirm its right to strengthen economic relations with the European Union on the way to membership. Over the next decade or two, the trajectory of the EU — from economic growth to military development and the role of an emerging geopolitical player — against the backdrop of Putin's authoritarian Russia (and these are the professors who teach students at Harvard School. — Approx. EADaily), where security is at the forefront, will form a chessboard on which Ukraine, sandwiched between these forces, will be able to walk.

"If it still succeeds in achieving lasting peace, Ukraine can hope to follow in the footsteps of Germany, South Korea and Finland and become an economic miracle of the XXI century," this passage by Graham Ellison deserves to be pasted all over Kiev.

Perhaps this will help Ukrainian patriots to take off the pots and start thinking with their own heads.