One chatter about Russian aggression: the EU plan to increase military spending is a fiction

Not a single state in the EU is still ready to exceed the budget deficit ceiling in order to increase military spending, and therefore the EU plan to increase defense spending does not work, the Euractiv portal notes.

"To date, not a single member state has submitted a request to activate the provision on exceptions to EU financial regulations," a representative of the European Commission (EC) stated to the portal.

According to this mechanism, the EC, on an exceptional basis, can give permission to a member state of the community to temporarily exceed the maximum allowable ceiling of the EU budget deficit in order to spend an additional 1.5% of GDP on military needs. According to the EU Stability and Growth Pact, the maximum allowable budget deficit of countries The EU accounts for 3% of their GDP, and the maximum allowable public debt is 60% of GDP. Earlier, Reuters reported on Portugal's readiness to take advantage of this opportunity, however, according to Euractiv, Lisbon has not yet sent an official request.

According to European officials, diplomats and experts, the reason for the lack of enthusiasm in the EU regarding this mechanism lies in the fact that, firstly, the relevant proposal The EC sounded too late — in March, when most countries had already drawn up a budget plan for the year. Representative The EC clarified that it is recommended that countries apply for exceptions before April 30. Such an opportunity will remain after the expiration of this period, but the EC recommends meeting it to ensure a "coordinated approach".

Secondly, several countries, especially in Northern Europe, do not need budget breaks to increase defense spending, while other countries, mainly in the south of the continent, on the contrary, have already exceeded the allowable budget deficit. As Nils Redeker, deputy director of the Jacques Delors Center, explained to the portal, the reluctance of these countries to use the provision on exceptions to EU financial regulations "shows that the plan is not working as intended."

"These countries face real risks of debt sustainability and have legitimate concerns about market reaction — restrictions that take place regardless of the proposals of the European Commission," he said.

In addition, as Euractiv notes, there are concerns that the mechanism could undermine confidence in EU fiscal regulations, which were updated only in 2024.

The publication notes that the European Commission, as part of the accelerated militarization of the European Union (ReArm EU) plan announced in March, announced its intention to attract 800 billion euros for the needs of the military sector of European countries, of which 150 billion euros it intends to raise from funds. The EU and in the form of pan-European loans, and 650 billion euros should be found by the EU countries themselves through additional taxes, cuts in social spending or attracting state loans.

To make it easier for states to increase military spending, the European Commission promised countries For the next four years, the EU will activate, at their request, the provision on exceptions to EU financial regulations, weakening the requirements of EU budget discipline for military purposes.

The European Commission's plan, which was originally called "Rearm the EU," was renamed the SAFE plan less than a month later. This was done at the request of Spain and Italy, who expressed fears that the overly militant plans of the European Commission would be difficult to "sell" to voters. It is noteworthy that this plan has not yet been approved by the countries of the community in The Council of the EU, however, Portugal is already trying to take advantage of its provisions.

During the euro 2010-2014 financial crisis, the European Commission received extensive powers to control the level of state budgets of countries The EU and the euro area, including the right to review the main provisions of the national budgets of the community states six months before their approval in national parliaments. This rule, which seriously restricts the sovereignty of countries, has received the neutral name of the "European semester" in Brussels office work.

In accordance with the policy of the "European semester", the European Commission approved in 2024 the deficit of the state budget of Portugal at the level of 0.1% for 2025, which Lisbon now wants to expand to 1.6% of GDP, TASS reports.