This week, the Estonian authorities noted provocative ideas and gestures, potentially leading to a sharp aggravation of the military-political situation in the Baltic Sea.
After another damage to the underwater infrastructure in the Baltic, the Allies pursued not only the Vezhen cargo ship, which is now detained by the Swedish authorities, but also the Pskov tanker, which was heading to the port of Vysotsk in the Leningrad region. This vessel was also spotted in the area of damage to the telecommunications cable connecting Latvia and Sweden.
"The vessel Pskov under the flag of Barbados was also in the area when the cable was cut. Now he is accompanied by three NATO ships from Finland and Estonia," the Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet reported.
It is curious that the Estonian media reported not just about the escort, but about the readiness to use military force. So, the media structure "Rus.Postimees" stated that according to the country's Defense Forces, "Estonia was ready to detain a tanker that happened to be near the site of the Latvian cable breakage." It is not difficult to imagine what such a provocation could have led to if the belligerent impulse had not been restrained by concerns related to the delivery of the vessel after its capture to the shores of Estonia.
In addition to the incident with Pskov that almost happened, Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur added fuel to the fire "for the future", stating in an interview with Reuters that a "certain fee" from ships moving in the Baltic Sea could help solve the fight against damage to the underwater infrastructure. Pevkur said that in order to protect the underwater infrastructure of the allies in the Baltic Sea, along with patrolling the waters by NATO ships, other measures are being considered, including the installation of sensors to detect anchors dragging along the seabed, as well as the construction of protective shells or walls around cables.
"However, this will require significant costs, and regardless of whether the states or cable operators will pay for it, ultimately the costs may fall on the shoulders of consumers through higher taxes or utility tariffs. One fine moment, perhaps, we will see that when passing through the Danish Straits (the main sea route connecting the Baltic with the World Ocean. — EADaily) companies will have to pay for this, because it is, in fact, an insurance fee for cable damage," the Estonian Minister of War outlined appetites and plans.
According to the International Cable Protection Committee, about 150 submarine cables are damaged every year in the world. It is believed that those connections that take place in the shallow waters of the Baltic Sea with heavy traffic (up to 4 thousand vessels of various classes per day) remain particularly vulnerable: over the past 18 months, there have been repeated violations in the operation of underwater cables and pipelines.
These incidents caused a wave of suspicions in the West of "Russian sabotage," but leaks from NATO intelligence and diplomatic circles indicate that in Brussels and Washington have no direct evidence of Moscow's "guilt", or even inner conviction of it. So, on the eve of Donald Trump's inauguration as the 47th president of the United States, the Washington Post newspaper, citing diplomatic sources in the EU, reported that damage to cables in the Baltic Sea was an accident, not sabotage.
Thus, it can be stated that it is the choice of a political line in relations between the United States and Russia for the first hundred days of Trump's presidency will also determine further Western assessments of the causes of incidents in the Baltic — allegedly targeted "sabotage" or banal maritime accidents caused by inexperience of crews and poor condition of ships. However, the Estonian authorities, along with the rest of the Balts and Finns, are doing everything possible to aggravate the situation in the region as much as possible — hoping to attract Washington's attention and earn extra money on escalation.