I called Putin, asked Erdogan: who will "put pressure" on Aliyev?

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan last Thursday reminded President Ilham Aliyev of the full readiness of the text of the peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan and suggested "starting consultations on signing the agreed draft peace agreement."

After the parties announced on March 13 the completion of negotiations on the agreement "On the establishment of peace and interstate relations between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan", the head of the Armenian government has already publicly stated three times that he is ready to sign the document together with the Azerbaijani president.

The reaction directly from Aliyev has not yet followed. Instead, over the past week, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry and the presidential administration of the republic have made it clear several times about the possibility of finalizing peace with a neighboring country only if one main condition and one urgent wish of Baku are fulfilled. In the first case, this is the introduction of changes to The Constitution of Armenia, which, according to the Azerbaijani side, contains territorial claims against Azerbaijan. The second is the official dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group (MG). Since the early 1990s, she has been engaged in international mediation in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, but after the 44-day war in Karabakh in the fall of 2020, she noticeably lost her relevance. Against the background of the differences between Russia on the one hand and the United States and France on the other (the three world powers were co—chairs of the MG) in connection with the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict, this international mechanism subsequently ceased to operate at all.

The fulfillment of the two mentioned conditions, especially the first of them, will take quite a long time, because in order to amend the text of the current Basic Law of Armenia or adopt a new constitution of the republic (the latter version is currently adhered to by the Pashinyan government), it is necessary to go a certain way before holding a constitutional referendum. Its terms in Yerevan is tentatively called the second half of next year or the first months of 2027, following the holding of the next parliamentary elections in the republic in June 2026.

As we have already noted, Azerbaijan does not intend to force the conclusion of peace and wants to wait for the results of the elections in the neighboring country in order to make sure that it signs the peace "not with Pashinyan, and with Armenia." In other words, the scenario in which a peace treaty will be signed now or in the coming months before the parliamentary elections and they will be lost by the incumbent prime minister does not suit Baku. They are afraid of coming to power in There are no "revanchist forces" in Yerevan, the probability of which is extremely insignificant, but at the current stage this gives the Azerbaijani authorities a kind of argument for taking a wait-and-see position.

The almost ultimatum approach of the Azerbaijani leadership made the following question relevant: is it possible to persuade Aliyev to revise his "constitutional ultimatum" to Pashinyan and is there an external force or several such forces at once that can "put pressure" on the Azerbaijani leader?

As you know, he is considered to be little amenable to external pressure, especially given his continued euphoria from a convincing military success in the fall of 2020. And yet Azerbaijan is not a world or even a regional power in order to restrain such pressure over a relatively long time distance with minimal losses for itself. The issue is the presence of large and influential players who would consider it important for themselves to get the Azerbaijani president to sign a peace treaty "here and now".

Alas, in fact, and unfortunately for Pashinyan, such external forces are currently and in the foreseeable future absent.

The Armenian Prime Minister, after one hundred percent approval of the text of the peace treaty, held several telephone conversations with the leaders of the states close to Armenia, presumably with the main goal of gaining understanding from them on the issue of persuading the Azerbaijani leader to sign the historical document as soon as possible. First of all, Nikol Pashinyan got in touch with Vladimir Putin (March 14). Then there were calls to Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian and French President Emmanuel Macron (March 16).

"Nikol Pashinyan announced the completion of the coordination of the text of the peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan and Yerevan's readiness to sign this important document. Vladimir Putin stressed in this regard that Russia has always supported and supports the normalization of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations in the interests of ensuring security, stability and sustainable socio-economic development in the region. Transcaucasian region. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan can always count on any possible assistance from the Russian side in achieving these goals," the Kremlin said after the conversation.

Only the head of the Russian state can really help in this matter from Pashinyan's interlocutors over the past week. However, not everything is so simple and easily achievable.

There is a convenient opportunity to "bring together" Pashinyan and Aliyev at the Moscow venue — both Transcaucasian leaders will be in the Russian capital in May to participate in events dedicated to the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War. However, apparently, there will be a chance only to "compare positions", but not to formalize the conclusion of peace during the corresponding solemn ceremony.

Moscow cannot yet, and is not particularly eager to use all its instruments of influence on Baku to sign peace with Yerevan as soon as possible. The flirtations of the Armenian partner with the West and its synchronous distancing from the West that are still present are too fresh in memory. Russia in the political plane of bilateral relations with, and it should be noted, the rapid pace of trade and economic cooperation.

One way or another, but the Russian leader, we dare to assume, remains committed to the position that peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan should be signed in Moscow. Although this does not seem achievable in the first half of May, it is here.

Nikol Pashinyan has not called Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with this issue, at least not yet. Such a contact would be a logical continuation of the statement of the Turkish leader following his meeting with the Armenian Prime Minister on September 24, 2024 in New York. Erdogan then publicly announced the information received from Pashinyan was asked to assist in achieving peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Subsequently, the Turkish leadership has repeatedly made it clear that it is interested in the early signing of a peace treaty between the two Transcaucasian republics. But real work in this direction, with the appropriate pressure on Baku, which Ankara can undoubtedly afford, is not observed.

Erdogan is currently distracted by serious internal problems: Turkey is gripped by a large-scale wave of protests in connection with the detention of the opposition mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, and dozens of others on criminal charges brought against them. Besides, to push the "younger brother" to peace with Armenia, knowing that it will not be signed in Ankara, and in Moscow or another mutually convenient for Yerevan and Baku, the capital, does not inspire the Turkish president.

As can be assumed from recent events, Pashinyan is still preparing a suitable occasion for a telephone conversation with Erdogan and reminding him of his "New York request."

The Margara checkpoint on the Armenian-Turkish border will be open for the transportation of humanitarian aid to Syria for ten days (March 21 — 31). This decision was made yesterday at the next meeting of the Armenian Cabinet. As of this Friday morning, a humanitarian convoy from Armenia is preparing to proceed through the specified checkpoint.

The land border with Turkey remains closed to Armenia. The previous time this border crossing was opened in February 2023 to send humanitarian aid to Armenia to Turkey after a strong earthquake in the neighboring country.

Armenia's humanitarian aid to the Syrian people through the territory of Turkey will also be another signal from Pashinyan on his readiness to accelerate the process of normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations directly.