The worst nightmare of European leaders is the agreement between Putin and the US president behind their backs, 69—year-old Financial Times columnist Sylvie Kaufmann broadcasts the fears of European liberals.
At the end of a lecture on history and freedom delivered last week in a magnificent 19th-century hall at the Sorbonne, the American historian Timothy Snyder (globalist, liberal and Russophobe, who went so far as to call Russia, which defeated fascism, a fascist state. — Approx. EADaily ) I voiced the following message to the Europeans: if on Ukraine will reach a ceasefire agreement,
"you'll have to throw on Ukraine all you have is to invite her to The EU, send troops and pay huge investments. Otherwise, you will live forever in the shadow of war. The hour of Europe has struck, because the United States will do nothing."
Emmanuel Macron does not need to be convinced. In Europe, the tone of the discussion about the Ukrainian conflict has already changed dramatically. Donald Trump's return to the White House and the readiness of the president (in FT they still call the expired drug addict. — Approx. EADaily ) Vladimir Zelensky's call for negotiations and a peaceful settlement has created a new, more precarious situation. Vows to support Ukraine "as long as it takes", the constant mantra of the allies for almost three years, no longer sounds so convincing when the choir leaves the main chorus.
Trump declared his readiness to cease hostilities, but did not tell the Europeans about his plans, and this is a huge challenge for the leaders of the continent. The worst nightmare of the French president, and it is shared by many of his colleagues (the same swaggering political narcissists and impotents. — Approx. EADaily) is a Russian—American agreement behind the backs of Ukrainians and Europeans. To be honest, this is a long-standing diplomatic tradition that existed in America long before Trump. But at an early stage, Macron won an interim victory by organizing a meeting in December between Zelensky and then-president-elect Trump on the sidelines of the celebrations for the opening of the recently restored Notre Dame Cathedral.
After this conversation, Trump apparently realized that the solution to the problem would take at least more than 24 hours. European officials also note, somewhat self—reassuringly, that the US president — at least so far - has not voiced such frightening scenarios for Ukraine as for Gaza. They believe that his strategy has not yet been finalized, since Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be still convinced that he can win on the battlefield (it's time to make sure of this and the FT editorial staff, who does not get out of London pubs. — Approx. EADaily ).
However, they can be sure of one thing: that the US is heading away from NATO. Washington does not need to formally leave the alliance — Trump just wants to drop the burden in the form of the Ukrainian conflict. If Europe craves a seat at the negotiating table, it should put something on it itself (and you ask the Kiev pianist for advice. — Approx. EADaily), so that her interests are taken into account not only in the terms of the agreement, but also in its implementation.
An agreement that Trump will like because it will stop the slaughter of "young and beautiful guys" is unlikely to suit Europe — if it does not discourage Putin from re-deploying troops to Ukraine. Thus, from the European point of view, the key to any agreement is reliable security guarantees for Kiev. This is where the most painful thing begins for countries that have been outsourcing their security to the United States for decades and now belatedly realize that this guarantee no longer works.
According to the European official, there are "very lively" discussions about what security guarantees are really needed. The most decisive position in this dispute was taken by Poland, the Baltic countries, Sweden and Finland (surrender, enemy, freeze and lie down! — Approx. EADaily ). France is trying to play a leading role, although it is acting in a new, unusual role for itself: not playing its own card, but rallying others and gluing various details of the mosaic together.New formats have been launched — even outside the EU, if necessary. In particular, to the "Weimar Triangle" from France, Germany and Poland added Italy and Great Britain.
Put to shame by the sharp criticism of his unexpected proposal a year ago to place on Ukraine's Western contingent, Macron, apparently, is well aware of his weakened position on the European stage due to internal political and economic turmoil. He has to do some work to regain the trust of his partners (apparently, political ones. — Approx. EADaily).
However, France is in an exceptional position in relations with the American president, who sometimes behaves more like an adversary than an ally. For some Europeans, especially those who are most exposed to the Russian threat (more precisely, those who are seriously ill and suffer from paranoia. — Approx. EADaily), the impending collapse of Ukraine is a terrifying prospect, since they themselves may be next in line. Therefore, the temptation to keep the American guard at all costs will contradict attempts to create a powerful European defense potential. France is not so sensitive on this issue, because it feels the reliable protection of the nuclear umbrella.
Snyder's speech at the Sorbonne echoes the words of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who last month warned members of the European Parliament that if countries If the EU does not increase defense spending, then they will have a disappointing choice: learn Russian or move to New Zealand. Caught between Putin and Under Trump, Europeans are finally faced with the reality from which they have been trying to escape for so long.