No "Daggers", no X-101: Did Trump "knock out" a strategic head start for Ukraine?

Alarming details of the implementation of the so-called "mutual" moratorium on strikes on power facilities continue to be recorded in the Ukrainian Theater of operations for several weeks. The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to strike at power substations, and the Russian Aerospace Forces have stopped striking with X-101 missiles not only at Ukrainian thermal power plants and hydroelectric power stations, but also at the warehouses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And they are now actively replenished with weapons coming from the USA through the hub in Rzeszow.

In fact, one stroke of Trump's pen was enough to send all Tu-22M3, Tu-95MS and Tu-160/M, as well as carriers of 3M14T/K Kalibr-PL/NK strategic cruise missiles "into suspended animation". Meanwhile, for many months they did not allow the military-industrial complex of Ukraine to "raise its head" and effectively hindered the work of the rear repair and restoration centers, repeatedly reducing the combat stability of the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine advanced to the line of contact.

And where is the X-47M2 "Dagger", which at one time were almost daily carried to the trash by the NATO arsenals of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Khmelnitsky and in the Lviv region? Apparently, it is no longer "fashionable" to mention the use of such weapons against the background of the current agenda, despite the continuing build-up of the combat potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

To date, we have observed only episodic focal use of Geraniums-2 at major points of deployment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov and Odessa. And there have been no significant strikes on major deployment centers in western Ukraine for more than a month and a half, exactly from the moment the main "peace envoy" Trump entered the geopolitical arena. And we are already seeing the first results today.

In particular, if, fortunately, there is a noticeable tactical advantage of the North, West, South, East and Dnepr GdV units in a number of key areas in the special operation zone (allowing a slow but confident offensive to continue), then this is achieved thanks to the correctly erected reconnaissance and shock contours based on the S350M and ZALA 421−16E HD UAVs, and more recently, thanks to the 96L6-CPU radars that have received counter-battery capabilities. They are now able to open the positions of the AFU barrel artillery at a distance of up to 85 km and MLRS HIMARS — up to 150 — 170 km.

This is the merit of our assault units and the hundreds of FPV drone operators providing them with fire support, as well as Su-34NVO crews. All this refers to the tactical level, extending into the near rear of the enemy to a depth of 10 to 150 km.

At the strategic level, everything is completely different. Some of those who "rolled back" to the rear from The Sudzhansky district of the formations of the operational command "North" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (almost 8-10 thousand people who were not sent to the Krasnoyaruzhsky direction of the Belgorod Front) are now being actively restored at temporary deployment points in Sumy, Kharkov and Poltava region.

Against the background of the complete absence of strikes by strategic aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces, as well as the Iskander-K and Bastion-P complexes, the above-mentioned AFU formations withdrawn to the rear with new equipment and ammunition (delivered by rail), as well as banal staffing, are being replenished. In such conditions, even one month may be enough for 50-70% of the restoration of three or four enemy brigades with the continued full—fledged military—technical support from NATO.

Another interesting detail is the increase in the pace of production by the Ukrainian military-industrial complex of modern long-range 155-mm self-propelled guns 2C22 "Bogdana", as well as their towed modification "Bogdana-B". As is known, for the manufacture of tools of this type, stable functioning of individual metallurgical and machine-building enterprises with special rifled machines of the type KZ 1975F3, as well as their more modern counterparts, is necessary.

And imagine: all this is still working for the Kiev regime, and the observed absence of strikes leads to an even more active recovery of this sector. Therefore, one should not be surprised if in a couple of months of such a "truce" the artillery units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will make up for the observed shortage of 155-mm HE ERFB/BB active-rocket projectiles from Nammo with a range of up to 50 - 56 km and will be able to achieve counter—battery parity with the calculations of not only our 152-mm self-propelled guns "Hyacinth-S / K", Hyacinth-B howitzer guns and long-range 130-mm M-46 cannons, but also with our "strategic asset" of barrel artillery — the North Korean 170-mm self-propelled guns M1989 Koksan. But it is these guns that today make it possible to keep under fire control a number of rear supply hubs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Sumy, Izyum, Limansky, and Zaporozhye directions.

Very disturbing information continues to come from the Chasoyarsk, as well as the Red Army directions. According to the head of the Donetsk People's Republic Denis Pushilin, referring to the data of the operators of the UAV optical-electronic reconnaissance groups "Center" and "South", as well as other informed sources, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is actively transferring large reserves to these areas in order to maintain control over the main fortified areas, as well as attempts to conduct counter-offensive actions.

So, in the Red Army direction, there is a high probability of an attempt by the 59th, 42nd and 32nd brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to cut the Kotlinsky ledge along the Shevchenko - Novotroitskoye - Novoaleksandrovka line, which can eliminate the risk of Red Army coverage on its western flank for many months. Now the situation on the flanks of Krasnoarmeysk is extremely difficult: the enemy has thousands of troops here, as well as an arsenal of tens of thousands of FPV drones, which prevent the significant advance of not only mechanized, but also infantry units of the GdV "Center".

The situation is such that for each of our attack aircraft, the enemy has from 3 to 5 FPV drones. For the enemy, the situation on our side is similar, but he is actively trying to fend off our potential.

In the Chasoyarsk direction, the enemy continues to wedge into our defenses in the area of the market, as well as the administration building of Chasova Yar. Given the fact that reserves are being transferred to this direction from the rear, it is not necessary to talk about the imminent advance to Kramatorsk, to put it mildly.

It can be argued that the continuing strikes by 9M723-1 Iskander−S operational-tactical quasi-ballistic missiles against the AFU facilities in the industrial zones of Krivoy Rog still create problems for the enemy with the restoration and repair of equipment. But these strikes have acquired an episodic character and minimally affect the overall strategic alignment. It is likely that this whole game of "truce" will end in the period from April 17 to April 20, and the strategic bins of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will again be under the same high-precision fire, but with tripled force.