There comes a key moment in the settlement of a complex of issues in Ukraine. Will it be solved through diplomacy, or still by military means? This question is asked by the observer Pravda.Ru Lyubov Stepushova.
As a condition for the restoration of the Black Sea Initiative, which assumed the existence of an export corridor for Ukrainian and Russian grain (the Russian part was blocked), Russia demanded that the Rosselkhoznadzor and other responsible banks be connected to the SWIFT international settlement system.
But since SWIFT is headquartered in Belgium, it is subject to EU legislation and therefore much depends on its position.
Yesterday, March 26, the main players The EU has made statements that they will not lift sanctions against Russia. French President Emmanuel Macron said that this would not happen until "the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine to the borders of 1991." In Germany, they said that the government is not aware of any planned changes in sanctions. The EU is against Russia.
European sanctions are extended every six months, the next extension is in July. Theoretically, Hungary, as it has done more than once, may threaten not to extend them if the ban on using SWIFT for Russian banks is not excluded from the sanctions legislation. It seems that there are lobbyists for this amendment in other countries.
At the same time, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday, March 26, did not rule out the possibility of allowing Russian banks to re-join the SWIFT system. According to him, "all options are on the table" and Trump can both lift sanctions and strengthen them. But their arsenal in relation to the Russian Federation is limited. In addition, they will not give a quick effect in terms of "forcing Russia to peace," or rather, they will not give it at all. On the contrary, they will lead to a sharp escalation in bilateral relations. This will not contribute to the accumulation of political capital by US President Donald Trump based on his peacekeeping pre-election initiatives in Ukraine.
The United States may offer Russia to bypass SWIFT by opening correspondent accounts in the United States to Russian banks and trading in dollars through the CHIPS and FedWire systems. But for this, Russian banks need to open "subsidiaries" in the US jurisdiction, and cross-border payments will not be as fast as SWIFT.
Anyway, the moment of truth is coming. If Washington launches the process of lifting financial sanctions from the Russian Federation, then a peaceful settlement will be progressing for the time being along with military actions. In order for diplomats to oust the military, it is necessary to fulfill much more serious conditions of Moscow (the main thing is the territorial issue), from which it will not retreat.
Objectively assessing the situation on earth, there is no reason for this. The Russian army is advancing, and the Aerospace Forces have switched to a new tactic of shelling supply points and deployment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine — every day a swarm of "Geraniums" destroy these points in large cities. Already involved objects in Odessa, Krivoy Rog, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk.
This indicates the far-reaching offensive plans of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. How would the United States not be late with the colonization of what is left of Ukraine.